Posted:
#1
****Kansas @ TCU***** GAME OF THE WEEK
Been hot with my college game of the weeks, winning again last week with Navy +10 over Memphis. Navy clearly was the better team going in, but the media over hyped Memphis so much, that they forgot that Navy was as good or better.
But thats old news...what can I do for you today....
This is technical & situational 'cap for me....which to me are really my strongest plays historically.
The catch in this game is the situation TCU has this Saturday, and then what they have coming-up, and then the things they need to do this game to get by.
Lets look at the situational angle first:
TCU is clearly on the outside looking in ,as far as the National Championship argument, but to have any chance at getting there, they would need to run the table...meaning they would need to beat Kansas, then @Oaklahoma and finally beat Baylor at home.
Obviously, the push for a Championship argument would be due to their possible wins vs Oklahoma & Baylor, Kansas is pretty much just an assumed win (but needs to be viewed in a different way then previous TCU contests earlier in the year....)
If you catch where I am going here....I am saying that although you are probably reading about TCU being "mad" about last weeks sub par performance...and will take it out on poor old Kansas....I am telling you that's not who college football business works. Especially when a possible, though an outside chance of a title, is in play.
That being said, what you read about TCU being mad and toss it out the window,...you have to look at the bigger picture.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the most logical road for TCU is to win Kansas with risking and showing as little as possible, for (Oklahoma & Baylor to scout.)
With TCU star WR Doctson on the injury report, play or not, it would be insane to get him hurt in the Kansas game when they really need him for the last two games....The same can be said for all TCU starters. TCU running up the score on Kansas can not help them in the poles, so I just can't see TCU rolling up points and risking injury just to pummel Kansas, because they are mad. The goal is doing the tare minimum to beat Kansas and to keep as much in reserve as possible for the last two games.
So the handicap is that TCU will be able to do whatever they want verse Kansas, so after taking a lead of a few scores...TCU will go to a ball control run the clock as much as possible style offense. The type where they can burn 8 or 9 minutes of the third or fourth quarters by staying inbounds and bleeding clock. They will not run up the score, this would run contrary to the ultimate goal.
If TCU gets up 24 or 28, there is no motivation to run it up, it really would be best for them to get some reserves reps and get out as healthy as possible.
Kansas on the other hand has nothing to lose, and catching 6 TDs + another 3.5, leaves TCU plenty of room to win big and not cover. If Kansas can score they are gonna cover.
Take the Kansas Jayhawks this week, as we fade a heavy favorite with a double look ahead.
KU +45.5
Good Luck!!!!!!!!
0
ND burned me bad earlier this year when i made that kindof play on Umass. worked great, close at the half but pulled away and starters came in late 3rd with plenty of room...they scored another 30 or so.
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