Quote Originally Posted by stoltz:
Still no love for Big East teams, I see. I happened to watch a quick
segment on ESPN this am where Corso and Herbstredt began picking which
teams would advance in a mock playoff. WVU was up against Kansas and
both turkeys picked Kansas to win the game. Kansas?!?! WTF? The ONLY
team Kansas has beaten with a winning record was Texas A&M - and
they barely won that game. The only other team they played that was
worth a spit was Missouri, and they weren't even in that game until
they got a couple of meaningless 4Q scores. At least WVU beat two teams
that are still ranked in the BCS top-25. Gimme a break!
But I guess it's to be expected. Even if WVU had beaten USF and/or
Pitt, people would still think they would be unworthy of a BCS bid -
let alone a shot in the NC. I doubt another undefeated bowl season this
year for the Big East would make any difference, either, as last year's
doesn't seem to bring them any more credibility this year.
Anyway, the Fiesta Bowl. Everyone and their brother seems to be all
over Oklahoma in this one. On the surface I can see why - it's
Oklahoma, they are ranked #3, WVU had an emotional loss to end their
season, blah, blah, blah. But people seem to overlook a few things:
1. Oklahoma has a 2-2 RS away record this year. Not too impressive,
especially when those two losses were both against UNRANKED teams. WVU
has lost one time on the road (to then #2 - and now #21 - USF) and once
at home - both due in part to Pat White not playing in the 2H and the
case of turnover-itis.
2. Oklahoma beat Missouri - twice. But, seriously, Missouri? If there
was ever two hyped teams this year in CFB, it would have to be Kansas
and Missouri. I think Missouri is a very good team, but they (and
Kansas) had the luxury of playing not only a weak schedule, but in a
conference that was overall weak this year. Oklahoma, IMHO, is the best
from the Big-12 without a doubt, but I really don't see that meaning
they are some unstoppable force (especially losing to TWO unranked
Big-12 foes).
3. Oklahoma hasn't fared so well in recent years when it comes to bowl
games. Since 2003, they are 1-3 in bowl games. WVU is slightly better
at 2-2, but are 2-0 in the last two years. That includes a victory over
Georgia in the 2005 Sugar Bowl in which - strangely coincidental -
everyone and their brother were all over the Bulldogs to win.
4. Experience. Oklahoma has a fine young QB, but he has never played in
a bowl game before - let alone one at this level. Conversely, WVU is
loaded with players who have one or more bowl games under their belt,
including some big ones. And these people aren't the kicker or punter,
but the QB, RB's, and other key positions.
5. Demoralizing defeat by Pitt will carry over to the bowl game for
WVU. I don't buy it for one minute. Last year WVU was 8-1 and all set
to not only win the Big East championship, but vie for the chance to
play in the NC. USF came to Morgantown, and completely ruined both
those chances. Instead of laying down and giving up the next week
against a tough Rutgers squad, they won that game and then went on to
defeat Georgia Tech in their bowl game.
It should be a good game and despite of what I wrote, I think Oklahoma
has a good chance of winning - just not a 99.99% chance like many
believe. What I think could very well happen is something similar to
the So. Miss game earlier this year and the Sugar Bowl two years ago -
WVU will come out and completely dominate the 1Q and 1H and Oklahoma
will find themselves down by 3-5 scores. OU will regroup and the 2H
will be completely different, which will lead to a very close game.
Oklahoma 35
West Virginia 38
Some counter points.
1. Oklahoma's two losses were not horrible losses. They lost to a very young and talented Colorado team that got a bunch of breaks in the game including a muffed fair catch with just over 4 min left in the game that allowed CU to tie it. Against Texas Tech they lost their QB Bradford on the second series and he is a big part of their offense.
2. WVU's two losses were against good defenses which is exactly what OU has. With a month of preparation and talent at every position, don't expect the OU defense to give up much to WVU. Plus the strength of the OU defense is against the run, it's a very good matchup for them.
3. Past bowl games and records mean nothing, absolutely nothing. It's all about this matchup and these players. WVU needs to stop hanging on the bowl win against UGA several years ago. That has absolutely no bearing on this game.
4. The coaching situation will play a HUGE factor in this game. Rich Rod just abandoned his team and is taking some of his staff with him. The players will not be fully motivated, and the remaining staff will not be as equipped to fully run the team. Plus the loss to Pitt is HUGE. Not being able to play for the National Championship is a big letdown and tough to overcome. With no replacement coach named it wouldn't surprise me to see WVU fall apart in this game if they get behind early.
Everything favors Oklahoma in this game. Even if WVU can keep it close for a half, by the end OU will win easily. There are just too many factors against WVU (overall talent, overall team speed, coaching, motivation).
But hey, we all have our opinions so good luck with your picks.
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