Bankroll management is over rated to an extent. You gotta take shots in sports betting and poker
or it'll take you an eternity to move up outside of hitting a huge
parlay or binking a big tournament. That's not saying bet money you
don't have, but if you're dropping $25 a game there comes a time where
you need to sack up and start throwing down $50 a game and if you lose a few buys or bets,
drop back down to $25. Otherwise you'll be betting $25 a game forever.
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Bankroll management is over rated to an extent. You gotta take shots in sports betting and poker
or it'll take you an eternity to move up outside of hitting a huge
parlay or binking a big tournament. That's not saying bet money you
don't have, but if you're dropping $25 a game there comes a time where
you need to sack up and start throwing down $50 a game and if you lose a few buys or bets,
drop back down to $25. Otherwise you'll be betting $25 a game forever.
Another huge fallacy: consensus selections. Too many people believe if handicapper A,B, & C agree on this selection, it must hit with a higher percentage than other of their strongest plays.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Line movements are far too market driven and sophisticated to allow for such inferences. If cappers' A, B & C agree on a pick, it is likely because they are using the exact same system(s)/capping rules/logic to arrive at that pick. Thus the win percentage will be the same as if only one had given the pick.
Capping is a science and an art. Science in the sense of crunching stats/situations and shopping lines; art in the sense of watching games and using educated hunches or intuition to make plays more likely to cover - without the pressure to have to cover because your chasing losses or having other financial/emotional or other upheaval in your life. If you do both with a reasonably disciplined money management system that you actually follow, you will win. Easier said than done & good luck if you can do it. :)
GW
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Another huge fallacy: consensus selections. Too many people believe if handicapper A,B, & C agree on this selection, it must hit with a higher percentage than other of their strongest plays.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Line movements are far too market driven and sophisticated to allow for such inferences. If cappers' A, B & C agree on a pick, it is likely because they are using the exact same system(s)/capping rules/logic to arrive at that pick. Thus the win percentage will be the same as if only one had given the pick.
Capping is a science and an art. Science in the sense of crunching stats/situations and shopping lines; art in the sense of watching games and using educated hunches or intuition to make plays more likely to cover - without the pressure to have to cover because your chasing losses or having other financial/emotional or other upheaval in your life. If you do both with a reasonably disciplined money management system that you actually follow, you will win. Easier said than done & good luck if you can do it. :)
I finally figured out my problem but it was too late for this season.
My problem was that I bet on too many games.
I also did bluebirds with the local bookie.
They had 3 teams for 5 points (5 X your amount if all 3 hit) and a 5 on 5 special. The 5 on 5 special is put 5 dollars on 5 teams and you win 100 if they all hit.
Here is where my stupidity came in.
I was always able to pick 3 teams to win, but was always going for 5 on 5. I gave 100 bucks a week for 20 cards thinking I could at least hit 2-3 to either break even or gain a little profit.
Now you might ask yourself "Well why not just bet on 3 teams and you will win a lot more than you are now?"
Because I was thinking too narrow about 5 on 5, and nothing else.
Knowing this, I lost out on thousands this year........But there's always next year. I guess it's best I learned this now. Still sucks but it's a lesson learned.
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I finally figured out my problem but it was too late for this season.
My problem was that I bet on too many games.
I also did bluebirds with the local bookie.
They had 3 teams for 5 points (5 X your amount if all 3 hit) and a 5 on 5 special. The 5 on 5 special is put 5 dollars on 5 teams and you win 100 if they all hit.
Here is where my stupidity came in.
I was always able to pick 3 teams to win, but was always going for 5 on 5. I gave 100 bucks a week for 20 cards thinking I could at least hit 2-3 to either break even or gain a little profit.
Now you might ask yourself "Well why not just bet on 3 teams and you will win a lot more than you are now?"
Because I was thinking too narrow about 5 on 5, and nothing else.
Knowing this, I lost out on thousands this year........But there's always next year. I guess it's best I learned this now. Still sucks but it's a lesson learned.
