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    All Forums | College Football

    #1 reason why 90% of sports bettors are not successful

    «First Previous 123456 Next Last»
    WISEGUY36
    Alien-1
    Black_Ice
    warcameagle56
    ATLGettinPaper
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    «First Previous 123456 Next Last»
     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 1:57 AM ET #51

    Quote Originally Posted by Alien-1:

    losing streaks hit EVERYONE..........I don't care who you are. the 2 for 10 or 1 for 8 losing streak hits EVERYONE no matter how good your capping skills are. 15 or 20 in a row is a rarity but does happen even to the best cappers. My point is losing streaks(BAD ONES) happen to us all.





    And I'm saying that the chances of encountering a losing
    streak of that magnitude is dramatically reduced by solid
    handicapping skills , and wagering on props that provide
    a true edge to the bettor. The discipline should be in the
    selectivity of the props you wager on.
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alien-1:

    losing streaks hit EVERYONE..........I don't care who you are. the 2 for 10 or 1 for 8 losing streak hits EVERYONE no matter how good your capping skills are. 15 or 20 in a row is a rarity but does happen even to the best cappers. My point is losing streaks(BAD ONES) happen to us all.





    And I'm saying that the chances of encountering a losing
    streak of that magnitude is dramatically reduced by solid
    handicapping skills , and wagering on props that provide
    a true edge to the bettor. The discipline should be in the
    selectivity of the props you wager on.
     
    Alien-1
    Alien-1
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 1:58 AM ET #52

    Quote Originally Posted by Wink71:

    The one thing that has made me a lot more successful is accepting the losing streak and not getting emotional about it and knowing the winning streak is right around the corner. Accepting the losing and not letting it get to me lets me keep my focus. 

    EXCELLENT point Wink !!

    You read my mind because it brings me to my next point.

    The worst thing you can do after a REAL BAD losing streak is to stop completely. The "return to mean" is right around the corner. You've endured all the loses......you must realize that now the wins are coming. It's called the law of averages. If you are betting reasonable amounts of 1% to 5% you WILL BE ABLE to endure the losing streak until normalcy arrives. 

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wink71:

    The one thing that has made me a lot more successful is accepting the losing streak and not getting emotional about it and knowing the winning streak is right around the corner. Accepting the losing and not letting it get to me lets me keep my focus. 

    EXCELLENT point Wink !!

    You read my mind because it brings me to my next point.

    The worst thing you can do after a REAL BAD losing streak is to stop completely. The "return to mean" is right around the corner. You've endured all the loses......you must realize that now the wins are coming. It's called the law of averages. If you are betting reasonable amounts of 1% to 5% you WILL BE ABLE to endure the losing streak until normalcy arrives. 

     

     
    Alien-1
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 2:02 AM ET #53

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





    And I'm saying that the chances of encountering a losing
    streak of that magnitude is dramatically reduced by solid
    handicapping skills , and wagering on props that provide
    a true edge to the bettor. The discipline should be in the
    selectivity of the props you wager on.

    Youre right Wiseguy !!

    You sound very knowledgeable and I'm sure you have done very well for yourself over the years 

    Unlike you.....most of the posters on here lose everything on a regular basis I'm sure, because they have no experience with money mgt 

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    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





    And I'm saying that the chances of encountering a losing
    streak of that magnitude is dramatically reduced by solid
    handicapping skills , and wagering on props that provide
    a true edge to the bettor. The discipline should be in the
    selectivity of the props you wager on.

    Youre right Wiseguy !!

    You sound very knowledgeable and I'm sure you have done very well for yourself over the years 

    Unlike you.....most of the posters on here lose everything on a regular basis I'm sure, because they have no experience with money mgt 

     
    Black_Ice
    Black_Ice
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 2:12 AM ET #54

    The basic psychological and physiological reaction to losing:

    Boiled down to its absolute essence, losing hurts! Not in an abstract way, but in a very real way. It makes your stomach churn, changes your blood pressure, constricts thousands of muscles and causes physical and mental anguish. Throw emotion on top of that and you have The Psychology of Losing. It’s real, we’ve all felt it, and it’s no fun.

