If KU has any more players leave the team , I may have to break my weeks 1 - 3 only rule and invest on the KU / KSU matchup on 11/29. The line is currently KSU- 25 very tempting
I'm obviously referring to the KSU side of that matchup
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
If KU has any more players leave the team , I may have to break my weeks 1 - 3 only rule and invest on the KU / KSU matchup on 11/29. The line is currently KSU- 25 very tempting
I'm obviously referring to the KSU side of that matchup
why only play first 3 weeks? Sounds Pointless and not worth the time. Very odd way to do things.
I wager using the ' Kelly Criterion " system . Instead of tying up capital for most of the season , I can turn it over 6 -8 times in that same time period. I find that a more prudent use of capital.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by TweetyBirdy:
why only play first 3 weeks? Sounds Pointless and not worth the time. Very odd way to do things.
I wager using the ' Kelly Criterion " system . Instead of tying up capital for most of the season , I can turn it over 6 -8 times in that same time period. I find that a more prudent use of capital.
doesn't it bother u not to play the big games conf titles, bowl games?
That's for people with a gambling problem.
For me it's business. I only wager on games where I see value. Some weeks there are no games worthy of a wager. I will probably find 12- 15 games a year that fit my selection process.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by TweetyBirdy:
doesn't it bother u not to play the big games conf titles, bowl games?
That's for people with a gambling problem.
For me it's business. I only wager on games where I see value. Some weeks there are no games worthy of a wager. I will probably find 12- 15 games a year that fit my selection process.
Gambling problem. well how about this? Lets say there is a few big revenge games in November or even October along with some things like key injuries that happen in the first few weeks. You cant play them now, Golden opportunity now gone. Am I right in a way? You are missing out on a lot?
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Gambling problem. well how about this? Lets say there is a few big revenge games in November or even October along with some things like key injuries that happen in the first few weeks. You cant play them now, Golden opportunity now gone. Am I right in a way? You are missing out on a lot?
you have to take the emotion out of it...that's what sharps do...its just business. one must look for value...to have sustainable success...and one must be selective...
and I need to put this into practice starting in week 1...if you have 4 potential picks and you believe those 4 have an 80% to 90% chance of covering, then pick the best 2 of those 4 and place a wager...sure, you miss out on some payouts, but in the long term, you have a more sustainable strategy...the first few weeks, prima facie, it feels like a kid in the candy store, but if you dig deeper, you can find ways to refine your picks and build early discipline that will sustain you into October and November...
wise guy hit over 80% during the season being selective...he knows what he is talking about. I plan to make no more than 30 wagers during the entire college football regular season in 2014, and I hope that is closer to 20...
less than 2.5 months until kick off!
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
That's for people with a gambling problem.
For me it's business. I only wager on games where I see value. Some weeks there are no games worthy of a wager. I will probably find 12- 15 games a year that fit my selection process.
LonghornHoosier
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right on wise guy...
you have to take the emotion out of it...that's what sharps do...its just business. one must look for value...to have sustainable success...and one must be selective...
and I need to put this into practice starting in week 1...if you have 4 potential picks and you believe those 4 have an 80% to 90% chance of covering, then pick the best 2 of those 4 and place a wager...sure, you miss out on some payouts, but in the long term, you have a more sustainable strategy...the first few weeks, prima facie, it feels like a kid in the candy store, but if you dig deeper, you can find ways to refine your picks and build early discipline that will sustain you into October and November...
wise guy hit over 80% during the season being selective...he knows what he is talking about. I plan to make no more than 30 wagers during the entire college football regular season in 2014, and I hope that is closer to 20...
less than 2.5 months until kick off!
Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
That's for people with a gambling problem.
For me it's business. I only wager on games where I see value. Some weeks there are no games worthy of a wager. I will probably find 12- 15 games a year that fit my selection process.
Hell if I have 4 games that I believe have a 90% chance of covering and I DON'T BET THEM, I would hope someone would slap the $hit out of me. That's basically a gimmie
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Hell if I have 4 games that I believe have a 90% chance of covering and I DON'T BET THEM, I would hope someone would slap the $hit out of me. That's basically a gimmie
Ya must play the season. I don't recommend this to anyone. we are here to play this sucker out.
Please stop posting to my thread as you can't seem to grasp the fact that I do bet the entire season. Regarding the Golden Nugget GOY's I only wager on the first 3 weeks.I'm done trying to explain this to you. Please do not post a rely.
