Wednesdays Plays 1 BEST bet and 1 basic wager.

HI to ALL

I just woke up at 3:45 AM to "watch the Duke game" on the internet.

When I saw the picture of the mobbed floor, I knew what happened.

It didn't surprise me one bit, as you all know.

My BEST BETS are an interesting application of a creatinve method I am proud of.

This game satisfied both the Mean and median analysis and located a point disparity off 11.6 for the mean, and 13.0 for the median.

Both parameters were over 7 points thus it qualified as a BEST BET..

What my predicted score is = OPENING LINE +- POINT DISPARITY

For this game my "method predicted" a Florida St, win of 3.6 to 5 points.

It basically fell on my number, and it doesn't surprise me.

What IS IMPRESSIVE is after I checked  the whole game, it was another BEST BET WIRE TO WIRE WINNER.

Florida State was covering the spread EVERY second of the Game.

The Last 2 games posted have that characteresitc.

St. Johns:

My Mean and median projections were +- 7.1 and 5.25 POINTS +- the Spread of +2.5

Their result does NOT surprise me, besause they did not qualify under the Median (slightly more accurate) projections as having at least a 7 point disparity. Thus, they were not a BEST BET, just a play.

How I obtain these projections, is by using a combination of statistics, that are put into a regression type model specifically fitiing each individual team.

Every team has their own formala, which is constantly changing, as lineups and injuries and minutes and current form etc are changing.

What we are looking for are 2 teams that are going in OPPOSITE directions that qualify on average (mean) and on the midpoint (median). A 7 point disparity in both areas, and we just BET MAX.I  It's like counting cards with a true count of 40 (20 % edge +-)    

I will repeat my basic Premise for making this a BEST BET

DUKE IS OVERRATED and FLORIDA STATE IS UNDERRATED, and both teams are going in opposite directions and qualify under the parameters of my methods.

What the public and the linesmakers can not figure out is how predict future events or see an obvious downtrend in a team (like DUKE) when they are winning their games by 10-20 points. My method specifically locates this type of situation.

If anyone one this site didn't think that statement was true before the game, they do now. Duke:Ovrerated, F St.: Underrated

I wish to thank all of my supporters and congratulate everyone that wagered on FLorida State. You are all great people.

I wish to thank Sparty and Tbone for being the individuals that they are, becasue at least for yesterday, their infintile comments kept my blood flowing enough to stay awake and handicap every game on the board. This is also a testament to the linesmakers. In a full card, I could only come up with 1 MAX BET. Good job linesmakers.

I will take a peek at todays games shortly, but one last thing. The whole world thinks that Florida State won by 5. NOT ME

By my calculations, adjusting for each teams respective new formulas, I have Duke winning the game by 1.18 points!

All is never what you see and the puzzle continues.

Best of Luck to all,

Totally..............Shirley

Quote Originally Posted by cburk:


Great job Shirley, you really know your shit, you lost me at HI

Wish I could figure out some of your analysis!



Hi Sparty, where are you and your thugs at?

Thanks, I think I do, but let's not get too excited.

I have only located 1 game for Thursday, but am reluctant to post it because it has a success rate in the 60% range, although qualifying as a Best Bet. Seems like an anomoly to me.

I'll ponder what to do with this game. It's a game that is completely off of the radar screen, and will attract little or no interest.

Thanks for the support,

Totally.................Shirley