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Ark St/FIU Over/Under seems fishy??

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
Both teams on average score about 28/game and give up 21/game.  The line is sitting around 53 still.  After researching this game I liked the under quite a bit.  Anyone else think this line is fishy?
 
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Posted: #2
Adding in that the weather won't be great tonight (cold and possibly rainy) and the line hasn't moved too much. 
 
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Posted: #3
at 52 now ... 

 
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Posted: #4
HAMMER the over guys.
 
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Posted: #5

Yep.  Hammer the over.  Nearly everyone is on under.   easy cash on the over.

 
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Posted: #6
Great reasoning?  I don't care what side people are on, I don't get caught up in line movements.  I'd prefer someone to argue why the over is a better play other than "take the over because everyone is on the under".
 
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Posted: #7

2 sunbelt teams on national tv screams over to me.  I can't recall ever hearing about an epic defensive battle in the Sunbelt.

Then again this could be like Hawaii and San Jose St and each team turns the ball over 6 times.

 
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Posted: #8
Arkansas St. can't run. If this game's going to be competitive, look for the over.
 
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Posted: #9

where you get that it's cold and rainy?  Shows cloudy with no chance of rain according to vegasinsider.

 

However if it does rain than OVER is the play.

 
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Posted: #10
Arkansas St played a 24-19 game vs LA-Monroe last week. 
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by dont_bet:

where you get that it's cold and rainy?  Shows cloudy with no chance of rain according to vegasinsider.

 

However if it does rain than OVER is the play.



Agreed.
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by Frenchy:

Yep.  Hammer the over.  Nearly everyone is on under.   easy cash on the over.


That's funny, because Pregame's consensus says 60% are on the over. It's so funny when people talk out of their ass. 

 
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Posted: #13
It will be around 40 degrees at game time with a chain of rain according to weather.com
 
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Posted: #14
I'm just looking for someone to play devil's advocate.  Like I said, this line seems fishy because I was expecting it to be around 50.  The fact it hasn't moved that much makes me skeptical of playing the under.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Frenchy:

Yep.  Hammer the over.  Nearly everyone is on under.   easy cash on the over.



There is basically equal action on the side as well as the total, so ok.  Even if there wasn't, like I said your reasoning is flawed.
 
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Posted: #16
5dimes went from 52, 25 minutes ago, and is now sitting at 54.5 for whatever it's worth.
 
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Posted: #17
Ya it is at 54 at sportsbook now. 
 
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Posted: #18
I use a tracking service that updates in real time from various sportsbooks.

The public is on the over, not the under as some have mentioned.

Out of 22,172 wagers on the total, roughly over 13,000 have been on the over.

I am on the under 53
 
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Posted: #19
I'll be rolling with the under.  I'll probably wait a few more minutes to get the best line.
 
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by Brownies85:

Adding in that the weather won't be great tonight (cold and possibly rainy) and the line hasn't moved too much. 

Just FYI guys I have a friend there who is doing his internship at a local hospital in Arkansas and it is cloudy and cool... but only expecting a small light shower as there is 10% chance for the entire game... Also if you are asking what side of the line to be on I would say the under IMO... i think for FIU to keep it close they will rely heavily on their running attack with those two studs (well about as big of studs you can find in Sunbelt lol) and then hit Hilton when they need a big play. I am on FIU +3.5 and under 53.5 tonight Best of luck

 
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Posted: #21
Rain and cold are not huge factors in totals it is wind. Rain may effect a total a little but not much maybe a few points. 

FI away games have played UNDER 7-8 since 2009.
Ark St home games  have played 7-4 OVER since 2009. 

My total was 46.5. No play for me because Ark St games trend to the over. Poor D/Good O who knows. Total is high to me.

GL




 
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Posted: #22
Rule of thumb is to take Tuesday night UNDERS......

ARK ST -3
UNDER 54.5
 
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Posted: #23
Line will hit 55 or more,last 30 mins over getting hammered,I have 53.5 and line still going up.
 
 
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Posted: #24

NO rain play UNDER.

 

Also, if 1H is low scoring...play OVER 2H.

 

These sunbelt are weird..could be no score 1Q and 28 pts next Q.

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