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by TweetyBirdy:
Ya must play the season. I don't recommend this to anyone. we are here to play this sucker out.
Please stop posting to my thread as you can't seem to grasp the fact that I do bet the entire season. Regarding the Golden Nugget GOY's I only wager on the first 3 weeks.I'm done trying to explain this to you. Please do not post a rely.
I wager using the ' Kelly Criterion " system . Instead of tying up capital for most of the season , I can turn it over 6 -8 times in that same time period. I find that a more prudent use of capital.
Absolutely agree! Keep an eye on GOY lines as the season goes, and jump on them 2-3 weeks before the game. You won't see drastic line moves on most games until the week of the game. You only see 1 to 2 point moves during the early weeks... but you can get great value a couple weeks before kick off. In meantime, use your bankroll to build your bankroll steadily throughout the season.
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
I wager using the ' Kelly Criterion " system . Instead of tying up capital for most of the season , I can turn it over 6 -8 times in that same time period. I find that a more prudent use of capital.
Absolutely agree! Keep an eye on GOY lines as the season goes, and jump on them 2-3 weeks before the game. You won't see drastic line moves on most games until the week of the game. You only see 1 to 2 point moves during the early weeks... but you can get great value a couple weeks before kick off. In meantime, use your bankroll to build your bankroll steadily throughout the season.
Gambling problem. well how about this? Lets say there is a few big revenge games in November or even October along with some things like key injuries that happen in the first few weeks. You cant play them now, Golden opportunity now gone. Am I right in a way? You are missing out on a lot?
HOLY CRAP....
*WG is referring to the Games of the Year at the Nugget ONLY NOT the entire season....
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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Quote Originally Posted by TweetyBirdy:
Gambling problem. well how about this? Lets say there is a few big revenge games in November or even October along with some things like key injuries that happen in the first few weeks. You cant play them now, Golden opportunity now gone. Am I right in a way? You are missing out on a lot?
HOLY CRAP....
*WG is referring to the Games of the Year at the Nugget ONLY NOT the entire season....
*WG is referring to the Games of the Year at the Nugget ONLY NOT the entire season....
BA ,
What did you think of those early line moves I posted ? sorry I didn't have time to post them all but I got them off the Linemaker site if anyone wants to check out the rest of the season's games.
BA
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
HOLY CRAP....
*WG is referring to the Games of the Year at the Nugget ONLY NOT the entire season....
BA ,
What did you think of those early line moves I posted ? sorry I didn't have time to post them all but I got them off the Linemaker site if anyone wants to check out the rest of the season's games.
What did you think of those early line moves I posted ? sorry I didn't have time to post them all but I got them off the Linemaker site if anyone wants to check out the rest of the season's games.
BA
My observations are that it seems that line moves were minor in most of the matchups and that I there seems to be a very high opinion of teams like FSU and Oregon I can't make significant "future bets" on FSU as they could be a J.W. " shopping spree " away from potential disaster.
BA
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
BA ,
What did you think of those early line moves I posted ? sorry I didn't have time to post them all but I got them off the Linemaker site if anyone wants to check out the rest of the season's games.
BA
My observations are that it seems that line moves were minor in most of the matchups and that I there seems to be a very high opinion of teams like FSU and Oregon I can't make significant "future bets" on FSU as they could be a J.W. " shopping spree " away from potential disaster.
My observations are that it seems that line moves were minor in most of the matchups and that I there seems to be a very high opinion of teams like FSU and Oregon I can't make significant "future bets" on FSU as they could be a J.W. " shopping spree " away from potential disaster.
BA
or a hot "date."
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
My observations are that it seems that line moves were minor in most of the matchups and that I there seems to be a very high opinion of teams like FSU and Oregon I can't make significant "future bets" on FSU as they could be a J.W. " shopping spree " away from potential disaster.
One thing I noticed generally in the Golden NuggetGOY lines is that the teams the " public " likes to bet , are IMO somewhat expensive. In other words, the public likes to bet favorites , and the books know this , but the public tends to bet them anyway. so they make their lines accordingly. To be successful in that case, it is even more important to understand the concept of " value " in making a wager. It helps to guide you in your analysis as to where your best chance for success lies when you decide to make a wager. When I make a selection, it is based on my numerical rating of one team versus another, but it takes into consideration one teams capabilities to score and defend versus their opponent.Very important. You can have a " power rating" but they are meaningless when the teams you select do not match up well. When you have a handicapping strategy that is able to show you the relative value in a matchup , you can then take either side of the wager, thereby negating books efforts in shading the numbers and thinking they have an edge. This does not happen without taking a hard look at your potential selections every week, and digging deep to confirm your due diligence. Once you are able to accomplish this on a consistent basis you will find opportunity every week.