    So what?

    So this… when humans experience pain and discomfort we want to make it GO AWAY!! How do we do that? You’re sitting in front of the computer so you click into another game as fast as possible. The best way to make the pain of losing go away is to WIN!! And you want to win as quickly as possible. Your body wants to feel better. Your mind wants to prove its worth. Your ego wants to regain its self-respect. And maybe, you’re loses are causing a financial pressure.

    A recipe for disaster

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    The basic psychological and physiological reaction to losing:

    Boiled down to its absolute essence, losing hurts! Not in an abstract way, but in a very real way. It makes your stomach churn, changes your blood pressure, constricts thousands of muscles and causes physical and mental anguish. Throw emotion on top of that and you have The Psychology of Losing. It’s real, we’ve all felt it, and it’s no fun.

    So what?

    So this… when humans experience pain and discomfort we want to make it GO AWAY!! How do we do that? You’re sitting in front of the computer so you click into another game as fast as possible. The best way to make the pain of losing go away is to WIN!! And you want to win as quickly as possible. Your body wants to feel better. Your mind wants to prove its worth. Your ego wants to regain its self-respect. And maybe, you’re loses are causing a financial pressure.

    A recipe for disaster

     
    Alien-1
    Alien-1
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 2:19 AM ET #55

    Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

    New nominee for thread of the year

    Great work. 100% true. 

    Thx for posting. We should all be here to help each other out to not only "pick winners" but to stay in the game and hopefully turn a profit.  

    (so I take it that chasing with teasers is a bad idea?)

     

    yeah bad idea

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    Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:

    New nominee for thread of the year

    Great work. 100% true. 

    Thx for posting. We should all be here to help each other out to not only "pick winners" but to stay in the game and hopefully turn a profit.  

    (so I take it that chasing with teasers is a bad idea?)

     

    yeah bad idea

     
    Alien-1
    Alien-1
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 2:22 AM ET #56

    Quote Originally Posted by Black_Ice:

    The basic psychological and physiological reaction to losing:

    Boiled down to its absolute essence, losing hurts! Not in an abstract way, but in a very real way. It makes your stomach churn, changes your blood pressure, constricts thousands of muscles and causes physical and mental anguish. Throw emotion on top of that and you have The Psychology of Losing. It’s real, we’ve all felt it, and it’s no fun.

    So what?

    So this… when humans experience pain and discomfort we want to make it GO AWAY!! How do we do that? You’re sitting in front of the computer so you click into another game as fast as possible. The best way to make the pain of losing go away is to WIN!! And you want to win as quickly as possible. Your body wants to feel better. Your mind wants to prove its worth. Your ego wants to regain its self-respect. And maybe, you’re loses are causing a financial pressure.

    A recipe for disaster

    Couldn't have said it better myself Black ice

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    Quote Originally Posted by Black_Ice:

    The basic psychological and physiological reaction to losing:

    Boiled down to its absolute essence, losing hurts! Not in an abstract way, but in a very real way. It makes your stomach churn, changes your blood pressure, constricts thousands of muscles and causes physical and mental anguish. Throw emotion on top of that and you have The Psychology of Losing. It’s real, we’ve all felt it, and it’s no fun.

    So what?

    So this… when humans experience pain and discomfort we want to make it GO AWAY!! How do we do that? You’re sitting in front of the computer so you click into another game as fast as possible. The best way to make the pain of losing go away is to WIN!! And you want to win as quickly as possible. Your body wants to feel better. Your mind wants to prove its worth. Your ego wants to regain its self-respect. And maybe, you’re loses are causing a financial pressure.

    A recipe for disaster

    Couldn't have said it better myself Black ice

     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
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    Posts: 34171
    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 2:23 AM ET #57

    Quote Originally Posted by Alien-1:

    Youre right Wiseguy !!

