CFB Bowl Plays

YTD 52.46% / +1.90 units

The regular season very mediocre for me this year, but it is what it is.  Fortunately the NFL has been going well and college bball is off to a good start, so I can't complain.  Anyways, I will have one thread for all of my college plays this season. 

Good luck to everyone.

First locked in play:

W. Mich +3 -125 (2 units)
The only thing I can figure on this one is that Purdue is favored because they play in the Big Ten.  But, if you look at it, Purdue had about as unimpressive of a year as you could have going 6-6.  They have wins over a FCS school in Southeast Missouri St, a 2-10 team in Middle Tenn St and the two worst teams in the Big Ten in Minnesota and Indiana.  Add-in a win over an Illinois team that just fired their coach and an Ohio State team that was as down as they have been in years, and that is it for them.  Meanwhile, W. Michigan isn't great, but Alex Carder is certainly capable of picking apart this Boilermaker defense.  I look for W. Michigan to win this one by a touchdown.

Nice Pick, Aggie!

I know it's a long way off, but I seem to be alone in liking Oregon to destroy Wisky. IMO, Oregon may rush for 400 yds. And the over should be covered by 3rd qtr. Any thoughts?

Gig'em!

I am actually leaning towards Wisconsin as a play.  I think they will win outright with a score of something like 35-31 or 38-34.  When looking at this game, Wisconsin has just as good of an offense and a better defense that Oregon in my opinion.

Adding:

Wisconsin +6 -110 (2 units)
Everyone talks about Oregon's offense and their team speed.  Granted, they are fast, but I would take Wisconsin's offensive duo of Wilson and Ball and be fairly confident that they could keep up with Oregon's ability to score.  Add-in that the Badgers have the better defense and in my opinion, the better team, and I see the Badgers winning this one outright.

Quote Originally Posted by packers1992:

aggie we agree on both Do you think A&M covers vs Northwestern? Or win but not Cover?

Well, we are running out of coaches now that DeRuyter just was named head coach at Fresno State.  On a paper, I think A&M should win by 14-20 points, but I have no idea what to expect given all the changes going on right now.

Aggie.

I would have to respectively disagree with you on both games.  I think Purdue is one of the best bets on the board.  First, the same Illinois team you speak of, that fired their coach, beat W Michigan.  And Purdue completely dominated Illinois in that game. Second, the Ohio State team (a team that beat Wisconsin btw) has 10x better athletes than W Michigan... and lost to Purdue. 

W Michigan has trouble with teams that defend the pass well, and even lost to teams that don't (Toledo has the 109 pass defense in the country).  The reason is because  Carter is nothing more than a pocket passer, and when you get pressure on pocket passers, they will be loose with their feet and make bad throws.  Carter will get his throws, but he has MAC WR's to throw to vs a Big Ten D line and DB's.  I have been able to watch both teams play this year, and would be really suprised if W Michigan out plays Purdue for 4 quarters.  Not to mention that Hope is on the hot seat at Purdue, and you can bet that he will have his team ready b/c he simply can't afford to look like crap in a bowl game vs a MAC team.  Imo, all signs point to Purdue.  Purdue by 7+ 

As for Wisconsin.  Yes.  Wilson & Ball are pretty talented, but to say Wisky's defense is better than Oregon's..  imo... you are way off base.  I think people will be suprised how well Oregon's defense is.  Personally, I think the combination of Andrew Luck and Stephan Taylor are better than Wilson/Ball.  Taylor gets overlooked because of Luck, but he is damn good.  And Oregon had no problems keep them in check, enough to win that game comfortably.  This game will go like all the others that Oregon's plays..  game will be close in the first half, but in the end, Wisconsin will not be able to match Oregon.  You could argue that Wisconsin played 2 good teams all season (and that is saying OSU is good) and they lost both... and damn near lost to MSU again, if it wasn't for a misfortunate play on a roughing the Punter penalty. 

Wisconsin hasn't faced anything (nothing even relatively close) to what they will see from Oregon and they simply don't have enough, on either side of the ball, to keep this game within 6 points.  Oregon by 10+

my .02

Adding:

Temple -7 -110 (1 unit)
When I look at this match-up, there is one thing that really sticks out to me and that is the Temple running game vs. the Wyoming run defense.  Temple has a top 10 running game while Wyoming has a bottom 10 run defense.  I suspect this fact will be the reason Temple is able to move the ball a bit easier than Wyoming and will win this one something like 31-17.

Adding:

SDSU/ULaLa o58 -117 (1 unit)
For a lot of people, I would imagine that this will be their first opportunity to see Ronnie Hillman, who is one of the better RB's in the nation in my opinion.  I suspect he along with the Aztec offense as a whole should be able to move the ball relatively easily.  On the flip side, while I don't expect ULaLa to have quite as much success, I also think they will have quite a few scoring opportunities.  To me this is a 38-28 type game in which SDSU pulls away late.

Off to a good start in the bowl games.

Adding:

Fla. Int'l -4 -110 (1 unit)
When I look at this one, to me FIU has the better offense and defense.  Add-in the fact that they have basically a home game and the fact that this only FIU's second bowl game and I feel like all of this leads to a big FIU cover here.

I will be honest with you and this holds true with NFL, CFB, CBB and NBA.  These are all of the sports I bet on.  Anyways, what holds true is the fact that I do not look at what the public is doing on any of the games I play.  This is just something that really doesn't matter to me.  The way I see it is the public is right probably 40-45% of the time, so it isn't worth my time or effort trying to figure out when they will be right or wrong.  I would rather focus on just trying to find angles I like and games I like.  For me, FIU is just the better team and so I will play them.  This actually might be my only bowl play for the week, not sure yet.