Best of Luck to all
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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To All:
One thing I noticed generally in the Golden NuggetGOY lines is that the teams the " public " likes to bet , are IMO somewhat expensive. In other words, the public likes to bet favorites , and the books know this , but the public tends to bet them anyway. so they make their lines accordingly. To be successful in that case, it is even more important to understand the concept of " value " in making a wager. It helps to guide you in your analysis as to where your best chance for success lies when you decide to make a wager. When I make a selection, it is based on my numerical rating of one team versus another, but it takes into consideration one teams capabilities to score and defend versus their opponent.Very important. You can have a " power rating" but they are meaningless when the teams you select do not match up well. When you have a handicapping strategy that is able to show you the relative value in a matchup , you can then take either side of the wager, thereby negating books efforts in shading the numbers and thinking they have an edge. This does not happen without taking a hard look at your potential selections every week, and digging deep to confirm your due diligence. Once you are able to accomplish this on a consistent basis you will find opportunity every week.
I'm obviously referring to the KSU side of that matchup
Hate to sound like a broken record here....I crunched some numbers a several years back and harp on this every season when the KU game rolls around. Snyder covers the spread by comfortable double digits when you throw out the Ron Prince years (throw out a couple of Snyder "down" years, and it's 17 points beyond the spread. Tthis will not be a Snyder "down" year, btw).
I hit it every time...it could be a loser some day soon...but I don't care. I just keep pounding it. Snyder likes to give the alum and fans some reprieve from the hoops beatings..it's money.
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
I'm obviously referring to the KSU side of that matchup
Hate to sound like a broken record here....I crunched some numbers a several years back and harp on this every season when the KU game rolls around. Snyder covers the spread by comfortable double digits when you throw out the Ron Prince years (throw out a couple of Snyder "down" years, and it's 17 points beyond the spread. Tthis will not be a Snyder "down" year, btw).
I hit it every time...it could be a loser some day soon...but I don't care. I just keep pounding it. Snyder likes to give the alum and fans some reprieve from the hoops beatings..it's money.
Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma Sooners -14 *OU off Horns...KSU off bye...Snyder 31-11-1 ATS B12
Kansas State Wildcats -4 at TCU Horned Frogs *KSU off Okie St...with UT and OU before
yep yep...will be keeping an eye on both...we'll see how it goes. KSU faithful don't even mention TCU or WVU as a threat (both are consecutive roadies after the OU, UT, OSU grind). Conf is like the soap "As the World Turns"...better have some depth and luck.
OU- going back to '05, they have mopped up the next week after UT (and I believe the week before- I'd have to check)...funny how many of those games where they mopped up following Texas- their opponent was KU. Wow...how does that kind of conf scheduling happen?
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Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma Sooners -14 *OU off Horns...KSU off bye...Snyder 31-11-1 ATS B12
Kansas State Wildcats -4 at TCU Horned Frogs *KSU off Okie St...with UT and OU before
yep yep...will be keeping an eye on both...we'll see how it goes. KSU faithful don't even mention TCU or WVU as a threat (both are consecutive roadies after the OU, UT, OSU grind). Conf is like the soap "As the World Turns"...better have some depth and luck.
OU- going back to '05, they have mopped up the next week after UT (and I believe the week before- I'd have to check)...funny how many of those games where they mopped up following Texas- their opponent was KU. Wow...how does that kind of conf scheduling happen?
Hate to sound like a broken record here....I crunched some numbers a several years back and harp on this every season when the KU game rolls around. Snyder covers the spread by comfortable double digits when you throw out the Ron Prince years (throw out a couple of Snyder "down" years, and it's 17 points beyond the spread. Tthis will not be a Snyder "down" year, btw).
I hit it every time...it could be a loser some day soon...but I don't care. I just keep pounding it. Snyder likes to give the alum and fans some reprieve from the hoops beatings..it's money.
Amen, Brother
KSU
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by ksuwins:
Hate to sound like a broken record here....I crunched some numbers a several years back and harp on this every season when the KU game rolls around. Snyder covers the spread by comfortable double digits when you throw out the Ron Prince years (throw out a couple of Snyder "down" years, and it's 17 points beyond the spread. Tthis will not be a Snyder "down" year, btw).
