Floatin NCAAF Week 7

17-8-1 YTD

AF put the smash down on NIU, hell yeah, then UCLA with upset! what a great weekend

Bulldawgs leggo!

poor LSU, im feel bad for them'

Notre Dame is real

Point Play #1

Rice vs Tulsa

Tulsa -4

When Tulsa travels to Rice on Saturday, the game sets up as a matchup between an offense that finishes and an offense that sputters, and the argument for each side runs through the same four numbers. For Tulsa, the case is straightforward: the Golden Hurricane average 357.8 yards and 17.7 first downs per game against Rice's 313.2 yards, and Tulsa's 3-3 record includes a road win at Oklahoma State and a 42-0 shutout, while Rice sits at 1-5 with its only win coming against Houston Christian of the FCS. More importantly, Tulsa's red-zone efficiency (15 of 17, with 13 touchdowns on 76.5%) is the sharpest weapon either team brings, and Rice has scored on only 10 of 16 red-zone trips with a 62.5% touchdown rate, so if Tulsa can simply reach the 20 a few times, its superior finishing should produce more points than Rice can answer. Tulsa's own turnover margin has been friendlier too, with just one interception thrown against seven takeaways, and a defense allowing 23.3 points per game against Rice's offense that has mustered only 18.0 points per game behind a passing attack averaging a meager 85.4 yards per game — the lowest-producing sector of either team — which suggests Rice's drive-sustaining ability will be limited by a one-dimensional, run-heavy look that Tulsa has already shown it can handle. Add that Tulsa's 41.3% third-down conversion rate allowed is slightly better than Rice's 41.7%, and the case is that Tulsa will own the ball, finish drives, and win by two scores. Against that, Rice's argument is that this game is a coin flip played at home against a flawed opponent, and that every edge Tulsa holds is narrow enough to be erased by a single break. Both offenses convert third downs at roughly the same feeble rate (Rice 29.5%, Tulsa 28.4%), so neither should expect to sustain long marches, and Rice's defense has been marginally better than Tulsa's at getting off the field, which means the possession math could tilt toward the Owls on their own field. Rice can point to a run game quietly averaging 243.8 yards per game, built on a scheme that crowds the box and chews clock, a weapon that travels well against a Tulsa front that let Navy gash it for 386 rushing yards; if Rice repeats that, it can shorten the game, keep Tulsa's offense off the field, and turn the contest into exactly the low-possession scrap in which the Owls have been competitive — three of their five losses came by eight points or fewer, including a 16-14 UTSA result and a 12-28 battle with East Carolina that was 7-3 at halftime. Rice also owns the red-zone edge on defense, allowing scores on 73.9% of opponent trips against Tulsa's 73.1%, which is essentially even, and its 29.5% third-down conversion mark on offense actually edges Tulsa's 28.4% — meaning if anyone should catch a lucky third-down break, the numbers mildly favor the Owls. If Rice's ball control keeps Tulsa's drive count to seven or eight, and Rice converts two of its own red-zone visits while Tulsa stumbles once inside the 20, the game lands right on the three-point line and the home side can steal it; taken together, the two cases meet in the same place — Tulsa should generate more yards and finish more trips, but only if the game stays open enough for its offense to get the snaps, and Rice's only path is to run the ball, shorten the clock, and make Tulsa score on a small number of chances.

Final score 34-27 Tulsa

I'm very aware of my recent performance. Steppin Up my game

Point Play #2

Colorado vs Utah

Utah-15'

Utah visits Folsom Field on Saturday. The Utes are 5-0 (2-0 Big 12) and ranked No. 11; Colorado is 2-3 (0-2 Big 12) and riding a three-game losing streak. I did not use betting odds.