    You sound very knowledgeable and I'm sure you have done very well for yourself over the years 

    Unlike you.....most of the posters on here lose everything on a regular basis I'm sure, because they have no experience with money mgt 




    I totally agree with that. Money management ,or lack of it
    will definitely lead most to ruin. Unfortunately these are
    the same individuals that choose to bet just about every
    game on the board. We are saying the same thing in
    essence. Lack of discipline leads to ' Gamblers Ruin
    whether it is money management or the inability to
    properly analyze and evaluate props suitable for
    placing the odds for success in their favor.
    This is good stuff and I hope bettors who are tired of
    losing will heed the advice offered here and strive to
    improve their level of success.
    It starts with the acknowledgement that one needs to
    improve to be successful.
    Best of Luck to all finding success in sports betting.


    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alien-1:

    Youre right Wiseguy !!

    You sound very knowledgeable and I'm sure you have done very well for yourself over the years 

    Unlike you.....most of the posters on here lose everything on a regular basis I'm sure, because they have no experience with money mgt 




    I totally agree with that. Money management ,or lack of it
    will definitely lead most to ruin. Unfortunately these are
    the same individuals that choose to bet just about every
    game on the board. We are saying the same thing in
    essence. Lack of discipline leads to ' Gamblers Ruin
    whether it is money management or the inability to
    properly analyze and evaluate props suitable for
    placing the odds for success in their favor.
    This is good stuff and I hope bettors who are tired of
    losing will heed the advice offered here and strive to
    improve their level of success.
    It starts with the acknowledgement that one needs to
    improve to be successful.
    Best of Luck to all finding success in sports betting.


     
    warcameagle56
    warcameagle56
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    Joined: Dec, 2011
    Posts: 5418
    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 2:28 AM ET #58

    I've have certainly learned the hard way in this industry..Whenever anyone screams LOCK I just laugh to myself or at the guy that goes 4-0 one night and thinks he is the master capper.Protect your bankroll just like u said...for me it's a full time job at times to win consistently..I will tail someone ,but I usually at the most put 1% at the most on their picks..usually half that .Im really starting to like in game wagering with the exception to high juice Times.
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    I've have certainly learned the hard way in this industry..Whenever anyone screams LOCK I just laugh to myself or at the guy that goes 4-0 one night and thinks he is the master capper.Protect your bankroll just like u said...for me it's a full time job at times to win consistently..I will tail someone ,but I usually at the most put 1% at the most on their picks..usually half that .Im really starting to like in game wagering with the exception to high juice Times.
     
    Alien-1
    Alien-1
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    Joined: Dec, 2008
    Posts: 5043
    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 2:56 AM ET #59

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:




    I totally agree with that. Money management ,or lack of it
    will definitely lead most to ruin. Unfortunately these are
    the same individuals that choose to bet just about every
    game on the board. We are saying the same thing in
    essence. Lack of discipline leads to ' Gamblers Ruin
    whether it is money management or the inability to
    properly analyze and evaluate props suitable for
    placing the odds for success in their favor.
    This is good stuff and I hope bettors who are tired of
    losing will heed the advice offered here and strive to
    improve their level of success.
    It starts with the acknowledgement that one needs to
    improve to be successful.
    Best of Luck to all finding success in sports betting.


    well said !!

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    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:




    I totally agree with that. Money management ,or lack of it
    will definitely lead most to ruin. Unfortunately these are
    the same individuals that choose to bet just about every
    game on the board. We are saying the same thing in
    essence. Lack of discipline leads to ' Gamblers Ruin
    whether it is money management or the inability to
    properly analyze and evaluate props suitable for
    placing the odds for success in their favor.
    This is good stuff and I hope bettors who are tired of
    losing will heed the advice offered here and strive to
    improve their level of success.
    It starts with the acknowledgement that one needs to
    improve to be successful.
    Best of Luck to all finding success in sports betting.


    well said !!

