Boise vs. Georgia

Very nice job!!! 

I note that you state Boise's defense "finish[ed] in the top 7 in every major category, but qualified Georgia's defensive ranking against the pass by saying that their numbers "might be a little skewed having played 4 teams in the bottom third for passing offense."  Now that's funny right thar!!!

Boise's achieved their gaudy defensive rankings against some of the most pathetic teams in college football history, while Georgia achieved their ranking against stout SEC competition.  So if any ranking is skewed it's Boise's.  In fact throw all of Boise's stats out the window because they are all so ridiculouslsy skewed as to be of no value in capping this game whatsoever.

I will also note that Georgia is replacing one WR and Boise is replacing two, but you swing the pendulum in favor of Boise.  That is rather absurd considering both Tavarres King and Marlon Brown were both RIvals 150 4* prospects, both of whom are more experienced than annonomous, inexperienced 2* prospects Geraldo Hiwat (who is a wide receiver convert) and Aaron Burks.  Second team all-SEC TE Orson Charles and Tavarres King are both 3-year starters, who will be locking up against an inexperienced Boise secondary.

In sum, Georgia has a significant advantage in the receiving department, both in experience and athletic ability.  In fact the athletic ability statement applies pretty much across the board at all positions.  With the exception of QB, I doubt any of Boise's player's could crack Georgia's starting lineup at any position.

This is how I would grade it out.

Home Field Advantage:  Agree with everything you say.  Slight adavntage Georgia.

Georgia's Offense vs. Boise's Defense:  Experience at the RB position is a bit of a concern, but talent is not.  Overall I would give Georgia the edge in this matchup.

Boise's Offense vs. Georgia's Defense:  Georgia enjoys a significant advantage in talent and coaching.  More on the coaching below.  I don't expect Boise to score more than about 14 points in this game.

Special Teams:  I agree with everything you say.  Huge advantage Georgia.

Coaching:  Overall coaching I would give the edge to Boise, but I would give Georgia the edge in defensive coordinator.  Todd Grantham is the 3rd highest paid assistance in the country, and is one of the best defensive minds in football.  Expect a big improvement in Georgia's defense in the second year under his 3-4 scheme (similar to what Saban runs at Bama).

Thoughts:  There are very few teams that I would put in the catagory of having elite talent.  With 4 top 9 recruiting classes in the last 5 years, Georgia is very, very close to earning that label, but their not quite there yet.  Nevertheless, the talent and athletic gap between Georgia and Boise is huge - too huge for Boise to overcome for 60 minutes IMO.  Barring a Virginia Tech-style self-destruction, the Dawgs should win this game by a comfortable margin.

This game will be my first Covers Blood Bath Alert game of the year.  People are going to based their wagering desions on a complete smoke and mirrors victory by Boise over Virginia Tech last season, and Georgia's ugly Liberty Bowl loss to UCF.  Don't fall for it.  Play on the home "Dawgs" with superior talent.

I love Georgia in this game.

Jenkins/Geathers will be in Moore's lap the whole game.

Georgia by two td's.

Oh trust me, I wasn't busting your balls at all, just trying to provide another perspective.  I think it's an excellent writeup in which you address most of the salient points of this matchup.

Boise is entering this game as the favorite with a ton of bluster from the mainstream media.  To hear the talking heads from Bristol tell it,  the most compelling storyline of this contest is whether the Broncos will squeak by with a mere 2-TD victory, or whether they'll really decide to put the throttle down and beat them by 40.  They (and many on Covers) act as if this will be a perfunctory victory over New Mexico State.  I can tell you with absolute certainty that the team that's feeling very disrespected right now, particularly since they've had to listen to how terrible they are in the wake of their embarrasing performance against UCF, is Georgia, and that's not a good omen for Boise.

That doesn't take away from the fact that this is a huge game for Boise.  After traveling the long lonely road to national prominence and respect, they sure don't want to let this game get away from them.  They know if they lose this game that they have no shot whatsoever at playing for a BCS title this season, regardless of the outcome of the remainder of their games.  Moreover, after never having been remotely competitive against an SEC opponent in the past, you can bet they'd love to add a SEC feather to their cap.

Yes, it is true that everyone knows that the South Carolina game is a far more important game for Georgia in the grand scheme of things, but the Boise game is still a huge opportunity for Georgia to get the UCF monkey off of their back in front of a national audience.  I don't think lack motivation will be an issue for Georgia.  That team will be spitting nails come kickoff.

I don't have my Phil Steele's magazine yet (bought one earlier but gave it to my nephew).  My new one should be coming in the mail any day now.  But as of right now I'm a little confused on who the likely starters for Boise will be across the offensive line.  I'm guessing:

Bronson Durrant at center, Jake Broyles & Spencer Gerke at guards, and Charles Leno and Greg Duhmen at tackles.

Is this even close?  Is Boise really going to start a redshirt freshman at right tackle to protect Kellen Moore's blindside?  In any event Boise is fortunate that Georgia's DE Justin Houston moved on to the NFL (70th overall pick by the Chiefs).  Highly touted Abry Jones out of Northside HS now steps into the lineup across from whomever Boise plugs in at that RT spot.

Jones is also not without experience.  Some may recall that he earned SEC lineman of the week honors for his 16-tackle and forced fumble performance against Georgia Tech last season.

I believe with Boise raw receivers going against a secondary that returns all four starters, and was one of the better secondaries in the country last season is a terrible matchup for Boise.  And if Boise is plugging in the underclassman that I think they are along the offensive line, I think it'll be a long evening for them as well.  I honestly think Boise's offense will struggle against Georgia's defense, and will not eclipse the 14-point mark in this game,

Quote Originally Posted by SatNightFever05:



Great write-up.. think it comes down to the front 7 of Boise vs. the UGA offense.. if Boise can get to Murray and contain Crowell, Boise should be able to put up pts against a decent, but not that good UGA defense..

Conversely, if Murray has time, he should be able to make some throws down the field, with Boise replacing 2 in the secondary..

Lean towards the Under, looks like you do as well..

Agree that this game most likely stays UNDER if the number if it comes in somewhere around 55 or above.

Ok thanks.  Will take a closer look at this.

I believe that is correct.  I know Broyles is on the right side.  I assume they'll put Leno next to him.  Leno is small for a tackle, but suppose to be pretty stout.

Peterson is a better pre-game coach, in-game coach, after-game coach, is better looking, and I hear a better dancer as well.  Kellen Moore and Petersn are the only reasons Boise will have a legitimate shot to win this game.

I have my Phil Steeles mag. right in front of me

starting lineup according to Phil

QB        Kellen Moore   sr      6-0  191

RB        Doug Martin     sr     5-9    215

WR       Tyler Shoemaker sr   6-1 213

WR       Chris   Potter    jr      5-9  158

WR       Geraldo Hiwat     so    6-4  200

TE         Kyle Efaw         sr      6-4    242

C           Thomas  Byrd  sr       5-11   288

RG        Jake Broyles   so        6-4   278

LG       Joe Kellogg   jr           6-2   299

RT       Charles Leno   so       6-3   278

LT       Nate  Potter     sr        6-6   300

Quote Originally Posted by LarryWayne10:

All I know is that Boise opened the year down here a few years ago and everybody thought Boise was gonna pull the upset.  I think it was like 45-13 or something that UGA.  I know its different players now, but the talent of  UGA is way better than Boise State's just as it was then. Could be a close game and Boise could pull some trick plays to stay in it, but I think UGA will win the game easily.  -Biased post from the ATL.  

Completely agree.  Been saying pretty much the same thing.  This game really shouldn't be that close.