When Utah walks into Folsom Field on Saturday night as the No. 11 team in the country with a 5-0 record, the case for the Utes is not built on a single advantage but on a stack of them, and every one of them runs through the same four numbers we have been using all along. Utah averages 491.3 yards per game against Colorado's 399.0, converts 54.2% of third downs against Colorado's 35.1%, scores on 90.5% of its red-zone trips with a 76.2% touchdown rate against Colorado's 72.7% and 45.5%, and allows only about 262 yards per game on defense while the Buffaloes give up 355.0. That last number matters more than it looks, because Utah's offense is the one unit in this matchup that does not have an obvious weakness: the Utes rush for 225.8 yards per game (21st nationally) and throw for 265.5 (41st), which means there is no single thing Colorado's defense can take away and still win. Add in that Utah's defense holds opponents to a 29.3% third-down conversion rate — the best defensive third-down figure either team has posted — while Colorado's offense converts just 35.1% and settles for field goals on more than half its red-zone visits, and the math points toward a game in which Utah sustains long drives, finishes them with touchdowns, and gets off the field on the other side. Utah has also won eight of the last nine in the series and twelve of the last fourteen, the Utes have two mobile quarterbacks who have given Colorado trouble for several seasons, and Colorado is on a three-game losing streak in which it has scored 7, 13, and 7 points.

On the Colorado side, though, the argument is that this is exactly the kind of game a home night kickoff at altitude can scramble, and that the Buffaloes' numbers understate what they actually are — remember that Colorado's official cumulative page still reflects only four games, so the real team is the one that put up 375 yards and 22 first downs against a Texas Tech defense that is better than Utah's and simply failed to score, scoring once on its opening drive and then stalling. Colorado's quarterback has thrown for 297 yards in that game, Joseph Williams caught 10 passes for 93 yards, and the Buffaloes moved the ball well enough to suggest that with a bye week to fix red-zone play calls, they can turn some of those stalled drives into points; the defense also held Texas Tech to 314 yards and 19 first downs, which is a genuinely respectable performance against a ranked opponent, and if that same defensive effort shows up against a Utah offense playing on the road at 8:15 p.m. Mountain Time, the game could stay close into the fourth quarter. Colorado can also point to the fact that Utah has padded its defensive numbers against Idaho, Arkansas, Utah State, and Kansas — none of whom throw the ball like a Big 12 road opponent, and the Utes' 4-2 front has not yet faced a receiver group as physical as Colorado's. If Colorado protects the ball, converts a couple of third downs it has been missing, and turns two red-zone trips into touchdowns instead of field goals, the scoreline compresses fast, and Folsom Field has produced upsets of ranked visitors before. Taken together, the two cases meet where the four numbers leave them: Utah is better at every measurable thing that decides football games — yards, first downs, third-down conversion, red-zone finishing, and defense — and should win comfortably if it plays its game, while Colorado's only real path is to hold Utah to field goals, steal a short field or two, and finally convert the red-zone chances it has been wasting.

Final score: 42-17 Utah

Point Play #3

Ohio at Sac st.

Ohio -14'

Ohio visits Hornet Stadium on Saturday for a 10 p.m. ET kickoff on ESPN+. Ohio is 4-2 (2-0 MAC) and has won three straight; Sacramento State is 1-5 (0-3 MAC) in its first FBS season and has lost three in a row. I did not use betting odds.

1 nugget worth eyeing: Ohio's official cumulative page is stale at five games (3-2) and does not include the 31-14 win over Central Michigan. I folded that game in. Sacramento State's page is also stale at five games and does not include the 38-10 loss at Bowling Green — I folded that in too.

The two most important numbers are third down and red zone. Ohio converts 48.5% of third downs; Sacramento State converts 38.8% and allows opponents to convert 56.6%, which is the worst figure in this matchup by a wide margin. And Sacramento State's red-zone offense is the real problem: five touchdowns on 15 trips, a 33.3% touchdown rate. Ohio scores on 85.7% of its red-zone visits and gets touchdowns on 78.6%

Ohio beat Central Michigan 31-14, gaining 403 yards and 23 first downs and converting 9 of 14 third downs. The Bobcats led 14-0 after the first quarter and 31-0 at halftime before coasting.

Sacramento State lost 38-10 at Bowling Green, managing only 215 yards, 15 first downs, and 3.4 yards per play. The Hornets rushed for 70 yards on 35 carries — 2.0 yards per attempt — and went 3 of 14 on third down.