     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
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    Joined: Jul, 2012
    Posts: 34171
    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 2:56 AM ET #60

    Alien, Nicely done , trying to educate the forum and help
    their chances for success. I know that cappers like JDN
    and myself have tried to bring this important topic to the
    forum in the past , and were mostly ignored.
    I hope this will open the eyes of those who truly want to
    be successful and more threads spring up to help those
    seeking to improve their handicapping skills.

    P. S. I use the Kelly Criterion for my money management
    strategy.

    Keep up the good work 
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Alien, Nicely done , trying to educate the forum and help
    their chances for success. I know that cappers like JDN
    and myself have tried to bring this important topic to the
    forum in the past , and were mostly ignored.
    I hope this will open the eyes of those who truly want to
    be successful and more threads spring up to help those
    seeking to improve their handicapping skills.

    P. S. I use the Kelly Criterion for my money management
    strategy.

    Keep up the good work 
     
    Alien-1
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 3:19 AM ET #61

    A very wise man said this to me when I was just a teenager starting out years ago.....I never forgot it:

    He said "the first sign of intelligence is to realize your own ignorance" Very very wise words.......realize that you do not have the answer and strive to find it. How does this pertain to sports betting you ask? Simple.........most bettors are very ignorant when it comes to money mgt. In fact they don't even know what it means really. They ignore it and can't figure why they never profit. They keep telling themselves  the reason why bettors are successful is because they pick more winners.....................Then they say, well I can pick winners just as good as the next guy. What they don't realize is that "the next guy" is managing his money in a very serious way and that is the reason he's successful. 

    I've said this MANY MANY times before:

    Picking winners is really not that difficult(it's not the secret here)..............many people have a gift for it. The secret is...VERY few of them can seriously manage a bankroll long term and turn a profit. 

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    A very wise man said this to me when I was just a teenager starting out years ago.....I never forgot it:

    He said "the first sign of intelligence is to realize your own ignorance" Very very wise words.......realize that you do not have the answer and strive to find it. How does this pertain to sports betting you ask? Simple.........most bettors are very ignorant when it comes to money mgt. In fact they don't even know what it means really. They ignore it and can't figure why they never profit. They keep telling themselves  the reason why bettors are successful is because they pick more winners.....................Then they say, well I can pick winners just as good as the next guy. What they don't realize is that "the next guy" is managing his money in a very serious way and that is the reason he's successful. 

    I've said this MANY MANY times before:

    Picking winners is really not that difficult(it's not the secret here)..............many people have a gift for it. The secret is...VERY few of them can seriously manage a bankroll long term and turn a profit. 

     
    Alien-1
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 3:22 AM ET #62

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Alien, Nicely done , trying to educate the forum and help
    their chances for success. I know that cappers like JDN
    and myself have tried to bring this important topic to the
    forum in the past , and were mostly ignored.
    I hope this will open the eyes of those who truly want to
    be successful and more threads spring up to help those
    seeking to improve their handicapping skills.

    P. S. I use the Kelly Criterion for my money management
    strategy.

    Keep up the good work 

    Thanks man

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    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:

    Alien, Nicely done , trying to educate the forum and help
    their chances for success. I know that cappers like JDN
    and myself have tried to bring this important topic to the
    forum in the past , and were mostly ignored.
    I hope this will open the eyes of those who truly want to
    be successful and more threads spring up to help those
    seeking to improve their handicapping skills.

    P. S. I use the Kelly Criterion for my money management
    strategy.

    Keep up the good work 

    Thanks man

     
    ATLGettinPaper
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 4:28 AM ET #63

    Quote Originally Posted by Black_Ice:

    yup yup I've done that !!  I cant count the number of times in my younger days I turned a few hundred into ten grand in a couple of months only to give it all back in a single day or two.


    Mannnn  ain't that the truth.  Just a few years ago, I turned 100 bucks into 5G's.  Just to piss 2G's of it away on some game that was being played in the middle of the night in Hawaii.  No access to watching the game, only thing I had to go on was game tracker and even that sucked for this game and some fuzzy radio feed from this piece of shittt site.  And of course I lost the bet.  I still remember the bet it was Central Michigan vs. Sam Houston St. or some shittt.  I got over confident, cause I was killin it.  I thought I was Billy Walters or some shitttt, ha ha.

