I AM HUGE (0-0 YTD) WEEK 1 PICKS AND ANALYSIS

BYU -51.5 utah tech

It’s time to hammer BYU -51.5 like it’s the last buffet plate at a tailgate.

Look, I understand 51.5 points is an absolutely stupid number. It’s the kind of number that makes you check your phone twice to make sure you didn’t accidentally bet on the Harlem Globetrotters. But sometimes a spread is so enormous that it circles all the way back to being attractive.

Enter Utah Tech.

The Trailblazers just got introduced to Montana State football, and it went about as well as Michael Jackson in a G.I. Joe factory. Utah Tech lost 54-0, at home, to the defending FCS national champion. They managed just 227 total yards and 12 first downs, while Montana State scored on seven consecutive offensive drives. Utah Tech also surrendered a punt-return touchdown and an interception-return touchdown.

And now they get BYU in Provo.

That's like surviving a Mike Tyson punch and then volunteering to fight Apollo Creed.

BYU has plenty of firepower. LJ Martin rushed for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, while quarterback Bear Bachmeier threw for 3,033 yards and 15 touchdowns, completed 64.9% of his passes and added 527 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs.

Then there’s last year's appetizer: BYU beat Portland State 69-0. And according to the supplied analysis, Portland State last year was the better team than Utah Tech is this year.

The big question is whether Kalani Sitake keeps the pedal down. That’s the only thing standing between BYU and a cover. With Arizona looming in Week 2, BYU has every reason to run the ball, get the backups reps and get everybody healthy.

But even with the starters taking an early vacation, Utah Tech looks completely overmatched.

Nobody expects this to be remotely competitive and the defense will be proud enough to pitch a shutout.

My call: BYU 59, Utah Tech 0.

That's a 59-point margin, baby.

Lay the lumber.

BYU -51.5.

gl

@iamhuge

 Huge.....here's to a profitable season buddy....

BOL with week 1.......indy

I do like BYu! This team made hella money for me last season! 

Auburn -7.5 Baylor

I keep hearing that Auburn went 5-7 last year, as if somebody discovered this information on the Rosetta Stone and expects us to be impressed.

Yes. Auburn went 5-7.

They also lost six games by seven points or fewer. That's not “we suck” territory. That's “we have apparently hired the Ghost of Charlie Brown to manage the fourth quarter” territory. Auburn was one bounce, one kick, one competent decision or one fewer episode of Three Stooges: SEC Edition from having a very different season.

Baylor? Also 5-7.

But unlike Auburn, Baylor got repeatedly introduced to the concept of getting its ass kicked. Four of those losses were by double digits.

And when these two teams actually played last year, Auburn went into Waco and won 38-24, while running for 307 yards. 

Now we're told this game is at a “neutral” site in Atlanta.

LOL.

Auburn is roughly 100 miles from Mercedes-Benz Stadium. That's a 4 beer ride.  Baylor is coming from Waco. 

Then there's Baylor's defense,  The Mike Bears ranked 111th in Net EPA per play and 103rd in defensive success rate last season and allowed 32.6 points per game.

Their solution?

Hire a new defensive coordinator and hope everything magically works. Sure, Jan.

Meanwhile Auburn has Alex Golesh, who apparently intends to run the ball until somebody files a missing-person report on the Baylor defensive line. Golesh's South Florida offense went 9-4 last year, and he brought quarterback Byrum Brown with him.

Brown threw for 3,158 yards, 28 touchdowns and only five interceptions while adding 1,008 rushing yards.

So, yeah. Good luck tackling that guy.

And waiting for him is Jeremiah Cobb, who ran for 969 yards on 175 carries — 5.5 yards per carry last season.

Baylor's defense couldn't stop Auburn's running game last year.

Now imagine giving the Tigers a more dangerous running quarterback and then asking the same defense to stop them again.

That's not a game plan. That's a hostage negotiation.

Yes, Baylor QB DJ Lagway is ridiculously talented. But Baylor also has to replace its top five pass catchers and four offensive-line starters.

So we're basically asking Lagway to move into a new house where the furniture hasn't arrived, the kitchen is missing, and somebody stole four of the walls.

Sagarin has the Tigers about 10 points better.  The spread is Auburn -7.5.

That's the football equivalent of Vegas saying, “Fine, we'll spot Baylor eight points for having a pulse.”

I'm taking Auburn.

Lagway will make some plays. Baylor will score. TThen Cobb and Brown will start turning Baylor's defense into a group therapy session.

Auburn 38, Baylor 27.

And Hugh Freeze?  Don't worry, Hugh.  Nobody is asking you to "make the call" anymore.

villanova -26.5 BUCKNELL

Villanova -26.5 over Bucknell isn't a spread. It's an invitation to watch a superior football civilization invade a team that looks like it is still waiting for the new coaching staff to find the building.  The Wildcats come in ranked No. 17/18, went 12-3 last season, reached the FCS semifinals, and were picked FIRST in the Patriot League, collecting seven first-place votes. Bucknell? 10th. Dead last. The preseason coaches' poll gave the Bison 15 points. Villanova got 79.

That's not a difference. That's the football equivalent of comparing Taylor Swift's Eras Tour to karaoke night at a Motel 6.

Yes, Villanova lost 35-32 to William & Mary last week. But don't get fooled by the final score. The Wildcats were leading 32-22 with under three minutes remaining before an absolutely catastrophic sequence involving an onside kick, two field goals and a late touchdown. That's less "Villanova got exposed" and more "Villanova temporarily forgot how clocks work."  Meanwhile, Bucknell got introduced to Richmond and responded by losing 35-14.  Sagarin has Villanova rated higher than Richmond. 

The Bison couldn't run the football. Michael Cadden managed 24 yards on 12 carries, while the rest of the backfield produced just 29 yards. Quarterback Christopher Dietrich was sacked four times and threw for only 155 yards.

Now imagine that offense facing a Villanova defense that produced 12 tackles for loss and three sacks last week.

And Villanova's offense has legitimate weapons. Isaiah Ragland and Ja'briel Mace combined for 151 rushing yards and three touchdowns against William & Mary. Jake Hilton exploded for 132 yards on only four catches, including a 73-yard bomb.

Mace alone is basically a human cheat code, coming off 1,882 all-purpose yards last season and two kickoff-return touchdowns.

Villanova also owns a ridiculous nine-game winning streak against Bucknell, while the last Bison victory came in 1944.

That's not a rivalry anymore. That's an archaeological site.

The last meeting? Villanova 55, Bucknell 3.

I'm expecting another beatdown.

VILLANOVA -26.5.

The Wildcats win, cover, and send Bucknell into the locker room questioning whether this whole football thing was a good career choice.

Prediction: Villanova 45, Bucknell 10.

@iamhuge

 Yes thank you 

you son of a bich, im in!@! (on byu and auburn)

Great write ups!

by the way, these week 1 games are complete ass

Auburn sucks 

Auburn wins but does not cover. 0-1 on the week. 

Villanova is also ass...no way they cover.

Remind me not to bet Week 1 ever again

@iamhuge

 Clemson or LSU

Villanova wins a squeaker....0-2 on the week.

@hoopsvader

 I didn't bet it but if I had to I would take the points

glad I didn't bet it!

BYU covers...game goes exactly as handicapped (with the exception of BYU offering up a charitable TD).   1-2 on the week  33% ATS YTD.  Good luck to all!