On the hunt for some plays and felt compelled to make a play right out of the gate on a number that seems pretty low given what the team did to another Power 4 team already.
A check of Week 2 and I see this line did not work ATS on the road and also for two home favorites. Another check of another team on the road also failed to cover this number also .... Texas Tech could not cover -25.5 (-26.5 was the number for most of the week)
Play #1 - Miami -23.5 x HALF U
- toe in the water although if I had real courage, I would be pressing into this number
- we know Miami is deadly in the first 5-6 games of a year with big to medium spreads so I will play along.....I see nothing in WF that makes me shiver at the high number ....WF has a QB that does it on the ground or the air and one really strong receiver but I put my faith in this Hurricane defense and know their offense will not have a bad day most likely
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
2 - 3 last week
On the hunt for some plays and felt compelled to make a play right out of the gate on a number that seems pretty low given what the team did to another Power 4 team already.
A check of Week 2 and I see this line did not work ATS on the road and also for two home favorites. Another check of another team on the road also failed to cover this number also .... Texas Tech could not cover -25.5 (-26.5 was the number for most of the week)
Play #1 - Miami -23.5 x HALF U
- toe in the water although if I had real courage, I would be pressing into this number
- we know Miami is deadly in the first 5-6 games of a year with big to medium spreads so I will play along.....I see nothing in WF that makes me shiver at the high number ....WF has a QB that does it on the ground or the air and one really strong receiver but I put my faith in this Hurricane defense and know their offense will not have a bad day most likely
- Vandy recruited strongly and seem to have a decent combo at QB with a 5 star freshman mixing in with a seasoned former bench player behind Pavia as the starter.... I can see that the 5 star recruit is already paying dividends with 2 TDs in their last game
-Vandy with 5 starters on both sides of the ball returning and I think they will get better each week and grow to earn their 6.5 Win total with either 6 or 7 wins this season ....more likely the former
-NCST were picked for a 7.5 Win total with 14 starters in total returning but they had trouble with another ACC team in their first week getting hammered
- do I think NCST could surprise here? SURE ....which is why I am laying only the -4.5 for a HALF U
-Vandy with Auburn coming up and I think they will be motivated to perform better on both sides of the ball
-NCST with one more Non Conf game that looks winnable so I think their coach is hoping for a good game and some positive momentum but maybe it might be to much to go in and cover on a SEC team with reasonable upside
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Play #2 - Vanderbilt -4.5 x 1U
- Vandy recruited strongly and seem to have a decent combo at QB with a 5 star freshman mixing in with a seasoned former bench player behind Pavia as the starter.... I can see that the 5 star recruit is already paying dividends with 2 TDs in their last game
-Vandy with 5 starters on both sides of the ball returning and I think they will get better each week and grow to earn their 6.5 Win total with either 6 or 7 wins this season ....more likely the former
-NCST were picked for a 7.5 Win total with 14 starters in total returning but they had trouble with another ACC team in their first week getting hammered
- do I think NCST could surprise here? SURE ....which is why I am laying only the -4.5 for a HALF U
-Vandy with Auburn coming up and I think they will be motivated to perform better on both sides of the ball
-NCST with one more Non Conf game that looks winnable so I think their coach is hoping for a good game and some positive momentum but maybe it might be to much to go in and cover on a SEC team with reasonable upside
Eyeing the Alabama - FSU line and total .....will not reveal what I am looking for yet but have just looked at alternative lines so I am going to hope on the public to help me get a number I want
Eyeing UNC-Clemson line also .... QB for Clemson is questionable ....I had success fading CLemson on parlays yesterday and feel they could be ripe this year but a check of past games for UNC vs the Tigers looks ugly
Kentucky-TexAM total looks too low....gonna do some digging. My question would be, is the Alabama offense more opportunistic than this AM defense that cause all kinds of issues for Boley in the second half with turnovers ....and AM's offense is humming
Mississippi St +3.5 looks attractive but caution on such a low number for a second road game in a row facing an equal or slightly better opponent
App St -20.5 looks like a decent number if their offense is humming ....can't see Charlotte putting up too much of a fight but have to look into this
Play #3 - Colorado St +20.5 x 1U
- I think this is far too many points for BYU given that Jim Mora is coaching and Colorado St already put up 35 on a well rated Wyoming defense albeit obviously not as strong as BYU's
- do I see this number climbing to a safer number? Probably not so I am going to take it and root for a new favorite small school to follow....we have a neighbor in the community who played Defensive end for the Rams
Play #4 - Colorado /NW UNDER 47.5
- Deion has a powerful offensive line with a good run game and its hard to push around NW on their home field but they will try and to me, I think Colorado has a good defense after watching their game vs GTECH ..... NW with some interesting coaching and personnel changes but I think the +3.5 is a decent number to take but the more safe bet in this game is for one team to NOT score over 20 pts and therefore, a total of under 47.5 can be had
VTECH - MARYLAND and LSU - OLE MISS >>> leaning DOGGIE in both and think they are fantastic TEASER material
Best people shop around and not think these are reliable numbers given my record and notion that getting an early number is not always a good thing !