    Who bets 2G's on a game that is played at 2am?  So fuckinnn dumb.  All that hard work I put into turning a little into a lot, just to piss it all back like that.  After I lost that 2G's my confidence was shot.  And lost the most of the rest I had.  That experience will not allow me to let that happen again.  Never again...  Money Management is key.

    When you bet too much on 1 single game, where it will just kill your confidence and bankroll if you lose it, means you've gone too far.  You should be able to bet a game, and enjoy the game and enjoy your bet.  And i promise you, if you bet within your means you'll learn what you did wrong and why you lost certain bets.  And next time you can kill it.  If your a good sports gambler, the more you bet the smarter you should become on what bets are good bets and what bets are not good bets.  But if you keep killing your bankroll and having to reload, you're betting too much and your not allowing yourself to learn from losses because your too caught up in these "HUGE" bets that your making.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Black_Ice:

    yup yup I've done that !!  I cant count the number of times in my younger days I turned a few hundred into ten grand in a couple of months only to give it all back in a single day or two.


    Mannnn  ain't that the truth.  Just a few years ago, I turned 100 bucks into 5G's.  Just to piss 2G's of it away on some game that was being played in the middle of the night in Hawaii.  No access to watching the game, only thing I had to go on was game tracker and even that sucked for this game and some fuzzy radio feed from this piece of shittt site.  And of course I lost the bet.  I still remember the bet it was Central Michigan vs. Sam Houston St. or some shittt.  I got over confident, cause I was killin it.  I thought I was Billy Walters or some shitttt, ha ha.

    Who bets 2G's on a game that is played at 2am?  So fuckinnn dumb.  All that hard work I put into turning a little into a lot, just to piss it all back like that.  After I lost that 2G's my confidence was shot.  And lost the most of the rest I had.  That experience will not allow me to let that happen again.  Never again...  Money Management is key.

    When you bet too much on 1 single game, where it will just kill your confidence and bankroll if you lose it, means you've gone too far.  You should be able to bet a game, and enjoy the game and enjoy your bet.  And i promise you, if you bet within your means you'll learn what you did wrong and why you lost certain bets.  And next time you can kill it.  If your a good sports gambler, the more you bet the smarter you should become on what bets are good bets and what bets are not good bets.  But if you keep killing your bankroll and having to reload, you're betting too much and your not allowing yourself to learn from losses because your too caught up in these "HUGE" bets that your making.
     
    dilaudid8
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 9:05 AM ET #64

    90 percent your being very kind it's like 99 percent or real high 90s that do lose. but your right I keep saying this but every game should be bet the same amount there is not 1 game that's a better bet then the next you might think so but you would be wrong. bet the same amount on each game 
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    90 percent your being very kind it's like 99 percent or real high 90s that do lose. but your right I keep saying this but every game should be bet the same amount there is not 1 game that's a better bet then the next you might think so but you would be wrong. bet the same amount on each game 
     
    Beechernic
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 9:16 AM ET #65

    This is a fantastic thread!!!    and your timing - spot on.

    Part of me thinks you will only help 3 of the 50,000 losing posters on this site, but your like a teacher - "Just help one student, and your a success"

    what is it about human nature that thinks its ok to be 5 games this week at $25 (go 5-0) and then bet $100 next week (going 0-5).  Its especially prominent now with the Generation of Entitlement starting to get their own money, and playing like mom/dad will always bail them out.

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    This is a fantastic thread!!!    and your timing - spot on.

    Part of me thinks you will only help 3 of the 50,000 losing posters on this site, but your like a teacher - "Just help one student, and your a success"

    what is it about human nature that thinks its ok to be 5 games this week at $25 (go 5-0) and then bet $100 next week (going 0-5).  Its especially prominent now with the Generation of Entitlement starting to get their own money, and playing like mom/dad will always bail them out.

