L2T Week 7

Worrying signs: Are 'some' College Football games becoming like NFL scripted drama plays with NFL refs and unsual play calling creating a scenario of lost momentum for the 'hot playing team' so that any key game can come down to the last 2 minutes or 30 seconds?

I watch football a lot like many of you. Why am I seeing what I am seeing especially with key moments in the big games lately in College Football? YES, I have seen it in past years in 1 game every few weeks but not every weekend.

- I want to see this pure sport preserved and not tainted like most pro sports 

- I want to see underdogs rise up and snatch a Top 5 rank with refs performing at their highest and fairest 

- I want to see normal decision making by coaches especially when points are immediately involved by their decisions

Got that out of my system!

Georgia and Alabama should be co-#1's after the refs botched that game! Unfortunately, my ratings system nor the Playoff committee would allow that but whether any other team can be squeezed in between them remains to be seen and the Buckeyes will have their chance to make a case, or the Irish depending on how they win and get better through the season. Miami has to get over their hiccups each season and Indiana, well, I am not sold on Hoover but the other components they have on their team are quite solid .... I think they should have lost that game but again, another team that got help from the refs!

Georgia's defense is sooooooo good (NFL like near the lines and defending against a team getting a first down), and realize for a change, they have 3 capable running backs and a gutsy QB who can do more than Stetson Bennett in my opinion when he was at his peak as a smaller QB but with greater receiver talent around him. DeBoer and staff planned their asses off for this game and it showed ....man, Alabama is talented!

I did not see the Dogs running on Bama in my idea of how the game would have gone because the Bama secondary looked weak this year at times.

Week 6 for me:

7 - 1   (+7.5)  *** 15 - 2 in the last 2 weeks on SIDES/TOTALS (my ESPN SP+ variance system is working!)

Season = 25 - 18

-note: so many good cappers this year and thank you for continuing your success....I use many plays in my parlays but my totals and sides are almost never copied, I find them myself with my head down trusting what my system provides me with options and then it comes down to decision making (** Thank you Wahoo for providing one of my side plays and thanks to you some of you for inspiring confidence for me to grab your suggestion to be used somewhere in my maze of parlay plays that I make locally for $5 - $10 or add to a TEASER which I won't do again until we get to bowl season)

-ColonelJim, you have become a new favorite to watch for as a thread and GeneralWiz, MAN you have to seen a lot more >>what a nice suggestion on Nebraska and number you got! (I hope you are pressing on plays like that)

Play #1 - Ohio St - Indiana UNDER 49.5 x 2U

-grabbing this one before it drops in my opinion

-13 - 10 was the score last year and will they double that?? I doubt it with the Buckeyes injury issues on the Oline being almost at a crisis in my opinion and even if healthy, I still think that number is too high given the backfield that Indiana has to run their offense as well as Nick Marsh at WR who can make plays anywhere on the field when Hoover needs him along with Becker at TE

- I don't expect a wide open game but maybe I am wrong?

- go have a look at the injury report for Ohio St

Play #2 - Texas -9.5 x 1 U

-I would go harder on this BUT, its hard to know how Sark will approach this game and my hope is, he continues to inspire Arch to throw down the field and this week, he faces a weak secondary 

-revenge game and Texas is an angry team for letting the Sooners backdoor them!

- Florida is a fraud and when they went to Missouri, they got stomped by 28 on the road 

-if I were Sark, I would put pressure on the Florida o-line like the can and wreak havoc all day long so Arch + RBs can methodically run sustained drives on this pukey defense of the Gators

Note: my new SP+ numbers show at +7 variance boost on the line for Texas so gotta take this despite perceptions of Texas losing the Red River rivalry

Why is the Buckeyes-Hoosiers game TOTAL already going up??? +1 to 50.5 in one hour already

Few teams are running on both teams lines .....is it the secondary that they see the ball moving up and down the field this week like crazy? Colandra seemed to do that quite easily BUT DID NOT THROW a TD!! 

