Jax st - won the game but didn't cover. Main plays 1-1 this week and also lost the small small parlay. Let's see if we can turn it around tonight - let's look at some numbers:
Usf 110 39 85 143
-6.5 Utsa 79 118 69 79
Utsa opened at -6.5 currently around 5.5-5 at most places (madduxsports.com) . Usf is better in total Def. at 39 vs 118 . While Utsa is better in total Off 110 vs 79 sagarin rank 69 vs 85 and sched strength at 79 vs 143. With this scenario and opening line of 6.5 the data indicates take UTSA. There was a game between Troy and gast - final score 10-37 -Ga st. took it. Looking for opening lines that are the same and similar scenarios along with numbers that match up with the game to be played (as close as possible). There was another game between Kansas and Mizzou some of the numbers were starkly different but Mizzou took it 31-42 - in that game the line also dropped to 5.5. I'm sticking with Utsa - didn't see any major injuries - please let me know if I'm missing something. My Plays for tonight:
1. Utsa -5
2. Mizzst/Wky over 56.5
Good luck all.
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Jax st - won the game but didn't cover. Main plays 1-1 this week and also lost the small small parlay. Let's see if we can turn it around tonight - let's look at some numbers:
Usf 110 39 85 143
-6.5 Utsa 79 118 69 79
Utsa opened at -6.5 currently around 5.5-5 at most places (madduxsports.com) . Usf is better in total Def. at 39 vs 118 . While Utsa is better in total Off 110 vs 79 sagarin rank 69 vs 85 and sched strength at 79 vs 143. With this scenario and opening line of 6.5 the data indicates take UTSA. There was a game between Troy and gast - final score 10-37 -Ga st. took it. Looking for opening lines that are the same and similar scenarios along with numbers that match up with the game to be played (as close as possible). There was another game between Kansas and Mizzou some of the numbers were starkly different but Mizzou took it 31-42 - in that game the line also dropped to 5.5. I'm sticking with Utsa - didn't see any major injuries - please let me know if I'm missing something. My Plays for tonight:
Answered your question in that post but here as well - sagarin.com for ranks and sched strength . bol to ya bud
Luckily UTSA - pulled it out - but Wky and Mizzst - sucked it up. This week record stands at 2-2 and a loss with our small small parlay - thus far. Let's look at some numbers:
Iowa 73 25 23 38
-2.5 Wash. 84 34 53 90
The line opened at Wash-2.5 currently the same or possibly 3 (madduxsports.com) . Iowa is better in Toff. at 73 vs 84; Total Def. 25 vs 34; Sagarin rank 23 vs 53 and Sagarin sched strength at 38 vs 90 . Iowa is better in all 4 categories - I'm taking Iowa - Chill. This is where I recognize the oddsmakers have more resources than me (best kept secret in my opinion) - why did they make Wash the favorite when everything I have indicates Iowa should be favored - because they have a vast number of resources and their reasons. That's why you won't hear me say - the wrong team is favored thus I embrace the line they put on the game.
In this situation the data I have indicates take Wash. My plays for tonight:
1. Wash -2.5
2. Parlay BYU -9.5 to Wyo +6 pays 2.2 to 1
Good luck all
@Capppro69
From my Troy Post - appreciate it.
@tryn2makeabuck
Answered your question in that post but here as well - sagarin.com for ranks and sched strength . bol to ya bud
Luckily UTSA - pulled it out - but Wky and Mizzst - sucked it up. This week record stands at 2-2 and a loss with our small small parlay - thus far. Let's look at some numbers:
Iowa 73 25 23 38
-2.5 Wash. 84 34 53 90
The line opened at Wash-2.5 currently the same or possibly 3 (madduxsports.com) . Iowa is better in Toff. at 73 vs 84; Total Def. 25 vs 34; Sagarin rank 23 vs 53 and Sagarin sched strength at 38 vs 90 . Iowa is better in all 4 categories - I'm taking Iowa - Chill. This is where I recognize the oddsmakers have more resources than me (best kept secret in my opinion) - why did they make Wash the favorite when everything I have indicates Iowa should be favored - because they have a vast number of resources and their reasons. That's why you won't hear me say - the wrong team is favored thus I embrace the line they put on the game.
In this situation the data I have indicates take Wash. My plays for tonight:
Wash./I sucked it up but we hit the 2 team parlay with BYU and Wyo. so squeaked out a positive for the week-barely so far. Let's look at some numbers:
-9.5 Indiana 14 4 8 103
51 Nebr. 24 17 18 111
The line opened at 9.5 for indy. dropped to -7-7.5 at some places and now is around 8-8.5 and even -9 at circa (madduxsports.com) . Indy is better in Total off at 14 vs 24; Total Def at 4 vs 17; Sagarin rank at 8 vs 18 and slightly better in sched strength at 103 vs 111 . What's it all mean - nothing until you compare it to previous games with opening lines of 9.5 a similar scenario and similar numbers; we have that situation - a game between Clemson and Gatech Final score 26-7. O/u line dropped to 48.5 .
My Plays:
1. Indy -8.5
2. Pitt-3.5
3. Nwester - 35 (bought .5)
4. Parlay Az -3 to Under 49.5 Indy/Neb pays 2.19 to 1
Good luck all
Wash./I sucked it up but we hit the 2 team parlay with BYU and Wyo. so squeaked out a positive for the week-barely so far. Let's look at some numbers:
-9.5 Indiana 14 4 8 103
51 Nebr. 24 17 18 111
The line opened at 9.5 for indy. dropped to -7-7.5 at some places and now is around 8-8.5 and even -9 at circa (madduxsports.com) . Indy is better in Total off at 14 vs 24; Total Def at 4 vs 17; Sagarin rank at 8 vs 18 and slightly better in sched strength at 103 vs 111 . What's it all mean - nothing until you compare it to previous games with opening lines of 9.5 a similar scenario and similar numbers; we have that situation - a game between Clemson and Gatech Final score 26-7. O/u line dropped to 48.5 .
My Plays:
1. Indy -8.5
2. Pitt-3.5
3. Nwester - 35 (bought .5)
4. Parlay Az -3 to Under 49.5 Indy/Neb pays 2.19 to 1
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