     
    Beechernic
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 9:24 AM ET #66

    The ebbs and flows of wagering only ever get highlighted when you start writing every wager down in a book/journal.   When I look back at this (VERY FORTUNATE) season, I can see the following:

    Weeks 3 & 4 - 60%.       Week 5 - 40%.    Week 6 - 80%.    Week 7 - 100%,     Week 8 - 33%.     Etc.....

    But staying the course at $25-30 a game keeps me above board.  How easy would it be to let my hair down and bet $100-200 a game in week 8??????   EASY!!!!, (after weeks 6-7, ha)  but, wow, 7 weeks of investing in my tv, the internet, team pages, etc... would have been gone!!!

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    The ebbs and flows of wagering only ever get highlighted when you start writing every wager down in a book/journal.   When I look back at this (VERY FORTUNATE) season, I can see the following:

    Weeks 3 & 4 - 60%.       Week 5 - 40%.    Week 6 - 80%.    Week 7 - 100%,     Week 8 - 33%.     Etc.....

    But staying the course at $25-30 a game keeps me above board.  How easy would it be to let my hair down and bet $100-200 a game in week 8??????   EASY!!!!, (after weeks 6-7, ha)  but, wow, 7 weeks of investing in my tv, the internet, team pages, etc... would have been gone!!!

     
    thorpe
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 9:25 AM ET #67

    Quote Originally Posted by Alien-1:


    The worst thing you can do after a REAL BAD losing streak is to stop completely. The "return to mean" is right around the corner. You've endured all the loses......you must realize that now the wins are coming. It's called the law of averages. 




    This is the gamblers fallacy.  Just because you lost 10 in a row, doesn't mean you are "due" for a win.  Stick to your money management advice.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alien-1:


    The worst thing you can do after a REAL BAD losing streak is to stop completely. The "return to mean" is right around the corner. You've endured all the loses......you must realize that now the wins are coming. It's called the law of averages. 




    This is the gamblers fallacy.  Just because you lost 10 in a row, doesn't mean you are "due" for a win.  Stick to your money management advice.
     
    whisperman
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 9:52 AM ET #68

    The key variables in successful sports betting are..The size of bankroll..the season ending profit goal..the number of selections and then a realistic estimate of win proficiency.

    Betting 10 games per week at 1100 a pop will earn 27,200 over course of a 17 game nfl season if you win 60 percent of your plays. by contrast, betting three games per week at 1100 each will earn 15,300 over a full season hitting 67% winners.

    60 percent over a full nfl season is attainable but very optimistic for even the best cappers. 67 percent is virtually impossible over extended years.

    My point being..even if you are a consistent 60 percent capper you will have to bet at least 10 games a week at 1100 a game just to make a very modest living..this of course being over an nfl season only

    Great thread by the way..hopefully will get people thinking about what is really important in making long term profits for fun or real profit..
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    The key variables in successful sports betting are..The size of bankroll..the season ending profit goal..the number of selections and then a realistic estimate of win proficiency.

    Betting 10 games per week at 1100 a pop will earn 27,200 over course of a 17 game nfl season if you win 60 percent of your plays. by contrast, betting three games per week at 1100 each will earn 15,300 over a full season hitting 67% winners.

    60 percent over a full nfl season is attainable but very optimistic for even the best cappers. 67 percent is virtually impossible over extended years.

    My point being..even if you are a consistent 60 percent capper you will have to bet at least 10 games a week at 1100 a game just to make a very modest living..this of course being over an nfl season only

    Great thread by the way..hopefully will get people thinking about what is really important in making long term profits for fun or real profit..
     
    Alien-1
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 11:14 AM ET #69

    Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:




    This is the gamblers fallacy.  Just because you lost 10 in a row, doesn't mean you are "due" for a win.  Stick to your money management advice.

    You are 100% correct.