Play #3 - Georgia -19.5 x HALF U

-thought about playing the UNDER here as well but noticed Auburn are ranked 111th for turnovers which you cannot do against Georgia so the better side here is a Georgia steamroll that prevents an average and exposed QB like Brown (7 TDs/7 Ints)

-prediciton of 9-14 points for Auburn

-Georgia should score 35-38 quite easily with their ball control and ability to get receivers open when needed 

the professor is back 

good luck this week amigo 

Thanks Hoo 

Only lines I have this early to work with are the big games 

You had a masterful week again...hoping to see many more and learning from you  best I could hope for is to be a Luke Skywalker occasionally but I doubt I will ever become Obi Wan Kenobi like you. 

If this Ole Miss line moves to -7 or -7.5, I might am liking Missouri

-yes they lost to Miss St on their first roadie test but they had some injury issues and got  back 11 players last week for TexAM game including many starters on the defense

-word is Lacy should be better but he does not strike fear in this Tigers team ....ALSO, Chambliss is hurting with a thigh injury which takes time to heal and the Tigers defense are all over the line of scrimmage chasing QBs 

-its an intriguing matchup

- my SP+ variance has a line 'near' Pick'em even with Ole Miss at home (-0.5 after home field accounted for)

only the strong survive brother 

If I could ever play drums like Neil Peart of Rush or like new prodigy Anika now ....talk about surviving a tough situation following in his footsteps >> jesus she handles this complicated song that is one of the oldest-greatest ever made by the band and a showcase for Neil initially when he first started 

https://youtu.be/19Fkty6KdVc  << Anika had a 7 day audition to handle 15 Rush songs and in an interview, Geddy/Alex said she was not surviving trying to nail Neil's style until the 5th day and everything clicked 

I met Geddy once ...what a great guy but would run into Alex Lifeson/chat/laugh occasionally over a quip at one of their unofficial home bars in Toronto on Sunday nights called the Orbit Room as an old girlfriend knew people there and they knew her 

I wish the Youtube line was working because I first heard this Texas band's song and thought WHOA!!! Good party song

Hellyeah > Alcohaulin Ass  https://youtu.be/SBaIQreV8Yk?list=RDSBaIQreV8Yk

A new fave on a Friday now! How'd I miss this one from 16 yrs ago? 

 Texas Tech -12.5 

** interesting line ** - Dillingham in a rebuild year and a strong coach 

-Joey McGuire a wizard coach on the field and in the locker room but sweating the healthy of Dickey at RB and likely not to play 

-Texas Tech building confidence .... Arizona St got scorched @ TexasAM early in season 

WATCHING INJURY REPORT on this one and I can see bettors making a case for both teams here (SP+ variance + home field has this one at team variance of -20.5 for TTECH)

best of luck

UGACLP thanks 

MACEO ...one of my faves to peer in on his early plays which are usually gold 

I am in wait of other lines to open up and doing my SP+ variances in the meantime

TEAMS IN PLAYOFF POSITION AFTER TODAY (Likely Seeding):