Sacramento State beat Mississippi Valley State 52-0 in Week 1, and that game inflates every one of its averages — 453 yards and 26 first downs against an overmatched opponent. Against FBS competition the Hornets have scored 3, 10, 6, and 10 points in their four losses. Ohio's wins include a 35-7 rout of Stonehill and a 13-10 road win at Kent State, and the Bobcats did lose 41-36 at South Alabama and 49-21 at Nebraska, so they are not immune to giving up points.

Sacramento State is also playing its Homecoming and Parent & Family Weekend game at 7 p.m. local, and Ohio is traveling from Athens to the West Coast for a late kickoff. That is the main reason I kept the margin from getting larger.

When Ohio travels to Hornet Stadium for a 10 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday, the case for the Bobcats rests on one number that stands out above everything else in this matchup: Sacramento State allows opponents to convert 56.6% of their third downs, the worst figure either team brings to this game, while Ohio converts 48.5% of its own — the best offensive third-down rate on either sideline. That combination is close to a structural advantage. Ohio's offense should be able to stay on schedule, avoid the third-and-longs that kill drives on the road, and keep possessions alive against a defense that has struggled to get off the field all season. Layer in the red-zone gap and the case gets stronger still: Ohio scores on 85.7% of its trips inside the 20 and converts 78.6% of those into touchdowns, while Sacramento State converts only five of 15 red-zone trips into touchdowns, a 33.3% rate — meaning the Hornets have reached scoring range fifteen times this season and come away with a touchdown roughly a third of the time. If both teams move the ball at all, Ohio finishes drives and Sacramento State settles, and the scoreboard separates. Ohio also enters on a three-game winning streak, having beaten Central Michigan 31-14 by gaining 403 yards and 23 first downs on 9-of-14 third downs, leading 31-0 at halftime, and it has the better turnover profile, with eight forced turnovers against five turnovers lost. The Bobcats' 400-yard average and 4.8 yards per play are not explosive, but they are consistent, and consistency is what a 56.6% third-down defense gives up. The argument for Sacramento State, though, is that this game is being played at home, at 7 p.m. local, on Homecoming and Parent & Family Weekend, against a team making a long West-to-East-in-reverse trip from Athens, Ohio for a game that does not kick off until 10 p.m. Eastern — and that every one of Ohio's gaudy numbers is stitched together against a schedule that includes an FCS opponent and a Kent State team the Bobcats beat 13-10 in a game where they scored just thirteen points. Sacramento State's own averages are distorted in the other direction: its 328.7 yards per game is dragged down by a brutal stretch against Fresno State, North Dakota State, and Bowling Green, teams far better than anything Ohio has beaten, and the Hornets actually edge Ohio in both first downs per game (19.4 to 19.0) and yards per play (5.0 to 4.8), which suggests the underlying offense is more functional than the scoreboard implies. The Hornets got 221 passing yards and 23 first downs against a UMass team that was 4-0 at the time, ran 77 plays in that game, and have a quarterback, Jackson Sharman, who threw four touchdowns in the 52-0 opener. If Sacramento State can protect the ball, avoid the third-and-longs that have buried it, and turn even two of its red-zone trips into touchdowns instead of field goals, it can stay within a possession into the fourth quarter, and Ohio's road losses this year — 49-21 at Nebraska and 41-36 at South Alabama — show the Bobcats can be scored on by teams willing to push the ball downfield. Taken together, the two cases meet where the four numbers leave them: Ohio is better on third down, dramatically better in the red zone, and better at getting off the field, which is why it should win by two scores if it plays a clean game; while Sacramento State's only realistic path is to shorten the game with its running backs, hold Ohio to a couple of field goals in the red zone, and let a late home crowd turn a comfortable matchup into a coin flip in the final ten minutes.

Final score 38-24 Ohio

Tuesday College Football, 2021–2025: Home Teams Go 17-26

Home teams went 17-26 in Tuesday games over the last five seasons. That is a home win rate of 39.5% — road teams won far more often than home teams, which is the opposite of the usual football pattern.