     However, there is a much greater possibility that you will encounter wins after enduring a lengthy losing streak. It's the law of averages. If youre making sound decisions and capping like you've always done(youre doing everything the same as when you were on a winning streak)your luck will eventually turn. It's the law of the universe......it can't be denied.

    The trick is..... realize you're ON a losing streak and  really minimize your bet amounts until you strart clicking again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thorpe:




    This is the gamblers fallacy.  Just because you lost 10 in a row, doesn't mean you are "due" for a win.  Stick to your money management advice.

    You are 100% correct.

     However, there is a much greater possibility that you will encounter wins after enduring a lengthy losing streak. It's the law of averages. If youre making sound decisions and capping like you've always done(youre doing everything the same as when you were on a winning streak)your luck will eventually turn. It's the law of the universe......it can't be denied.

    The trick is..... realize you're ON a losing streak and  really minimize your bet amounts until you strart clicking again.

     
    mserenil
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 11:24 AM ET #70

    Alien-1! Wow almost everything I've read today on your post has happened to me. I've been at this for about five years now and over all I cant really complain. when I loose my bankroll I'm usually done for the season or for the year. My buddy convinced me and told me to quit betting so much on every game. So this year I've toned it down to betting $50 a game instead of $100 a game and I'm having my best year yet. Discipline like you said has been the key and I realize that now. My question is how do you begin to sharpen your handicapping skills? And can you add me to your friends list? Oh! and thanks for the good advice.   

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    Alien-1! Wow almost everything I've read today on your post has happened to me. I've been at this for about five years now and over all I cant really complain. when I loose my bankroll I'm usually done for the season or for the year. My buddy convinced me and told me to quit betting so much on every game. So this year I've toned it down to betting $50 a game instead of $100 a game and I'm having my best year yet. Discipline like you said has been the key and I realize that now. My question is how do you begin to sharpen your handicapping skills? And can you add me to your friends list? Oh! and thanks for the good advice.   

     
    Alien-1
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 11:27 AM ET #71

    To follow up on the above post........there is nothing wrong with taking a breather during a slump. In fact I encourage it. A few days or a week...whatever you think. But to stop all together would be silly because you need to keep playing in order for the law of averages to kick in. I don't want to get too technical with math here but.....you need to lower your variance.
    Playing a lot of games will lower your variance......playing a few will raise it.
     
    I could start another whole thread on the topic of variance because it is not understood by most sports bettors.....it's a little hard to grasp for them
     
    I will talk more about it later.
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    To follow up on the above post........there is nothing wrong with taking a breather during a slump. In fact I encourage it. A few days or a week...whatever you think. But to stop all together would be silly because you need to keep playing in order for the law of averages to kick in. I don't want to get too technical with math here but.....you need to lower your variance.
    Playing a lot of games will lower your variance......playing a few will raise it.
     
    I could start another whole thread on the topic of variance because it is not understood by most sports bettors.....it's a little hard to grasp for them
     
    I will talk more about it later.
     
    Howell83
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 11:40 AM ET #72

    I agree with this, being a newbie to the site and only gambling on games for the past couple of years, mainly thru a local bookie, I have realized that it is A LOT easier to bet more money on games thru an internet booking site. Would I have thrown down $200 on SDSU vs Hawaii ML last week if the cash was in my hand....Most probably not. But with it just being a number on the screen and a mouse click away, its a lot easier to make larger bets online than in person, my opinion anyway. I had to teach myself that. Still catch myself doing it, but not as bad as it was. Great post, money management is the key to making $ here, we are all on the same team with that.

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    I agree with this, being a newbie to the site and only gambling on games for the past couple of years, mainly thru a local bookie, I have realized that it is A LOT easier to bet more money on games thru an internet booking site. Would I have thrown down $200 on SDSU vs Hawaii ML last week if the cash was in my hand....Most probably not. But with it just being a number on the screen and a mouse click away, its a lot easier to make larger bets online than in person, my opinion anyway. I had to teach myself that. Still catch myself doing it, but not as bad as it was. Great post, money management is the key to making $ here, we are all on the same team with that.