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Eyeing the Alabama - FSU line and total .....will not reveal what I am looking for yet but have just looked at alternative lines so I am going to hope on the public to help me get a number I want
Eyeing UNC-Clemson line also .... QB for Clemson is questionable ....I had success fading CLemson on parlays yesterday and feel they could be ripe this year but a check of past games for UNC vs the Tigers looks ugly
Kentucky-TexAM total looks too low....gonna do some digging. My question would be, is the Alabama offense more opportunistic than this AM defense that cause all kinds of issues for Boley in the second half with turnovers ....and AM's offense is humming
Mississippi St +3.5 looks attractive but caution on such a low number for a second road game in a row facing an equal or slightly better opponent
App St -20.5 looks like a decent number if their offense is humming ....can't see Charlotte putting up too much of a fight but have to look into this
Play #3 - Colorado St +20.5 x 1U
- I think this is far too many points for BYU given that Jim Mora is coaching and Colorado St already put up 35 on a well rated Wyoming defense albeit obviously not as strong as BYU's
- do I see this number climbing to a safer number? Probably not so I am going to take it and root for a new favorite small school to follow....we have a neighbor in the community who played Defensive end for the Rams
Play #4 - Colorado /NW UNDER 47.5
- Deion has a powerful offensive line with a good run game and its hard to push around NW on their home field but they will try and to me, I think Colorado has a good defense after watching their game vs GTECH ..... NW with some interesting coaching and personnel changes but I think the +3.5 is a decent number to take but the more safe bet in this game is for one team to NOT score over 20 pts and therefore, a total of under 47.5 can be had
VTECH - MARYLAND and LSU - OLE MISS >>> leaning DOGGIE in both and think they are fantastic TEASER material
Best people shop around and not think these are reliable numbers given my record and notion that getting an early number is not always a good thing !
Watching this VTECH - Maryland line ....don't know what to make of it, but VTECH hit -3.5 about 2 hrs ago in BET365 after opening at -2.5 from what I saw in the afternoon and now.....that -3.5 has come down to -2.5
I am eyeing Purdue @ UCLA line as well
James Madison - SDSU line and Total
UAB-ULL Total
LSU-Ole Miss Total and maybe the line ...how motivated is this crowd and OLe Miss team going to be to make Kiffin and players feel??
*** BYU-Rams line has dropped 3 pts from what I got at +20.5
Florida-Auburn line looks interesting
USC -24.5 @ Rutgers coming into new time zone smells a little high but Rutgers stinks...still???
SMU-Louisville Total seems high .....despite the offense both have, they both can play D as well
Losing interest in Alabama number....damn, not good for me
Toledo at home under a TD has me interested.....
Wyo/CMU low Total but maybe not low enough?
...just my initial thoughts after some movement today.....now its time to put in the work to compare a little more on some of these
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Watching this VTECH - Maryland line ....don't know what to make of it, but VTECH hit -3.5 about 2 hrs ago in BET365 after opening at -2.5 from what I saw in the afternoon and now.....that -3.5 has come down to -2.5
I am eyeing Purdue @ UCLA line as well
James Madison - SDSU line and Total
UAB-ULL Total
LSU-Ole Miss Total and maybe the line ...how motivated is this crowd and OLe Miss team going to be to make Kiffin and players feel??
*** BYU-Rams line has dropped 3 pts from what I got at +20.5
Florida-Auburn line looks interesting
USC -24.5 @ Rutgers coming into new time zone smells a little high but Rutgers stinks...still???
SMU-Louisville Total seems high .....despite the offense both have, they both can play D as well
Losing interest in Alabama number....damn, not good for me
Toledo at home under a TD has me interested.....
Wyo/CMU low Total but maybe not low enough?
...just my initial thoughts after some movement today.....now its time to put in the work to compare a little more on some of these
Toledo caught my eye… I lost on them opening weekend..had +9.5… they had lead in 4th qtr… but lost by 10… at mich st I believe… back home… maybe had week off… I like them to roll. CSU is improved… byu is national good these days… tough one. Great win by giants tonight… NFL.. Dallas in trouble already.
