All game picks: 33-34-2
B1G: 13-13-1
Props: 6-2
B1G week 14:
1. Oregon
2. OSU +1.2
3. Indiana +3.2
4. USC +10.9
5. Michigan +12
6. Washington +14.8
7. Nebraska +21.5
8. Iowa +22.9
9. Penn St +25.8
10. Illinois +27
11. NW +28
12. MSU +31.3
13. UCLA +34
14. Rutgers +34.2
15. Maryland +34.8
16. Purdue +35.8
17. Wisconsin +36.1
18. Minnesota +37.5
Early week 14 lines via DK
Iowa -14.5 @ Nebraska
Indiana -28.5 @ Purdue
OSU -12.5 @ Michigan
Oregon -7.5 @ Washington
NW @ Illinois -7
Wisconsin @ Minnesota -2.5
Penn St @ Rutger - off
UCLA @ USC - off
Maryland @ MSU - off
Michigan/OSU - the boring stuff
My yearly super bowl. A game I'm slowly dissecting 13 weeks a season leading up to kickoff. This game is one of the tougher caps because of the pure lack of useable data for both teams really.
Injuries
There are key injuries to major offensive contributors on both sides. OSU has been without Carnell Tate for several weeks and my guess is that he doesn't play in this game - have heard this might not be entirely injury related either so not sure what's going on. Jeremiah Smith is also banged up but I think he plays. How healthy is he? Who knows but will command a lot of attention. OSU starting nickle went down with a nasty shoulder injury last week, didn't look good but not sure on what his status is but I'd expect out. Pass game hasn't looked pretty w/o them. Michigan will be without RB Justice Haynes but Jordan Marshall is a full go and from what I hear near 100%. Big injury people probably don't recognize for Michigan is FB Max Bredesen with a foot injury last week. Team captain. Heart and soul guy. 3rd/4th and short you KNOW the ball is following this guy into the pile and you can feel pretty confident the ball is ending up on the right side of the line to gain. Those are important points in this matchup considering the team to win the rushing battle has won EVERY single game since 2001. Bredesen says he is giving it a go but I have no idea how long he's in or what the extent of his foot injury is. Defensively Michigan looks like they'll be as healthy as they have been the past month. The weird one here is LB Ernest Hausmann - a complete stud - took a random hiatus last week. If you haven't heard about this it's a strange situation where he made some spiritual social media posts and seemed to have quit football - only to then start posting about how he has never left and it's game week. So I assume he is in. Other LB's Sullivan and Rolder also returned and good to go. This is important because it allows Jaishawn Barham to be an edge rusher and he is very dangerous in this role. Big time talent.
Weather situation
All I can say for sure at this point is it'll be cloudy and cold. Highs 29-32, winds around 10 mph and real feel low to mid 20's. Conditions certainly will be a consideration for this version of the game. There is snow in the forecast but the timing is very much up in the air. Latest update this morning looks like there may be quite a bit more snow than previously expected (4-5" range) but as of now looks to be holding off until around the time the game ends. Few hour time shift though and this could be a snow bowl so careful if you're looking at totals today.
Michigan O / OSU D 1 of 2
Here's where I think it's extremely important to watch and understand a team as opposed to reading statistics. The Wolverines have the youngest team in the B1G this season - and that has shown quite a bit as we've played the games. It's looked downright dysfunctional at times but on the year the O is averaging 421.5 yards per game (ranked 28 out of 134) which is about 135 yards more per game than the 2024 team (ranked 128 out of 134). People think Michigan and you think offensive line and running the football. Which is again the key. The OL has dealt with injuries, they were pretty bad to start the year, and they had major issues with protecting the QB. Underwood has shown glimpses of being great and also has made many 'freshman' mistakes where he throws balls that have no business being thrown. Not only will OSU take away some of these errors they'll probably be house calls. His QBR on the year is around 25th in the country though and the recent bye week has yielded very noticeable results for the offense. The OL has taken a clear step - getting push up front I haven't seen in a couple years and Bryce has really developed trust in the group which has led to significantly better performance from him. His QBR the last few weeks is near 90 which is amongst the best in the nation. Furthermore, I forgot to mention in the injury section they'll be getting TE Hogan Hansen back which is another key target for him and with the emergence of WR Andrew Marsh there is a legitimate threat throwing the ball here against what I think are some gettable corners for OSU.
