RECAP
SMU .. Ville did fight but with Miller moss and some heavy hitters out this was trouble from the get go .. Hit some margin calls on this one SMU 31+ win for a monster and some other similar junk .. ended up being my biggest single win of the season by far ..
ARMY .. I can't recall too many other EPIC MELTDOWNS like that before .. Army in great shape covering -10.5 and felt like Tulsa was fighting the whole way but Army offense just able to pull away at every turn .. then blow the cover .. a min or so later lose the game .. likely knocked themselves out of a bowl game too because no little bowl is waiting around to see if Army can beat Navy those invites will be gobbled up by then .. silver lining anyone with Tulsa Season wins Over 3.5 taking + odds nice one .. think we'll end the year w 5 wins .. also Army under 7.5 wins fiiiiiinaaaallyyyy gets there .. felt like that shoulda won 2 months ago lol ..
Charlotte .. 'bet it and forget it' spot UGA vs the little dink team in cupcake week .. I was nervous for charlotte too because they stink so bad but Kirby always does this giving those teams an edge somehow maybe telling them some of the plays even lol .. anyway Kirby doesn't care about covering a spread ever so this spot wins again ..
Okla State .. Rebirth is for real .. I can't count how many ML parlays they've blown for me the last 2 weeks but I'm a degen and of course we'll be back on em losing parlays again this week lol .. but yeah nice call on the turnaround spot other week vs K-State and clearly something to these guys able to make games competitive .. B2B games blew the lead shoulda won em both ..
Wash State .. "Long list of former SDSU JACKRABBITS on the Roster and Coaching crew .. they got the PAC 2 Champ on deck with a chance to make the Skittles Bowl .. could worry about that or gear up for the G5 SUPERBOWL.. and frankly.. SHOULDA WON IT ..
Maryland .. one punch to start .. then knockout by Michigan .. yeah dumb call ..
Bowling Green .. omg .. I think they're losing to UMASS ..
Kent State .. they at least showed up and tried .. hats off to them for getting just a few wins this year ..
SMALLER
AIR FORCE / COLO STATE UNDER 46.5
Hit this last night bigger under 49.5 so can't call it a BP at 46.5 but I still kinda want to .. the kinda fun QB that colo state has is apparently suspended .. Brossard absolutely stinks and this team just can't seem to run the ball for more than 10 yards a game .. I took some alt line / total SGP's on this one for AF to win by 9.5 or 13.5 and we still keep this total very low under 31.5 or so .. can get 10x 15x 20x for some of those .. I could def see it happen .. Its a big rivalry and AF is on the road so correlated's might not work out but really tough to see much scoring in this game .. AF team total under 24.5 was up for a while .. idk .. def a game I think a fairly long odds correlator can hit though .. good luck!
BRIDGE PLAY
TULSA -8.5
I can see a world where lotta UAB guys don't wanna get on the plane .. idk if thats the case but if I was on that team I'd be asking the doctors for a note here .. looks like potential wind and maybe some weather Sat afternoon too .. Think total could be surprise low if UAB dosn't show up and maybe just a gigantic win for Tulsa still with UAB's D already horrible and now maybe not even trying .. I took some Tulsa -29.5 / U49.5 alt spread/total parlay for 40-1 and think we could potentially have a shot at something fun .. we saw this spot line up pre-ssn as a likely late ssn win for Tulsa and one of the reasons we like their win total over and uab's under .. both already in the bag .. Tra Lamb could be going for one of the most improbable miracle bowl runs this week if he bagged one of their reallly close losses earlier this year .. but now it lines up as just another shot to get a win and we can at least say this is a team w A TON of momentum and belief if they keep trying they can do it .. playing ssn finale at home .. DEF WIN HUNTING still .. and UAB might be in the biggest check out spot on the CFB schedule .. if so then maybe goes from fun to reaaaal fun one with the correlated A-BOMBS .. GOOD LUCK!