 1. Georgia ... could the Irish beat them right now? 

2. Notre Dame ...not so sure a pure pocket passer could beat Georgia? They have to be mobile   

3. Miami

4. Indiana

---------------------------------------------

5. Alabama < They are a top 4 team for sure

6. Texas

7. Ohio St.

8. BYU 

9. Texas Tech < weakeast team due to QB?

10. Utah

11. Missouri

12. Ole Miss  < weakest team due to defense?

------------------------------------------------------------

Best of the rest - Knocking on the Door

1. James Madison  << the only P6 undefeated but running out of gas 

2. UCLA - undefeated still!

3. Iowa

4. Tennessee  

5. Kentucky

6. Nebraska

7. USC 

8. Mississippi St.

9. Northwestern

10. Houston

11. SMU               

12. Oklahoma (2 losses)

13. Oklahoma St

14. Wake Forest

15. Wisconsin        

16. Boise 

17. Arizona                  

18. Baylor

19. LSU  (2 Losses)

20. Pitt

***i have eye tested every team above except Boise, Baylor, James Madison  and Utah

Next wave (best 2 loss/1 loss mix and 3 loss teams) >  Florida, Oregon, Michigan, New Mexico, Duke, Cincy,  Virginia, Viginia Tech, Liberty, Memphis, Minnesota, Kansas St, Kansas, Oregon St,  Texas AM, Louisville, North Carolina, Florida St, Arizona St, UNLV, NDST, UTSA, North Texas

Its frustrating ...BET365 is really good to me and I like the options so I won't go into something else just for an advantage of lines being available sooner or differences of HALF/FULL POINT. 

Its 730 pm EST and still....no full lines yet  Last week, I think I made 7 plays before the night closed 

Play #4 - UNDER 47 Akron-Mia Oh x 1 U

-traditionally, these two teams play this game to a low scoring affair and with the October winds and potential rain, it probably would EVEN IF two QBs are out and a slew of players for Miami Oh but they will give their Senior QB the reins again at home to a team that is coming around on offense BUT still has a weak defense

-does Miami Oh have to score more than 21-24? Probably NOT with their nails defense that went on the road to beat a UMASS team capable of scoring and they held them down the whole game until a late TD .....to make it close but could not convert the 2pt for the win....UMASS who has an offense that is rated 30 positions higher than Akron's 

-Miami manufactures 24-27 pts with  ball control on both sides of the ball/field position and Akron scores 13-17 and I am being generous for both points ranges perhaps

Play #5 Wyoming -7.5 x HALF U

-thought about taking this UNDER because weather will be an issue

-Wyoming has a good run game/strong home team and can grind on the other team so the second half could see them explode some runs against a team that does not stop the run very well and don't run much themselves which plays right into Wyoming's defense which has a strong secondary so I think Wyoming could win this game by a lot but these games can be easy to misread and the number at a -7 instead

-my SP+ variance is 12 pts for the home team so I had to buy this line

I want to go UNDER with the UNLV - AIR FORCE game but a history check shows high scoring games ....but if this climbs to over 47 I will go on it....

-UNLV is familiar with triple options or go-go options like they try running themselves and so it could be a cat and mouse type of game chewing up the clock and both teams with a bowl like record brewing, this one might actually tip the scales for a better bowl with a win

-AF with better SP+ and I am not worried about their regular QB being out since they  played their last one controlling the other teams offense and moving the ball up the field ..... both teams with the similar good defense rankings.....

I will come back to this one but pausing due to tradition of high scores

Likely one of my final plays..... I will dig around and look at other posters in the forum for ideas instead and angles that I could use in parlays

Play #6 - New Mexico -14 << bought the HALF PT x 3U

- New Mexico's defense is pretty much elite and healthy

- UNLV has a good defense but NM this year is on a whole new level (They held the Sooners to 14 pts and got 6 on the Sooners defense losing 14-6 on Sooner's home field) and Hawaii only scored 6

-Hawaii is in disarray and 1- 5 with no hope for a bowl....they score when they force the other QB into INTs and NM are disciplined with a strong run game and Hawaii's stats and rankings on defense are horrid this year compared to last 

NM plays N.Dakota St next week after this one and they will not lose focus on this game to go to 5 - 1 

NM SP+ overall rank = 29th 

Hawaii SP+ rank = 116th

Not worth overthinking this game and line.....

Time to move on what I said but toe in the water....

Play #7 - UNLV-Air Force Under 47.5 x HALF U

Good luck Last2thirst,  great reading and thanks for all you do. A must read every week. I agree that a lot of these games are getting hard to watch. That no-call has got to be one of the worst I have seen in my many years of watching.  It does seem it's getting worse every year. Anyways thanks again ,been here a long time and appreciate your insight with a few others.