Posted:
#1
Been a few weeks since I've been in the CFB forums, will have to go back and dig up the posted record but I believe it is .500.
Virginia +10.5
Good spot for this team to cover it's first game of the year. They are off a bye and can now let loose and play the role of spoiler down the stretch as their price in the market has plummeted. This team is not junk either. They have outgained their opponents in 4 straight by almost 450 yards combined but costly turnovers have killed them as they are -9 in 4 games. NC State is not good and should not be laying this much to anyone. The biggest margin they have beat a BCS conference team by this year is 3, a 10-7 @UConn. Wolf Pack off a brutal loss last week as well. Doubt they get up to play this one 100%. Slightly worse than a coinflip game IMO.
USC +8
The Trojans have been overvalued for the entire season with the unwarranted hype coming in and #1 ranking. But the tide has now turned and they are undervalued. Just a few weeks ago they would have been favored in this game and now they are catching over a TD? They've lost two close games this year it's not like they've been pasted. I like Oregon and think they have a hell of a team but the reality is they haven't faced a lick of adversity yet this season. How will the freshman QB react to adversity, how will the team react when the flow of every game has been the same: Get fired up early and get out to a big lead then coast and rest starters. USC is one of the few teams in the country who has the athletes to compete with Oregon.
Washington State +11
Smoke and mirrors show by Utah putting up 49 points last week. They only managed 344 yards and benefited from some short fields and got 21 points directly off two kick return TD's and a fumble return TD. Before last week the most points this dreadful offense has put up in a game is 21. When your offense is that bad you better have a good defense to be laying points like this but the Utes don't. In fact their pass defense is 109th in the country giving 8.3 yards per attempt which plays right into the Cougars hands. Now that Leach is over his absurd Halliday infatuation and has named Tuel the QB I expect them to play much better. They played real well last week and though they came up short that is a game they can build off not cry about because they still lost.
Michigan State +1.5
Sparty still has an elite defense and that is always something that interests me when that team is getting points at home. The defense will keep them in this one. It will come down to whether or not Martinez can make enough plays on the road against this caliber of opposition. I'm betting he can't and self-destructs.
Army +7
Ugh. Just a close your eyes, hit submit, don't watch a second of the game, and came back hours after the game to see the score type of game here. Air Force just isn't good enough this year to be favored against anyone let alone a TD on the road. Army is terrible but this is a good spot for them to hang in there against a team that has beat them up the last few years.
Akron +12.5 (1st half)
Just gonna fade Kent State here off a mammoth win for them. I know they have been impressive this season but they just don't have the talent to be laying this kind of wood to anyone. Akron has a terrible record but this team can actually score this season. They get their stud RB back this week and have scored at least 26 points in 5 of the 7 games he's started and finished. Their QB also has 2700 yards passing already at 61% with 22 TD's. I think Kent State's offense comes in a little hungover and out of sync to start this one of that huge win. Hopefully Archer will sprain his ankle on the 1st play because that kid is a fucking stud.
Mississippi +14
Ole Piss is 7-1 ATS this year and have played real hard and competed in every game except against Texas. I see no reason why that changes in this one. This is an under the radar squad. Georgia is immensely talented we all know that but they are also horribly coached and mentally weak. They have admitted they need something to fire them up in games. Off their biggest win of the year and only needing to win out against a joke schedule to get to the SECGC this is exactly the type of scenario this team comes out unfocused and screws around as they have done countless times in the past. Richt has already said the team has been bad in practice this week. Ruh roh.
Purdue +3.5
The Boilermakers had a players only meeting this week and reportedly aired everything out and feel good coming into this one after an embarrassing loss last week. They are also looking to put in a good performance at home after being blown into China in each of their last two home games. Penn State is a good team and they've had a great run but they've played over their heads. When these types of teams finally have their streak snapped I like to go against them again as they are usually overvalued again the next week.
Arizona State +3.5
Exact same scenario as Penn State. The Beavers have played way over their heads. Now that their run is over there is still some value left fading them in a tough spot off that first loss. The Sun Devils are kind of the opposite, a very underrated team coming in off some losses and needing a win. This defense is just as good as Oregon State's. They have a great defensive line and lead the country in sack percentage. They also get 2 DL back his week including one of the best in the nation in Sutton who was badly missed the last two games. The Devils also have a far better offense and have explosive playmakers. Quite frankly I think they are at least a notch better than OSU and should win here.
Temple +16
Louisville has sleepwalked through many games this year against lesser teams. Off a wild win against Cincy and a noon kick I don't see why they don't sleepwalk here either. Where is the incentive to get up for a team that has been pasted in two straight games. Just get the W and move on. They've let teams a lot worse than Temple hang around all season and that is a very tough habit to shake this late in the year.
