Alabama +7

Ok. I get it. Indiana is a good team. But 7 pt favs? 

Let’s take a bit of a deeper dive.

Indiana played 5 top 30 defenses (total yards against)

in 3 of those games they were underdogs and covered

in 2 of those games they were favorites. And did not cover.

too many points for a good defense. Give me the 7

The IU QB, like he was at Cal, average against teams with top defense. Bama is 13th in total D playing a top 3 SOS.

Overall I agree with your assessment. The one caveat is Alabama has issues with their OL. That's what Georgia exploited perfectly in the SEC Championship. Oklahoma was a bit over-rated IMO, but still should have won that game. They played stupid in the second half. 

I'm thinking the under might be the safer play here.