BRIDGE PLAY
KANSAS STATE -17.5
Welp think we were in this spot week 2 or so vs Army and blew it so obvi I'm back for more lol ... its just such a take it spot for K-State here playing thier big game last week vs Utah and while its not the BIIIG spot like that it is definitely a spot you expect some retribution for how this year has gone ..K-State is very much endeared to their fans, playing at home and bowl games .. very much not endeared to coach prime and hot shot wannabe fast turnaround teams .. this goes back to the rebirth of K-State football back in the late 80's / early 90's and there's just a few teams that are so grounded in their values that we can have some expectations about what K-State's motivations are for a spot like this going for a bowl even with such a horrific disappointing year I think the DNA of this team is absolutely geared to wipping colorado's ass in this game.. for more info on that check link below
Beyond K-State we saw colorado in such a great spot at home last week with ASU a total fish outta water spot in boulder layin a TD with the Territorial Cup on deck a huge one for both teams, Star QB gone and quite a few others .. seemed like they were trying to give CU a win in the bad spot but Buffs one-upp'd them played an aboslutely horrible game and miraculously had a chance to take the lead before fumbling and giving up an 80 yd TD run to ensure they'd lose .. can't say they won't show up at all this week but just so many things not going right for them they coulda / shoulda lost by so much more .. and end of the day .. if that's what we get from the Buffs in a good spot .. yeahhhh .. K-State 56-Zip wouldn't be a big surprise ..
K-State football documentary one of the best docs I've seen, short and too the point .. well worth a watch!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIkW5da-ma0
HEISMAN TALK .. HEDGING EDITION .. 
DIEGO PAVIA 300-1
Time to start hedging this one .. unfortunately there's really no DIRECT hedge for Heismans 'YES' / 'NO' wager offers I know of .. very tricky to maneuver ..
Field assessment .. its a particularly weak and vulnerable .. gone are the days of '23 with a 3 horse race of Bo Nix, Pennix, Jayden Daniels .. back then if you didn't have a perfect or near perfect season and win the conf champ game and make the playoff with the big stats then you needed those Jayden stats 50 TD's unstoppable QB on gamer mode .. nowadays you really need a variety of things namely the name recognition and big games in the biggest spotlights ..
D-MONEY is easily the odds on fav to be my fav CFB player ever and IMO deserving a trip to NY no matter what happens from here ..But in reality Diego to punch a ticket .. AND .. be a legit contender in NY has to deliver a win this weekend with ANOTHER outstanding or at least very solid winning performance .. the real kicker might be if Vandy can eek in the playoffs .. there's reasons to be hopeful the committee takes them on the star power and interest in this team .. er .. really in D-PAV .. but right now there's just so many SEC teams w too many "well if you take them then you have to take them" arguments from established programs.. Vandy is sorta the odd man out having not won a truly signature game vs one of the big remaining contenders even if their resume is playoff-worthy .. Win @Tenn, esp a solid win, might make them tough to leave out and frankly there's no single team or player that I think would be more interesting to make the playoffs than The Dores .. if they check all the boxes this weekend and make the playoffs I think he'll be a realllllly tough out in the heisman race even not playing in the champ game ..
Other Considerations ..
Mendoza beats OSU prob is the odds on fav .. but might need to have a real solid day with some kinda great heisman moment vs the #1 D and that's not a sure thing even if he wins ...
Jeremiah Love .. With this field I expected the convo to swing wildly in the last few weeks .. alas we have a legit heisman candidate ... obvi problem for him is .. not having a big game vs Stan and being forgotten after the conf champ race .. His RAPID assent tells me the race is not over and any sorta last minute huge game or sudden hype will likely make or break a candidates odds .. J-Love to win IMO means .. Huge game vs Stan .. and Mendoza loses champ game and Pavia loses this week or somehow wins but has a terrible game ..... and .. nobody else steps up .. really quite a bit IMO .. Gunna wait to make J-Love a hedge for now I think his current odds could get lower w a BIIIG game vs Stan but likely settle lower after champ weekend .. maybe much lower ..
HEISMAN HEDGE CONT'D ..
One consideration in the handicap right now is a bit touchy to mention but IMO has to be considered and explains recent developments...... I'll let you 'REED' between the lines but if the finalists were Mendoza, Pavia, Sayin and Stockton ... what's missing? .. I'll give you a clue .. NOT Jacob Rodriguez!! lol .. Heisman Ceremony not interested in being pilloried the way the Oscars used to and turned them all wacky .. Marcel Reed's odds shot down for lack of big performances lately and his candidacy can be dashed quickly w a loss this week or in the champ game .. soooo.. its not a surprise that J-LOVE has rocketed up with odds that almost assure he's making the trip to NY .. I'm surprised he's 2nd place but considering there's no other tickets assuredly punched to NY besides ostensibly his and I think Mendoza's barring like losing to Purdue or something insane.. I'd say J-LOVE's odds aren't totally unfair .. but as the field becomes certain I suspect his odds won't be as strong ..