Michigan O / OSU D 2 of 2
Michigan lost star RB Justice Haynes for the time being, but have another star behind him in Jordan Marshall who is a Cincinnati kid and built for this type of game. He is a bruiser, he doesn't have that home run speed that Haynes possesses - more likely he gets tracked down inside the 15 and that can be problematic against a very stout goal line D like the Buckeyes have. Behind Marshall it's just plug and play for this team. Last week a 2 star walk on started and had 100 yards and 3 TD's. The OSU run defense is looked at as the best in the nation but this is where you have to look at the schedule. Opening the season OSU played Texas - who it turns out is as one dimensional as you can be at the time - and the Longhorns who now rank outside the top 100 rushing offenses put 166 yards and 4.5 ypc on a run D thats allowing just 71 rush yards/game and 2.6 ypc. I think in the trenches Texas is the closest comparison to what Michigan will bring to the table and Michigan ranks about 2 full yards/carry better than Texas this year. Again, schedule responsible for some of that but it's an area I think Michigan can and will once again exploit. Shockingly enough this Michigan team is averaging its highest yards per carry of any of the prior 4 Michigan teams who have won this game and this OL has just recently found its identity imo. Having Underwood behind center and his dual threat abilities is also something that needs to be considered now. The big looming concern here is does Underwood revert to having freshman moments? Because if he does the turnovers can pile up - although for as good as the OSU D has been they're only a +0.4 turnover/game margin. I may be in the minority here but I do think Michigan is able to throw the ball way more effectively than most expect - and the run game I think is able to have a very big game as well and average north of 4 ypc.
OSU pass D also gets a lot of attention. Here's a wild list for you. Arch Manning, C'zavien Teasett, Parker Navarro, Drake Lindsey, Luke Altmeyer, Hunter Simmons, Ethan Grunkemeyer, Ryan Browne, Luke Duncan, Athan Kaliakmanis. Those are the QB's the defense has faced and imo the 2 useable data points are Altmeyer and Williams (ILL & UW). They went 48/66 421 yards. Not mind blowing but 73% completions vs ssn average of 61%. My point being - fantastic when it comes to shutting down a completely one dimensional offense. This, in my opinion, is by FAR the most balanced attack they'll see all year.
OSU O / Michigan D
The OSU O has been pouring it on as the season goes. The 2 key injuries above loom large here. Both guys playing and healthy is definitely concerning because I don't think Michigan has the horses on the back end to cover 2 NFL 1st rounders. They've been susceptible to the pass all year long and to me Jyaire Hill has looked completely lost at times in coverage - and this is against dudes with nowhere near the Jeremiah Smith level talent. My angle again is this schedule. FWIW I do think Julian Sayin is a PERFECT QB for OSU. He's extremely smart with the ball but he's essentially playing catch with 2 stars who are either 5+ years in the clear or catching any ball in their orbit. Truly impressive and I'm excited to see #4 up close Saturday afternoon. For as much as this rivalry means around here, the most enjoyable part is being able to see these future NFL stars over the years before they 'make it.'
To the point here I think the success lies in the arms of Bo Jackson for OSU. And I think he's going to be extremely good... but I also think this is a really difficult position for a true freshman to step in and handle the physical expectations. Michigan run D has been good. Lost the stars in the middle but the depth is better as Graham and Grant pretty much played the entire game last year. I'm good with giving up the pass yards to Smith and Klare and whoever else. The recipe is the same and it's keep those gains to 30-40 yards not the 70 yard TD ball. I sat there in 2021 and watched Stroud throw for 400 yards, JSN 127 recieving, Garrett Williams 119 yards and Olave 88 yards. That team got beat by 15.