I finally figured out my problem but it was too late for this season.
My problem was that I bet on too many games.
I also did bluebirds with the local bookie.
They had 3 teams for 5 points (5 X your amount if all 3 hit) and a 5 on 5 special. The 5 on 5 special is put 5 dollars on 5 teams and you win 100 if they all hit.
Here is where my stupidity came in.
I was always able to pick 3 teams to win, but was always going for 5 on 5. I gave 100 bucks a week for 20 cards thinking I could at least hit 2-3 to either break even or gain a little profit.
Now you might ask yourself "Well why not just bet on 3 teams and you will win a lot more than you are now?"
Because I was thinking too narrow about 5 on 5, and nothing else.
Knowing this, I lost out on thousands this year........But there's always next year. I guess it's best I learned this now. Still sucks but it's a lesson learned.
If your bookie gets enough takers on that he can quit his day job as a bridge salesman .
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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Quote Originally Posted by TigerTy:
I finally figured out my problem but it was too late for this season.
My problem was that I bet on too many games.
I also did bluebirds with the local bookie.
They had 3 teams for 5 points (5 X your amount if all 3 hit) and a 5 on 5 special. The 5 on 5 special is put 5 dollars on 5 teams and you win 100 if they all hit.
Here is where my stupidity came in.
I was always able to pick 3 teams to win, but was always going for 5 on 5. I gave 100 bucks a week for 20 cards thinking I could at least hit 2-3 to either break even or gain a little profit.
Now you might ask yourself "Well why not just bet on 3 teams and you will win a lot more than you are now?"
Because I was thinking too narrow about 5 on 5, and nothing else.
Knowing this, I lost out on thousands this year........But there's always next year. I guess it's best I learned this now. Still sucks but it's a lesson learned.
If your bookie gets enough takers on that he can quit his day job as a bridge salesman .
I have had gambled for about 10 years now and have had a winning record for the last four now ( over the 53% break even mark) but this is the first year I have seen a profit and it is all because of betting discipline, mainly not betting on parlays or teasers
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I have had gambled for about 10 years now and have had a winning record for the last four now ( over the 53% break even mark) but this is the first year I have seen a profit and it is all because of betting discipline, mainly not betting on parlays or teasers
The other reason people lose is falling for the Vegas traps, you know the 'Locks' and theses are usually the biggest bets. There is nothing wrong with raising your bet on the ones you like more if you have a proven record.
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The other reason people lose is falling for the Vegas traps, you know the 'Locks' and theses are usually the biggest bets. There is nothing wrong with raising your bet on the ones you like more if you have a proven record.
I have been at this for over 20+ years know and hear is my 2 cents.
1)Discipline: You must be Disciplined and treat this like a business. If you have the attitude that ahh its just a $50 or 100 dollars no big deal you will loose. I personally have a check list I read over before I bet a game. It helps me stay in check and make sure the games I wager on meet my criteria. 2) Watch the games! I have 4 tv's on my patio and watch games from noon, till. Like any other business if you don't put in the time forget about it. 3) A lot has been said about betting to many games. I agree. I break it down as follows. Average weekend 60 games, that leaves a possibility of a 120 different wagers between spreads and totals. I wager between 15-20 games a weekend. That is approx 15% of the weekend card. I do not consider that a large amount. 4) Money Management. NEVER BET MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE!!! I do not bet the same amount for every game. I have A,B,C games A games get the most C games get the least. 5) Have patients its a grind. 6) Bad weeks happen never chase or play what if games in your head you only jeopardize yourself. 7)Parlays and teasers are a waste and do not pay of proper odds any way so why bet them? 8) Be your own man bet your own games. 9) When you collect do not spend it, its a business remember do with it what you would do in a business stash it.Capital is a beautiful thing. 10) A good scotch and a cigar always helps.
Good Luck MERRY CHRISTMAS.
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I have been at this for over 20+ years know and hear is my 2 cents.
