Statistic
Duke
Georgia Tech
Advantage
Offensive yards per game
466.2
370.0
Duke
First downs per game
22.3
About 21
Duke
Offensive yards per play
6.8
5.2
Duke
Red-zone scoring rate
15 of 18 (83.3%)
Duke
Red-zone touchdown rate
12 of 18 (66.7%)
Duke
Defensive yards allowed per game
261.8
About 400
Duke
Defensive yards allowed per play
4.5
About 6.0
Duke
Opponent first downs per game
13.8
About 21
Duke
Duke has the clear statistical advantage. The Blue Devils average 466.2 yards and 6.8 yards per play. They also earn more than 22 first downs per game. Those numbers show that Duke can create long drives and explosive plays.
Georgia Tech averages about 370 yards and 5.2 yards per play. Those numbers are not terrible, but the Yellow Jackets have been less consistent. They are also converting only 34.5% of their third downs, which makes it harder to keep drives alive.
Georgia Tech should play better at home than its record suggests. Still, Duke is stronger in every category used for this prediction. The Blue Devils move the ball more efficiently, create more first downs, and allow far fewer yards.
Final Score: 34-17 Duke
Statistic
Duke
Georgia Tech
Advantage
Offensive yards per game
466.2
370.0
Duke
First downs per game
22.3
About 21
Duke
Offensive yards per play
6.8
5.2
Duke
Red-zone scoring rate
15 of 18 (83.3%)
Duke
Red-zone touchdown rate
12 of 18 (66.7%)
Duke
Defensive yards allowed per game
261.8
About 400
Duke
Defensive yards allowed per play
4.5
About 6.0
Duke
Opponent first downs per game
13.8
About 21
Duke
Duke has the clear statistical advantage. The Blue Devils average 466.2 yards and 6.8 yards per play. They also earn more than 22 first downs per game. Those numbers show that Duke can create long drives and explosive plays.
Georgia Tech averages about 370 yards and 5.2 yards per play. Those numbers are not terrible, but the Yellow Jackets have been less consistent. They are also converting only 34.5% of their third downs, which makes it harder to keep drives alive.
Georgia Tech should play better at home than its record suggests. Still, Duke is stronger in every category used for this prediction. The Blue Devils move the ball more efficiently, create more first downs, and allow far fewer yards.
Air Force holds the advantage in every main category. The Falcons gain about 90 more yards per game and nearly five more first downs. Their option offense also leads the Mountain West with 297.3 rushing yards per game.
NIU's biggest problem is turning yards into points. The Huskies average 300.3 yards but score only 13.8 points per game. They have reached the red zone 10 times and scored on only four of those trips.
Recent-game check
Air Force's season averages are helped by several big rushing performances, but its latest game was much slower. The Falcons beat Navy 14-9 while gaining:
270 TTL YDs
17 FDs
3.8 yds per play
2 scores in 2 RZ trips
That shows Air Force can win a low-scoring game even when its offense is not explosive.
NIU gained 432 yards and 24 first downs against Georgia State in its latest game. However, it scored only 14 points, went 1-for-4 in the red zone, and lost 35-14. That poor red-zone performance is a major warning sign.
Prediction
NIU is at home and recently showed that it can move the ball. However, Air Force controls the clock, earns more first downs, and finishes red-zone drives at a much higher rate.
Final Score : 31-17 AF
Air Force holds the advantage in every main category. The Falcons gain about 90 more yards per game and nearly five more first downs. Their option offense also leads the Mountain West with 297.3 rushing yards per game.
NIU's biggest problem is turning yards into points. The Huskies average 300.3 yards but score only 13.8 points per game. They have reached the red zone 10 times and scored on only four of those trips.
Recent-game check
Air Force's season averages are helped by several big rushing performances, but its latest game was much slower. The Falcons beat Navy 14-9 while gaining:
270 TTL YDs
17 FDs
3.8 yds per play
2 scores in 2 RZ trips
That shows Air Force can win a low-scoring game even when its offense is not explosive.
NIU gained 432 yards and 24 first downs against Georgia State in its latest game. However, it scored only 14 points, went 1-for-4 in the red zone, and lost 35-14. That poor red-zone performance is a major warning sign.
Prediction
NIU is at home and recently showed that it can move the ball. However, Air Force controls the clock, earns more first downs, and finishes red-zone drives at a much higher rate.