     
    Alien-1
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 11:41 AM ET #73

    Quote Originally Posted by dilaudid8:

    90 percent your being very kind it's like 99 percent or real high 90s that do lose. but your right I keep saying this but every game should be bet the same amount there is not 1 game that's a better bet then the next you might think so but you would be wrong. bet the same amount on each game 

    You' re right !!

    I AM being a little generous here.......the actual number is hard to determine. But from all accounts it is estimated to be more like 92% of all sports bettors do not turn a profit. I have read that many books claim 99%. I find that too high. Others have said 95%. 90% seems right to me. Know one will ever know the exact percentage.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dilaudid8:

    90 percent your being very kind it's like 99 percent or real high 90s that do lose. but your right I keep saying this but every game should be bet the same amount there is not 1 game that's a better bet then the next you might think so but you would be wrong. bet the same amount on each game 

    You' re right !!

    I AM being a little generous here.......the actual number is hard to determine. But from all accounts it is estimated to be more like 92% of all sports bettors do not turn a profit. I have read that many books claim 99%. I find that too high. Others have said 95%. 90% seems right to me. Know one will ever know the exact percentage.

     
    Alien-1
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 12:09 PM ET #74

    Quote Originally Posted by mserenil:

    Alien-1! Wow almost everything I've read today on your post has happened to me. I've been at this for about five years now and over all I cant really complain. when I loose my bankroll I'm usually done for the season or for the year. My buddy convinced me and told me to quit betting so much on every game. So this year I've toned it down to betting $50 a game instead of $100 a game and I'm having my best year yet. Discipline like you said has been the key and I realize that now. My question is how do you begin to sharpen your handicapping skills? And can you add me to your friends list? Oh! and thanks for the good advice.   

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    Quote Originally Posted by mserenil:

    Alien-1! Wow almost everything I've read today on your post has happened to me. I've been at this for about five years now and over all I cant really complain. when I loose my bankroll I'm usually done for the season or for the year. My buddy convinced me and told me to quit betting so much on every game. So this year I've toned it down to betting $50 a game instead of $100 a game and I'm having my best year yet. Discipline like you said has been the key and I realize that now. My question is how do you begin to sharpen your handicapping skills? And can you add me to your friends list? Oh! and thanks for the good advice.   

     
     
    Alien-1
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    Posted: Nov. 21, 2013 - 12:14 PM ET #75

    Quote Originally Posted by mserenil:

    Alien-1! Wow almost everything I've read today on your post has happened to me. I've been at this for about five years now and over all I cant really complain. when I loose my bankroll I'm usually done for the season or for the year. My buddy convinced me and told me to quit betting so much on every game. So this year I've toned it down to betting $50 a game instead of $100 a game and I'm having my best year yet. Discipline like you said has been the key and I realize that now. My question is how do you begin to sharpen your handicapping skills? And can you add me to your friends list? Oh! and thanks for the good advice.   

    Great to hear you are having success mserenil !!

    To answer your question: Experience......it's the only way you'll sharpen your skills. There are no shortcuts.....NONE !!

    Sounds like you're doing fine................keep doing what your're doing !!

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    Quote Originally Posted by mserenil:

    Alien-1! Wow almost everything I've read today on your post has happened to me. I've been at this for about five years now and over all I cant really complain. when I loose my bankroll I'm usually done for the season or for the year. My buddy convinced me and told me to quit betting so much on every game. So this year I've toned it down to betting $50 a game instead of $100 a game and I'm having my best year yet. Discipline like you said has been the key and I realize that now. My question is how do you begin to sharpen your handicapping skills? And can you add me to your friends list? Oh! and thanks for the good advice.   

    Great to hear you are having success mserenil !!

    To answer your question: Experience......it's the only way you'll sharpen your skills. There are no shortcuts.....NONE !!

    Sounds like you're doing fine................keep doing what your're doing !!

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