I hit it every time...it could be a loser some day soon...but I don't care. I just keep pounding it. Snyder likes to give the alum and fans some reprieve from the hoops beatings..it's money.
Snyder vs KU is 17-1 SU.....16-2 ATS (89%) *home (8-1) he covers by an average of 11 points away (8-1) he covers by an average of 19 points
*an excellent example of how to use trends
Does this SUGGEST a play?....... does the pope s-h-i-t in the woods?........> check out the match-up/ situation...if this is favorable also = strong play
Let's say for whatever reason you like Kansas TY.... KSt is 6-4...played poorly at WV...about to get hammered at Baylor the following week....KU D is (somehow) tough vs the run / playing well....do you pull the trigger?....as KU is certainly DUE to cover..... NOPE....better move on to the next one....don't fade a 90% winner
This is probably (one of the few) cases where simply betting a trend is OK....
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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Since 1993....
Snyder vs KU is 17-1 SU.....16-2 ATS (89%) *home (8-1) he covers by an average of 11 points away (8-1) he covers by an average of 19 points
*an excellent example of how to use trends
Does this SUGGEST a play?....... does the pope s-h-i-t in the woods?........> check out the match-up/ situation...if this is favorable also = strong play
Let's say for whatever reason you like Kansas TY.... KSt is 6-4...played poorly at WV...about to get hammered at Baylor the following week....KU D is (somehow) tough vs the run / playing well....do you pull the trigger?....as KU is certainly DUE to cover..... NOPE....better move on to the next one....don't fade a 90% winner
This is probably (one of the few) cases where simply betting a trend is OK....
Snyder vs KU is 17-1 SU.....16-2 ATS (89%) *home (8-1) he covers by an average of 11 points away (8-1) he covers by an average of 19 points
*an excellent example of how to use trends
Does this SUGGEST a play?....... does the pope s-h-i-t in the woods?........> check out the match-up/ situation...if this is favorable also = strong play
Let's say for whatever reason you like Kansas TY.... KSt is 6-4...played poorly at WV...about to get hammered at Baylor the following week....KU D is (somehow) tough vs the run / playing well....do you pull the trigger?....as KU is certainly DUE to cover..... NOPE....better move on to the next one....don't fade a 90% winner This is probably (one of the few) cases where simply betting a trend is OK....
BA, As you well know, I'm not a trend bettor, but in this particular matchup , with KSU , and Bill Snyder this game is personal. and like ksuwins, I have done well wagering on this matchup. I will wait to bet it, but this game will be on my radar.
BA
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:
Since 1993....
Snyder vs KU is 17-1 SU.....16-2 ATS (89%) *home (8-1) he covers by an average of 11 points away (8-1) he covers by an average of 19 points
*an excellent example of how to use trends
Does this SUGGEST a play?....... does the pope s-h-i-t in the woods?........> check out the match-up/ situation...if this is favorable also = strong play
Let's say for whatever reason you like Kansas TY.... KSt is 6-4...played poorly at WV...about to get hammered at Baylor the following week....KU D is (somehow) tough vs the run / playing well....do you pull the trigger?....as KU is certainly DUE to cover..... NOPE....better move on to the next one....don't fade a 90% winner This is probably (one of the few) cases where simply betting a trend is OK....
BA, As you well know, I'm not a trend bettor, but in this particular matchup , with KSU , and Bill Snyder this game is personal. and like ksuwins, I have done well wagering on this matchup. I will wait to bet it, but this game will be on my radar.
What did you think of those early line moves I posted ? sorry I didn't have time to post them all but I got them off the Linemaker site if anyone wants to check out the rest of the season's games.
BA
agree with most.... BYU I wouldn't get too excited about ....
week 1 maybe best to avoid any uncertainty... *we have NO IDEA if UConn is gonna be tough or terrible they have covered 80% of the time as a home dog regardless who's their HC.....and BYU has Texas on deck
This guy has broken the GOY stuff down from about every angle
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:
BA ,
What did you think of those early line moves I posted ? sorry I didn't have time to post them all but I got them off the Linemaker site if anyone wants to check out the rest of the season's games.
BA
agree with most.... BYU I wouldn't get too excited about ....
week 1 maybe best to avoid any uncertainty... *we have NO IDEA if UConn is gonna be tough or terrible they have covered 80% of the time as a home dog regardless who's their HC.....and BYU has Texas on deck
This guy has broken the GOY stuff down from about every angle
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