Posted:
#1
46-47
If there is one thing I learned last season backing SDSU to take out Wyoming, it's to respect the confines of Laramie.
The fans are maniacs.
The wind whips around the place like a cowboy's lasso.
The temperature drops to freezing before you can blink, putting icicles on your RB's chin as you try to win the game, never mind cover the game.
I believe SDSU was stunned by what Laramie presented and on top of that Wyoming had one hell of a team last year.
So my new Destroyer is not SDSU, it is Laramie itself.
And the weather report looks oh so promising against a team that just removed a layer of sun tan lotion to play this game:
AccuWeather projects the temperature in Laramie to be 40 degrees at kickoff (8:15 p.m. Mountain Time), though it will feel like 33. Some precipitation is predicted both before kickoff and later in the game, with the possibility of sleet. Laramie has already seen some snowflakes earlier this week. Honolulu, by comparison, will be 85 and sunny when the game begins. Hawaii has never won in Laramie on a day when the temperature dipped below 36 degrees, according to Weather Underground.
So this pick is quite straightforward:
1. I'm getting precisely the weather I want, and best of all under the lights where the fans will be drinking all day for the game, recreating that SDSU upset atmosphere at home.
2. I'm getting the best line at the moment: The line opened at -7.5 on 5 Dimes and it has dropped a full 3 points to -4.5. That's a Dollar Store price when line shopping. (Yes, I stayed up until 3am EST to get it. I hope you're awake).
3. Josh Allen and the Cowboys couldn't have played any worse last week, creating this precipitous line drop. Squares clearly are influenced by the 'recency effect' and sharps are not immune to that either. On the biggest stage with the most scouts in attendance Josh Allen withered.
But this is STILL a team coached by the legendary Bohl and Allen's arms haven't been amputated; he's still a high first round NFL talent. And this game can certainly right the wrong that was the Oregon slaughter at home. Look for Wyoming and Bohl to pull out all the stops under favorable conditions to salvage a once promising season.
4. Allen literally may have cost himself millions last week. There's a way to earn it all back this week. That's motivation to say the least (especially against a defense that is inferior to Oregon).
5. Hawaii has impressed us with wins against...who?
A last second comeback win over winless UMass (who don't beat anyone....ever) where they needed 17 4th quarter points and a win over Western Carolina where they were outgained in the game?
After that they got drubbed by UCLA just like Wyoming got killed by the Ducks.
So if I get the weather I want (I do), the start time (I do), the health and same QB behind center looking for redemption (I do), the better coach (I do), 2 straight home games (I do), and a team that has never done well state-side coming from tropical weather into sleet (I do), the lowest line all week (I do), that will allow me to lay 4.5 imo. It's not a great line, but it's certainly a good one, especially if you are not yet writing Allen and the Cowboys (and Bohl) off. And I'm not. I hope you aren't either!
P.S. War Veterans will be honored on this day in War Memorial Stadium. Can't be a bad thing in terms of bringing a win home for them, particularly in a stadium named after memorializing them!
The pick:
Wyoming -4.5 over Hawaii
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