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@Last2thirst
Toledo caught my eye… I lost on them opening weekend..had +9.5… they had lead in 4th qtr… but lost by 10… at mich st I believe… back home… maybe had week off… I like them to roll. CSU is improved… byu is national good these days… tough one. Great win by giants tonight… NFL.. Dallas in trouble already.
KEY Florida Under 59.5 with LSU +3.5 with SMU +8.5
TBH, I thought about attacking the LSU -OLE MISS and tease it up to go UNDER but there might be an OT in this game with so much motivation on the line here.....
Florida with a better defense and coaching philosphy on defense and Auburn with some early O-LINE issues at times and Brown threw 3 INTs vs Baylor....what happens vs Florida with a better rated defense?
SMU is good on both sides of the ball and Jennings keeps you in every match with his arm or his legs.....over 1 TD is a good number with SMU's defense and Jennnings talent
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Play #5/6 - ROADIE TEASERS 7 PT - HALF U each
KEY Florida +4.5 with LSU +3.5 with SMU +8.5
KEY Florida Under 59.5 with LSU +3.5 with SMU +8.5
TBH, I thought about attacking the LSU -OLE MISS and tease it up to go UNDER but there might be an OT in this game with so much motivation on the line here.....
Florida with a better defense and coaching philosphy on defense and Auburn with some early O-LINE issues at times and Brown threw 3 INTs vs Baylor....what happens vs Florida with a better rated defense?
SMU is good on both sides of the ball and Jennings keeps you in every match with his arm or his legs.....over 1 TD is a good number with SMU's defense and Jennnings talent
@Last2thirst Toledo caught my eye… I lost on them opening weekend..had +9.5… they had lead in 4th qtr… but lost by 10… at mich st I believe… back home… maybe had week off… I like them to roll. CSU is improved… byu is national good these days… tough one. Great win by giants tonight… NFL.. Dallas in trouble already.
Toledo definitely was unlucky fumbling and throwing away the lead and the cover with 2 fast TDs for Sparty in last 4 minutes.... their coach is dynamite in my opinion and I like the number and eyeing it to take ATS
Thanks for the reminder MSKeets .... I could have used them in the teaser as well
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Quote Originally Posted by Mskeets:
@Last2thirst Toledo caught my eye… I lost on them opening weekend..had +9.5… they had lead in 4th qtr… but lost by 10… at mich st I believe… back home… maybe had week off… I like them to roll. CSU is improved… byu is national good these days… tough one. Great win by giants tonight… NFL.. Dallas in trouble already.
Toledo definitely was unlucky fumbling and throwing away the lead and the cover with 2 fast TDs for Sparty in last 4 minutes.... their coach is dynamite in my opinion and I like the number and eyeing it to take ATS
Thanks for the reminder MSKeets .... I could have used them in the teaser as well
@Last2thirst Toledo caught my eye… I lost on them opening weekend..had +9.5… they had lead in 4th qtr… but lost by 10… at mich st I believe… back home… maybe had week off… I like them to roll. CSU is improved… byu is national good these days… tough one. Great win by giants tonight… NFL.. Dallas in trouble already.
Concerning the NFL.... 84 guys out of 170 entries at $50 entry are out of our huge SURVIVOR 1 pool .... I saw some guys with multiple entries OUT by taking Chargers and Dallas
I faded Browns and jumped on Jacksonville and made it out in week 1 ....just have to survive the first 5 weeks I find and then usually I can place in the Top 4 we payout ....and once it gets to final 8, the convenor always pitches to each guy that they can stop it and each walk away with $1000+ in their pocket but I have never seen it finish ahead of time ......one year the final four took $1500 each and played for $2500 for the rest winner take all which I would do for sure
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Mskeets:
@Last2thirst Toledo caught my eye… I lost on them opening weekend..had +9.5… they had lead in 4th qtr… but lost by 10… at mich st I believe… back home… maybe had week off… I like them to roll. CSU is improved… byu is national good these days… tough one. Great win by giants tonight… NFL.. Dallas in trouble already.
Concerning the NFL.... 84 guys out of 170 entries at $50 entry are out of our huge SURVIVOR 1 pool .... I saw some guys with multiple entries OUT by taking Chargers and Dallas
I faded Browns and jumped on Jacksonville and made it out in week 1 ....just have to survive the first 5 weeks I find and then usually I can place in the Top 4 we payout ....and once it gets to final 8, the convenor always pitches to each guy that they can stop it and each walk away with $1000+ in their pocket but I have never seen it finish ahead of time ......one year the final four took $1500 each and played for $2500 for the rest winner take all which I would do for sure
I don’t do any of those survivor things… but off week one… I like Tampa week 2.. and possibly Houston… to play well week 2… no idea whom they are playing.
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I don’t do any of those survivor things… but off week one… I like Tampa week 2.. and possibly Houston… to play well week 2… no idea whom they are playing.