I think the OL for OSU has to be significantly better, particularly on the right side and I think they need to establish a run game against a Michigan D that is #10 at 3.0 ypc which is tied with the 2024 team for best mark in this 4 year winning streak. Sayin is having a good year statistically and again I see 3 useable games for data here (using my ratings) and he's 54/75 (72%) and avg 166 ypg. SMART with the ball but overall idk. Now the Cali kid is apparently playing in his first cold weather game and I do think it makes a difference throwing the ball. Will be interested to see how quick they try to get the ball out of his hand... but again the run game needs to work for them imo.
I looked at the 2024 title team and there playoff run vs Tennessee, ND, Texas, and Oregon they were a avg of 427 yards for and 281 yards against. This year against Texas, Illinois and Washington (down their top 3 defensive players) they were 278 yards for and 288 yards against. Outgained by Texas 336 - 203 was the shocking one as Texas has gotten torched by most teams in the SEC. One game I left out as they didn't really make a jump in my ratings until the past 2 weeks is the dismantling of Penn St. I think that needs to be acknowledged for what the passing game did to the Lions.
Special teams and coaching
Zavada has been a surprising liability but know when he's on he's one of the best. Punting is an abomination. ST is typically an area Michigan has held an edge in this game and i believe that is completely evaporated in 2025. Zvada 12/19 and Fielding is 13/15. One recent development that I've not seen mentioned once is Semaj Morgan being demoted to as far away from the football field as possible. Was the return guy for most of the season and I think put up 35 yards (3 yard/return). Unless you watch these games I cannot emphasize strongly enough how many yards this guy has cost the team by not being able to make a fair catch and nearly zero return yards when he does. Andrew Marsh is the guy now and it just puts the O in such a better place starting out. Not to mention all the drops Semaj has had in the pass game. Thanks but no thanks on him.
Sherrone Moore is a weird dude to figure out. Looks like he is in over his head all year long and then in November he just quietly has this team playing its best ball - seemingly working towards this game all year long. I don't have a lot to say about Ryan Day. Good coach, great offensive mind, probably a nice guy... complete mental pretzel in this game.
What's it all mean?
I think Michigan can run the ball and stop the run again. I don't think enough credit/understanding being given to some of the things like OL play and ST changes. Since 2001 the team that wins the rushing battle wins outright. I think it's threat level 10 if Bryce is rattled and OSU is able to make UM one dimensional - which as noted above I don't think will be the case. I think the Michigan pass rush has potential to have a monster day and put Sayin in a really tough spot if Day abandons the run like the social media fanbase is requesting. If Michigan plays as sloppy as they've shown (ie NW) and turn it over left and right they're gonna lose this game by 3+ scores - but as I've always said I don't ever expect turnovers its too hard to predict. I have OSU 10 pts better and home field cuts this down lower so i think the line move is correct and there is still value at 10.
Score prediction: Michigan 24 Ohio St 20 -- I'll say I think this game has potential to be even higher scoring but weather will be a factor imo.
My play: Michigan +12.5
One other thing if you are leaning Ohio St in this game is the hire of Matt Patricia. I laughed at it last summer, but one thing I'll say is I think it's calculated in a sense that he is an NFL DC and it means something in this game... not defensively but offensively. What did Michigan do in 2021? Hired Mike Mcdonald as DC from the Ravens. Then Jesse Minter - also Ravens system. Then Wink out of the NFL. The defenses these guys run confuse college quarterbacks. The pre-snap look and then what happens after the snap is really difficult for 95% of college QB's to figure out. Fortunately for Underwood he's been practicing against this stuff for nearly a full year now. I think Sayin being able to practice against this style of defense can only be taken as a positive coming into this game. Will Howard was completely lost last year but Sayin should be much better prepared to face Michigan.
Obviously my play is on UM as above but if you're on the fence this is a good reason to sway you towards making a bet imo. Just because I'm reasoning for one side doesn't diminish the other angles - there's plenty of ways to look at this game but if I can make a case statistically I'm at least at peace with the outcome no matter what it is!
GL 
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