GL fellas.
Virginia +10.5
Good spot for this team to cover it's first game of the year. They are off a bye and can now let loose and play the role of spoiler down the stretch as their price in the market has plummeted. This team is not junk either. They have outgained their opponents in 4 straight by almost 450 yards combined but costly turnovers have killed them as they are -9 in 4 games. NC State is not good and should not be laying this much to anyone. The biggest margin they have beat a BCS conference team by this year is 3, a 10-7 @UConn. Wolf Pack off a brutal loss last week as well. Doubt they get up to play this one 100%. Slightly worse than a coinflip game IMO.
USC +8
The Trojans have been overvalued for the entire season with the unwarranted hype coming in and #1 ranking. But the tide has now turned and they are undervalued. Just a few weeks ago they would have been favored in this game and now they are catching over a TD? They've lost two close games this year it's not like they've been pasted. I like Oregon and think they have a hell of a team but the reality is they haven't faced a lick of adversity yet this season. How will the freshman QB react to adversity, how will the team react when the flow of every game has been the same: Get fired up early and get out to a big lead then coast and rest starters. USC is one of the few teams in the country who has the athletes to compete with Oregon.
Washington State +11
Smoke and mirrors show by Utah putting up 49 points last week. They only managed 344 yards and benefited from some short fields and got 21 points directly off two kick return TD's and a fumble return TD. Before last week the most points this dreadful offense has put up in a game is 21. When your offense is that bad you better have a good defense to be laying points like this but the Utes don't. In fact their pass defense is 109th in the country giving 8.3 yards per attempt which plays right into the Cougars hands. Now that Leach is over his absurd Halliday infatuation and has named Tuel the QB I expect them to play much better. They played real well last week and though they came up short that is a game they can build off not cry about because they still lost.
Michigan State +1.5
Sparty still has an elite defense and that is always something that interests me when that team is getting points at home. The defense will keep them in this one. It will come down to whether or not Martinez can make enough plays on the road against this caliber of opposition. I'm betting he can't and self-destructs.
Army +7
Ugh. Just a close your eyes, hit submit, don't watch a second of the game, and came back hours after the game to see the score type of game here. Air Force just isn't good enough this year to be favored against anyone let alone a TD on the road. Army is terrible but this is a good spot for them to hang in there against a team that has beat them up the last few years.
Akron +12.5 (1st half)
Just gonna fade Kent State here off a mammoth win for them. I know they have been impressive this season but they just don't have the talent to be laying this kind of wood to anyone. Akron has a terrible record but this team can actually score this season. They get their stud RB back this week and have scored at least 26 points in 5 of the 7 games he's started and finished. Their QB also has 2700 yards passing already at 61% with 22 TD's. I think Kent State's offense comes in a little hungover and out of sync to start this one of that huge win. Hopefully Archer will sprain his ankle on the 1st play because that kid is a fucking stud.
Mississippi +14
Ole Piss is 7-1 ATS this year and have played real hard and competed in every game except against Texas. I see no reason why that changes in this one. This is an under the radar squad. Georgia is immensely talented we all know that but they are also horribly coached and mentally weak. They have admitted they need something to fire them up in games. Off their biggest win of the year and only needing to win out against a joke schedule to get to the SECGC this is exactly the type of scenario this team comes out unfocused and screws around as they have done countless times in the past. Richt has already said the team has been bad in practice this week. Ruh roh.
Purdue +3.5
The Boilermakers had a players only meeting this week and reportedly aired everything out and feel good coming into this one after an embarrassing loss last week. They are also looking to put in a good performance at home after being blown into China in each of their last two home games. Penn State is a good team and they've had a great run but they've played over their heads. When these types of teams finally have their streak snapped I like to go against them again as they are usually overvalued again the next week.
Arizona State +3.5
Exact same scenario as Penn State. The Beavers have played way over their heads. Now that their run is over there is still some value left fading them in a tough spot off that first loss. The Sun Devils are kind of the opposite, a very underrated team coming in off some losses and needing a win. This defense is just as good as Oregon State's. They have a great defensive line and lead the country in sack percentage. They also get 2 DL back his week including one of the best in the nation in Sutton who was badly missed the last two games. The Devils also have a far better offense and have explosive playmakers. Quite frankly I think they are at least a notch better than OSU and should win here.
Temple +16
Louisville has sleepwalked through many games this year against lesser teams. Off a wild win against Cincy and a noon kick I don't see why they don't sleepwalk here either. Where is the incentive to get up for a team that has been pasted in two straight games. Just get the W and move on. They've let teams a lot worse than Temple hang around all season and that is a very tough habit to shake this late in the year.
GL fellas.
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