1)Discipline: You must be Disciplined and treat this like a business. If you have the attitude that ahh its just a $50 or 100 dollars no big deal you will loose. I personally have a check list I read over before I bet a game. It helps me stay in check and make sure the games I wager on meet my criteria. 2) Watch the games! I have 4 tv's on my patio and watch games from noon, till. Like any other business if you don't put in the time forget about it. 3) A lot has been said about betting to many games. I agree. I break it down as follows. Average weekend 60 games, that leaves a possibility of a 120 different wagers between spreads and totals. I wager between 15-20 games a weekend. That is approx 15% of the weekend card. I do not consider that a large amount. 4) Money Management. NEVER BET MORE THAN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE!!! I do not bet the same amount for every game. I have A,B,C games A games get the most C games get the least. 5) Have patients its a grind. 6) Bad weeks happen never chase or play what if games in your head you only jeopardize yourself. 7)Parlays and teasers are a waste and do not pay of proper odds any way so why bet them? 8) Be your own man bet your own games. 9) When you collect do not spend it, its a business remember do with it what you would do in a business stash it.Capital is a beautiful thing. 10) A good scotch and a cigar always helps.
Yep, Totally agree wit watc7ing games and being as well-informed and educated as possible on ALL games and NEVER betting Parlays/Teasers...Sucker bets for sure!!!
%2 rule works, and if you win...$25 bets CAN TURN INTO $50 bets, and eventually even $1000 bets as long as its still just %2 of your bankroll! I turned $1000 into $3500 on $20/25-flat bets at a time...W/O using %2 bankroll system, and I would've made ALOT more if I did increase my bet amount as I kept winning(could've afforded to do $60 bets at $3,000...Still just %2) Cost myself 100's...if not 1,000's!!! TRY IT!!!
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Yep, Totally agree wit watc7ing games and being as well-informed and educated as possible on ALL games and NEVER betting Parlays/Teasers...Sucker bets for sure!!!
%2 rule works, and if you win...$25 bets CAN TURN INTO $50 bets, and eventually even $1000 bets as long as its still just %2 of your bankroll! I turned $1000 into $3500 on $20/25-flat bets at a time...W/O using %2 bankroll system, and I would've made ALOT more if I did increase my bet amount as I kept winning(could've afforded to do $60 bets at $3,000...Still just %2) Cost myself 100's...if not 1,000's!!! TRY IT!!!
how a gambler reacts to adversity is key…how often do you see someone who is hot become conservative and someone who is getting crushed throw out max wagers to get back to even ? how a gambler maintains or loses composure during a losing streak is the number one factor to failure or success
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how a gambler reacts to adversity is key…how often do you see someone who is hot become conservative and someone who is getting crushed throw out max wagers to get back to even ? how a gambler maintains or loses composure during a losing streak is the number one factor to failure or success
Alien-1, I think you should write about gambling. I sure would buy one or two.
When I was a youngster, I bought a small pocket book called "THE TEN COMMANDMENTS OF HOYLE". I can't remember them all but some I think is very important to follow e.g.
1) Know the game before playing.
2) Money management.
3) Do not chase your money.
4) Do not mix drinking with gambling.
I think MONEY MANAGEMENT is # 1
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Alien-1, I think you should write about gambling. I sure would buy one or two.
When I was a youngster, I bought a small pocket book called "THE TEN COMMANDMENTS OF HOYLE". I can't remember them all but some I think is very important to follow e.g.
Valid Point ! Money Management and wagering approach go hand and hand. Its equally as important as to your ability. The ONLY, ONLY, ONLY figure that really matters is (ROI)
Return On Investment
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Valid Point ! Money Management and wagering approach go hand and hand. Its equally as important as to your ability. The ONLY, ONLY, ONLY figure that really matters is (ROI)
Excellent thread and very useful. Everything that was said I have been through. In the end I think money management is the best defense. Though part is understanding "when" you are on a hot streak cause nobody wins 100% of the time.
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Excellent thread and very useful. Everything that was said I have been through. In the end I think money management is the best defense. Though part is understanding "when" you are on a hot streak cause nobody wins 100% of the time.
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