All I'm saying is what goes up fast can come down fast still .. I think its very possible that Reed can recapture the spotlight in the last 2 weeks and if Pavia loses this weekend the spotlight should turn very quickly to him .. Diversity nuance isin't the only nuance to consider here .. media hype machine is so critical to winning a heisman and if Pavia doesn't make it this weekend then ABC/ESPN MEDIA EMPIRE will undoubtably congregate around another SEC player .. and Reed is the only one I think that has a legit shot to actually pull ahead late and win it .. its an indirect Pavia hedge and does have merit in its own right even with Pavia still very viable ..
PAVIA TICKET HEDGES
MENDOZA +110 (CIRCA)
Still have + odds there and FERN winning the B10 prob does beat Pavia no matter what our dude does .. and at this point you wonder if a close loss to OSU with a strong performance still at least keeps him strong and in 2nd place so still some merit in his own right ..
MARCEL REED 16-1 (CIRCA)
Pavia loses and SEC media will find a replacement star to bolster boosting his odds should he carry the team into the playoffs undefeated SEC champs etc .. big performances only help .. again its not a direct hedge but w the longer odds right now I think a big Texas win catapults him back up into the top group maybe past J-LOVE into 2nd place as folks see the final resume potential of QB for undefeated SEC .. EPIC comeback win vs SCAR not to manetion any other heisman moments he picks up here .. very powerful potential heisman resume ..
TENNESSEE ML vs VANDY
Unfortunately must take some wager on TENN to win ML this weekend .. PUKE!!! .. and maybe for a bit more than we want because this doubles as a hedge on our TENN RSW U8.5 play .. DOUBLE PUKE!!! .. its the one final box Pavia MUST check to advance to NY thus its a direct hedge we kinda need to play and unfortunately has no other real value if the hedge ends up winning ... SUPER PUUUUUKE!!
Good luck!!
REG SSN WINS ROUNDUP ... WK14
SEASON WINS
PITT OVER 5.5 -150 
UAB UNDER 4.5 -130
TULSA OVER 2.5 -180
ARMY UNDER 7.5 -110
AUBURN UNDER 8 -120
SO MISS OVER 4.5 -115
NWESTERN OVER 3.5 -140
S.DIEGO ST OVER 4.5 -110
JAMES MAD OVER 7.5 -120
S.CAROLINA UNDER 7.5 -110
TENNESSEE UNDER 8.5 +100 
MARSHALL UNDER 5.5 -115
MISSOURI OVER 7.5 +130
BYU UNDER 8.5 -157 
TULANE UNDER 8.5 -110
GEORGIA ST OVER 3.5 -105
KENT STATE UNDER 2.5 -120
OHIO STATE UNDER 10.5 -130
No HUGE twists last week .. 10-6 with 3 to go .. hoping for 12-7 but sweeping or tanking the final 3 is not out of the realm .. sheesh ..
ARMY U7.5 closes out a week earlier than expected w a TULSA MIRACLE ..
UAB U4.5 closed out as expected ..
MARSH U5.5 .. got the help we needed .. App win at home keeps this alive and still kickin, although still in a tough position.. best believe I hit the first ML number I needed to hedge out of part of this position and did lock in some loss .. that said G.SO also going for a bowl and they love their bowls so tbd maybe a chance to flip that one ..
TENN U8.5 .. dual hedge with the pavia ticket .. Feels like a legit coin flip but Tenn at home in a rivalry after last week's murdering of Florida def makes a hedge more expensive .. think we're very close to 50/50 but have to play the game ..
MIZZ O7.5 .. man o man .. hoping they can pull this one out .. we got +Odds on the RSW and getting +Odds on arkansas so the hedge is in + territory but maaaan wish we weren't needing to do any .. hedged some but I think our Tigers can pull off a win here vs a VERY DANGEROUS HOGS OFFENSE .. albeit .. absurdly bad defense ..
@robtri
Depends on the odds you have for each one what you win and lose for each .. and what your goal is .. if the goal is just not to lose all 3 then a 3 teamer would make sense I suppose w the understanding you could lose 2 and the parlay .. or go 2-1 and lose the parlay .. or 3-0 and lose the parlay .. etc..