Btw…peeked at lines… Toledo -5.5… thought I saw 9 earlier. I used Toledo ml in a parlay…. Something has changed there… or I didn’t see 9.5 previously. Down 4 points as I see it.
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Btw…peeked at lines… Toledo -5.5… thought I saw 9 earlier. I used Toledo ml in a parlay…. Something has changed there… or I didn’t see 9.5 previously. Down 4 points as I see it.
Add in a home pt diff of +1-3 depending on the situation/crowd noise/record/coach tendencies and you can see why the lines are the way they are at .....as just 3 examples ....I am looking for a mistake
Between these 3, I can see Florida is the best situation on pt differential >7 pts for road team
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Best value according to SP+ differential:
OFF rank DEF rank
Florida (v) 33.4 (21) 14.5 (10) > rank total for both = 31 / pt diff OFF/DEF = +18.9
Auburn (h) 33.1 (24) 21.2 (44) > rank total for both = 68 / pt diff OFF/DEF = +11.9
Add in a home pt diff of +1-3 depending on the situation/crowd noise/record/coach tendencies and you can see why the lines are the way they are at .....as just 3 examples ....I am looking for a mistake
Between these 3, I can see Florida is the best situation on pt differential >7 pts for road team
TBH .... I think if I would have done my SP+ comparisons early on, I would have hesitated on a couple of my plays and have waited. That said, I found what I think is a 10 pt swing error for the home team
Play #7 - Iowa St -23.5 x 1U
Found some other value, but will wait to see what shakes out with the lines through the week
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
TBH .... I think if I would have done my SP+ comparisons early on, I would have hesitated on a couple of my plays and have waited. That said, I found what I think is a 10 pt swing error for the home team
Play #7 - Iowa St -23.5 x 1U
Found some other value, but will wait to see what shakes out with the lines through the week
-starter for UCF is out but, they backup pushed the starter in camp and he was a starter at FIU where he had 2 seasons of throwing over 60% and 2 yrs ago had 22 TDs and only 8 INTs for over 2500 yds
- I don't think they will miss a beat with this QB and I have them rated to win by over 28.5 pts with the strong lineup
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Play #8 - UCF -18.5 x HALF U
-starter for UCF is out but, they backup pushed the starter in camp and he was a starter at FIU where he had 2 seasons of throwing over 60% and 2 yrs ago had 22 TDs and only 8 INTs for over 2500 yds
- I don't think they will miss a beat with this QB and I have them rated to win by over 28.5 pts with the strong lineup
8 Plays done .... one of my early plays is one of the best values when you compare SP+ ...very happy with the line and there is still considerable room in the line!
I might lay 1-3 more plays .....if not otherwise use some of these in parlays and will reveal my soccer picks of the week later to wheel with some of my best plays and whatever I like from this group
Best visitor edges vs line using SP+: - in order of best line values (note, I have given home teams 3 pts for home field)
Nevada +10 > note starting QB did not play last game but might this game
Michigan St 6+
USC 6+ ** surprised by this !
New Mexico 5+
Buffalo 5+
Lousiana Tech 4+
N.Illinois 4+
Best HOME edges vs line using SP+:
UCF 11+
Col St 10+
Iowa St 10+
**mystery play 6.5+ << I am waiting for that extra HALF PT or FULL PT and will reveal before Saturday
ULL 6+
Sac St 4.5+
Texas AM 4.5+
Whether you agree with SP+ ratings or not, I have learned over the last 3 seasons they end up being quite spot on later in the season and usually early for most games and I find Vegas lines move toward their equalized differences
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
8 Plays done .... one of my early plays is one of the best values when you compare SP+ ...very happy with the line and there is still considerable room in the line!
I might lay 1-3 more plays .....if not otherwise use some of these in parlays and will reveal my soccer picks of the week later to wheel with some of my best plays and whatever I like from this group
Best visitor edges vs line using SP+: - in order of best line values (note, I have given home teams 3 pts for home field)
Nevada +10 > note starting QB did not play last game but might this game
Michigan St 6+
USC 6+ ** surprised by this !
New Mexico 5+
Buffalo 5+
Lousiana Tech 4+
N.Illinois 4+
Best HOME edges vs line using SP+:
UCF 11+
Col St 10+
Iowa St 10+
**mystery play 6.5+ << I am waiting for that extra HALF PT or FULL PT and will reveal before Saturday
ULL 6+
Sac St 4.5+
Texas AM 4.5+
Whether you agree with SP+ ratings or not, I have learned over the last 3 seasons they end up being quite spot on later in the season and usually early for most games and I find Vegas lines move toward their equalized differences
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