I wanted to share my thoughts on betting Week 1 openers this season
relative to " Assumed Risk " in a Covid enviornment.
This season, bettors will have to make a choice as to what price to
make a wager at , but also when to make the wager due to the
timing and magnitude of outbreaks of Covid at various schools.
UT reported 13 cases , Clemson reported 21 players this week.
Betting " early openers " transfers all of the Covid risk to bettors.
Assuming this risk , at a elevated price , just compounds the risk
to the bettor on a wager.
I don't know how others feel about this , but in another thread ,
I stated that I feel Covid risk is real , and potentially unquantifiable
to a bettor who uses risk management as part of their strategy.
To reduce risk from Covid , I'm choosing place wagers within
2 weeks of kickoff , rather than assume 2 months of risk by
betting early openers.
I feel that by waiting , I will have a better grasp of who will
start for teams , and also whether they will play at all.
By waiting, I still have the capability to bet any matchup , as
well as any side , and at any price that presents value to me.
This requires " Betting Discipline " , but it will also increase my WP.
Just a thought.