When I'm hedging directly diff scenarios I work it out on the spreadsheet the different positions and run the scenario .. we know what we win or lose for each RSW and we can game it out from there hedging directly or parlaying 2 or 3 together .. then work out a scenario you want and lock it in .. tough for me to do that for you though ..
Personally I hit Marshall right away on the ML .. locks in a loss sure but one of my bigger plays don't want to take the full hit .. Tenn I'm hedged fully but I have the pavia heisman ticket and any chance to get to NY for the final selection really requires him to win here I believe .. so yeah got 2 reasons to hedge this game I got more on Tenn than my RSW even was because the heisman ticket win is huge .. I took a few bucks on Arkansas also because Mizzoo was a sizable RSW too .. good news is we have + odds on Mizzoo and seein like +127 at BM for Arkansas to win .. and maybe find better if you shop around .. could also take Ark +3 and maybe take both down ..
But yeah def dont wanna take the brunt of going 0-3 here taking down they were 3 pretty good size RSW plays for me plus Pavia heisman ticket would be out almost certainlty .. that would be pretty brutal can't risk that ..
Good luck
FUTURES ROUNDUP WK 14 ..
CONF CHAMP WINNER:
SO MISS 24-1 
VIRGINIA 200-1
SAN DIEGO ST 60-1
NEW MEXICO 100-1 WK3
PITTSBURGH 80-1 
OLE MISS 7-1 WK6
VA TECH 250-1 WK6
WASHINGTON 75-1
CINCINNATI 40-1
MISSOURI 50-1
ILLINOIS 38-1
TULSA 300-1
BAYLOR 9-1
UTSA 8.5-1
MAKE AAC CHAMP GAME:
NORTH TEXAS 8-1
MAKE NATTY:
OHIO STATE -120 WK12
NATTY WINNER:
TEXAS TECH 175-1
OHIO STATE 2-1 WK12
FUTURES ROUNDUP ..
SO.MISS 24-1 .. I had JMU pre-ssn 4-1 the odds moved sooo fast I felt like I couldn't even post it .. so we're at least hedged here .. I don't think it makes sense to hedge at the price right now if just holding a So Miss ticket .. I get the sense SO.Miss was resting up these last weeks and kinda know they're gunna murder Troy here .. So Miss laying -6.5 after B2B BLOWOUT LOSSES should tell you something .. My suggestion is wait and ensure they get in .. hedge vs Troy if you want this gm taking their ML or the points but definitely don't lay -700 on JMU to win the conf .. I could see this being much closer than expected in game .. I actually took a little dose of So Miss 7-1 on the possibility that So Miss was in-deed 'faking' and might be a surprise in-game .. assuming they beat Troy .. gulp .. lol .. but yeah fingers xx'd and hope So Miss can make it a game .. JMU is awesome but clearly not unbeatable ..
UVA 200-1 / PITT 80-1 .. oh man wouldn't it be great if these two met up .. Pitt has to beat Miami and I believe SMU has to lose to Cal too and .. there's so much chaos potential in the ACC Duke can even make it and so can GT and Miami has a shot too .. very tough to make a single hedge .. I'd suggest if you find 'make yes / no' offers to to make the playoff on UVA and at least lock something in for our trouble, if they win the conf they'll be in .. I'd also make sure to have some decent number on VT ML .. its a super rivalry and no chance they aren't throwing their best heat in this game .. Indirect hedges might wanna take Miami 8-1 and Duke 22-1 actually has maybe a more real shot than were expecting .. Also the last thing we want is to make the champ game and be giant dogs to Miami .. I'd suggest hitting them for 8-1
Pitt I can't hedge directly I actually like them to cover this week though and doubling down taking em +7 ..Miami's 7th straight game B2B roadies, cold game Pitt's D is pretty good and catching fire at the right time .. such a huge spot .. I don't know if Cal is showing up for this final game but I'll say off huge rivalry loss .. coach fired .. they got beat like a red headed step child last year on the road as SMU spanked them to make the champ game .. it just wouldn't surprise me if Cal actually showed up at home looking to throw a wrench into their plans .. The last thing we'd want though is to face Miami ..
Best shot to hedge is to bet on the field .. I think this is good to start with .. Miami is the only one I'm not taking mostly because theyre a much more massive longshot IMO and we'll have numerous games to hedge out if they even get close IMO ..
DUKE ACC CHAMPS 25-1 (CIRCA) ... legit possible to make it and carries some value if they get in .. could be heads up vs UVA and be our hedge .. Duke gets in if SMU loses, Miami wins and Duke wins .. not outside the realm at all .. if UVA also wins they'd be heads up and we'd be no sweat chillin .. if Pitt beats Miami then Pitt goes in this scenario .. so worth covering this HUGE ODDS base with UVA/PITT tickets working ..
SMU MAKE PLAYOFF +115 (MGM) .. works for us as the most likely scenario and better odds than SMU winning the ACC .. no way they get left out .. Duke is another story if they win the ACC tho lol ..
VA TECH ML +300 .. Sizable hedge here as we can't risk losing this game and missing the champ game and burning a 200-1 ticket because VT finally decides to show up .. UVA has been soooo seat of yer pants this year and this is a SUPER RIVALRY .. no sure thing IMO and doesn't matter whose at home ..
MIAMI .. NO HEDGE FOR NOW .. ESPN has for 10-1 but mostly seeing 8's and 6's and this is such an epic longshot and I don't think the odds reflect what needs to happen .. my suggestion is hedge on VT as most reasonable scenarios involve UVA losing to VT ..
SEASON PROPS:
CONF RUSH LEADER:
A. HARDY 12-1 SEC
LJ MARTIN 20-1 B12
JAHIEM WHITE 20-1 B12 - OFY WK 2 .. WHAT COULDA BEEN ..
JONAH COLEMAN 20-1 B10
CONF REC LEADER:
JORDYN TYSON 8-1 B12 
.. INJ 3 GMS .. WAS 1ST ..
DAKORIAN MOORE 18-1 B10 .. INJ 3 GMS .. HAD A SHOT..
CONF PASS LEADER:
STEVE ANGELI 18-1 ACC .. #1 PASS YDS IN CFB WHEN INJURED ..
AUSTIN SIMMONS 16-1 SEC
DEMOND WILLIAMS 12-1 B10 .. 150 YDS FROM LEADER MAIAVA ..
SEASON PROPS .. DON'T FORGET THESE!!!
A. HARDY 12-1 SEC
I said it was FREE MONEY .. 811 conf rush yds with Arkansas left to go and he had a few games being totally shut down .. maybe another 300 yd day coming .. Kewan Lacy at Ole Miss 2nd place 52 yds back with 769 conf rush yds .. could be a big day vs Miss State yeah but with Trinidad Chambliss' run and pass ability this feels like its Hardy all the way ..
LJ MARTIN 20-1 B12
MONSTER game vs Cincy puts him back to #1 .. 792 conf rush yds .. its a 3 horse race with Raleek Brown off a monster game vs Colorado 7 yds behind .. we have Cam Dickey 13 yds back behind Martin .. I think Jahim woulda smoked the field but LJ has been every bit the dude we expected carrying a massive load for BYU .. BYU with UCF at home here .. its win and yer in the B12 champ game but every reason to smoke these turds in front of their fans .. Texas Tech @WV feels alot like win and get outta there .. get ready for the champ game .. ASU has a very competitive game vs U of A .. Brown needed a 255 yd day vs Colorado to get to this spot .. I expect he's used a bit but UA's D is coming to play in the Territorial Cup ..
STEVE ANGELLI 18-1 .. Woulda been a showdown vs him and Mensah from Duke but Stevie was leading the country in passing when he got hurt while taking down Clemson, their toughest D on the year .. obvi he literally was the whole team ..
JORDYN TYSON 8-1 .. called it pre-ssn .. only chance to lose this guy is he gets hurt .. I think it probably woulda failed anyway with Sam Levitt being injured too .. but before the injury we were #1 in receiving yards in a close race with a couple others .. Team stayed healthy we were at least in a final week showdown with TCU's McCalister with 700 yds we were at 375 before missing 3 games vs Houston, Iowa St and W.Virginia .. all 3 woulda been shots for big production .. sighh ..
Anyway .. overall much more success this year on the season props and coulda been a monster if we had everyone staying healthy .. can't complain if we end up landing 2 BIG bangers outta the bunch .. we'll still be + money even if we just land Hardy at 12-1 ..
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