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Vegas vs Kenpom Week 7

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Prospect
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Posted: #51
QUOTE Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Official Monday Plays:

Wofford +5.5 (Road, Dog, Toward) 60% difference
Tennessee -13 (Home, Fave, Toward)  20% difference
Rider +11 (Road, Dog, Toward) 30% diff
St Peters +1.5 (Road, Dog, Toward) 75% diff
Idaho St +9 (Road, Dog, None) 
UCSB +2 (Road, Dog, None) 50%
CS North +5.5 (Road, Dog, Toward) 30%


 
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Posted: #52
Looking at 2nites plays we see that Kenpom thought Mich st should have been a 9pt dog and vegas has Wisc at 5.5, wisc likely would have been higher had they won the game b4.  Idnk but i have a hunch that on highly bet public games we can be sure of our system pic (mich st) because Vegas likely knows that the betting public will play the home favorite off a loss.
Do we have any opinions or data on games that Vegas and kenpom have differnt favs? Conn and SH? On that data SH Hit but Wisc MIlk didnt.
2days plays, Michst had a 3.5pt difference on a 5.5 line, so 65-70%
Uconn was 2 pt fav for a difference of 3, 
Oakland was a 3pt dog for a difference of 2, 66%
Ft Wanye 1.5 fav differeence of 3.5 70% hit.
so level 1 was 3 and 3
and level 2 was 4 and 0.. 
and level 3 was 1,0, 1 
that is for both nights.
 
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Posted: #53

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Official Tuesday Plays:

W.Mich +2.5 (Home, Fave, Toward)

Uconn -2.5 (Road, Fave, Away) 2.5 units

MSU +6.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)

IUPU FW -5 (Home, Fave, None)
Oakland +3 (Home, Dog, Toward)

Heres what I got for tomorrow. I ll put in ( ) what the open was incase I'm wrong. Its off Troe's Wednesday discussion thread which he posted the opening lines off where Beaver gets his.

 

 

 
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Posted: #54

Damn computer....

St. Joes (+1.5) +1 (Road, Dog, Toward)

Xavier (-2) -2.5 (Road, Fav, Away)

Notre Dame (+8.5) +8 (Road, Dog, None)

Iowa (+8) +8 (Road, Dog, None)

UCF (-5.5) -6 (Road, Dog, Away)

Tenn (+9.5) +8.5 (Road, Dog Away)

Northeastern (-5) -4.5 (Home, Fav, Toward)

LMK what I screwed up.

 

 
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Posted: #55

Forgot Texas....

Texas (-1) -4 (Away, Fav, None)

 

Didnt check the 65% thing, figured do that tomorrow.

 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:

I saw Uconn @ 66% earlier today. Should have been thrown out. I know it does no good now but I haven't been at a computer till now. Just mentioning that I saw it >65%


Damn, wish you could've posted that earlier...oh well
 
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Posted: #57
I think that Duquesne and Cinncinatti are the plays not St. Joe's and Notre Dame
 
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Posted: #58
YTD Record

For the night: 3-2 (60%)

For the week: 8-3 (73%)

For the year: 124-101 (55%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 53-51 (51%)
Road Teams: 52-34 (60%)

Favorites: 55-51 (52%)
Dogs:      69-50 (58%)

Line moved toward KP:  88-81 (52%)
Line moved away KP:  31-11 (74%)
 
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Posted: #59
Also Iowa St. not Texas.
 
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Posted: #60
Remember to wait for KP to update his site at night before finding the plays...they might be a little different after updates
 
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Posted: #61
Here's what I see right now for tomorrow:

Xavier -2 (Road, Fave, Away, Level 1)
Duquesne -1 (Home, Fave, Toward, Level 1)
Cincinnati -8.5 (Home, Fave, Toward, Level 2)
Tennessee +8.5 (Road, Dog, Away, Level 2) POD
Texas +1 (Road, Dog, Toward, Level 1)

As of now, Xavier is 73%, Duquesne 55%, Cincinnati 45%, Tennessee 50%, Texas N/A
 
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Posted: #62
Texas cannot be a play KP has them at -4. Iowa St. is the play
 
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Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by kkirby99:

Texas cannot be a play KP has them at -4. Iowa St. is the play

You're right. Goofed on that one.

Iowa St +1 (Home, Dog, Toward, Level 1)
 
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Posted: #64
Cinci -8
Duq -1
Tenn +8.5
Iowa St +1

will post official lines tomorrow, thanks guys
 
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Posted: #65
 
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Posted: #66

mr. beaver i love the fact you have been adjusting your system as uconn last night was predominatly a

public pick so as youve outlined it should be a no play i screwed up and forgot about that rule from beaver hence a loss for uconn

like today i see xavier becoming a public play = no play per beavers system

i would suggest in trying to assist beavers system just a small tweek the teaser aspect of the additional 6 points to  cincinatti -8 (vegas line) kp line ( -5)  vegas line memphis (8,5) kp line (memphis 13.5) so if we would try and incorporate the added(6 point teaser) to cincinatti and memphis are new actual betting line would be (cincinnatti -2 and tennesee +14.5)yesterday results on maryland _2 oakland +9 if people got the 3 i got 2.5  but with beavers system picks and the additional 6 points added to beavers system plays the teaser would not of lost but was a push  these are just a suggestions and i understand to verify if this is a winning edge it would have to be back tested on beavers system plays that lost by a number of less then 6 points beaver has his plate ful already and it would be helpful if he had an assistant that could verify  not every system pick just the ones that are the 80% system picks  the ultimate goal is perfecting beavers already profitable system and i do understand there is a higher( vig) on a teaser but if its winning % is high enough it may very well have its advantages

 
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Posted: #67

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Remember to wait for KP to update his site at night before finding the plays...they might be a little different after updates

I actually didnt realize they updated at night. Thats my fault.

 
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Posted: #68
any volunteers to be "the beavs" assistant!!???!!!  he has A good base for A system. You could play it only or incorpoerate  it into something you have all ready.  A system like this was used here (covers) last year, Beaver "twicked" it but it still is A good base. I used a verison during tourney time last year as well as so far this year"with A few devations" and it works well.    Keep it up beaver and good job to you and whoever wants to help
 
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Posted: #69
beavers system picks that are winning at a phenomenal 74% is the ones im refrencing too if we could back test the 11 losses 34 wins and see on the only 11 losses what the point margin was if it was less then 6 points that would make beavers system something that would compile a tremendous amount of money for all of us loyal backers to beavers system thats already better then anything the gambling world has ever seen and wouldnt it be great for all of us to simply wager one teaser pick daily utilizing beavers highest percentage system picks that if the results of the back testing needed to see if the winning percentage isnt way over 80% or maybe higher  i hope my little 2 cents worth has validity im not sure untill the results from the 11 losses are compiled to see if in fact its valid
 
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Posted: #70
Good idea Poolman. 
 
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Posted: #71
Official Wednesday Plays:

Cinci -8.5 (Home, Fave, None)
Duquesne -2 (Home, Fave, Away)
Tenn +7.5 (Road, Dog, Away)
Iowa St +2 (Home, Dog, Toward)
 
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Posted: #72

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Remember to wait for KP to update his site at night before finding the plays...they might be a little different after updates

KP ?where i can find KP? Please

 
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Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by tom-jerry:

KP ?where i can find KP? Please



KP = Ken Pom. He has the must-read website for college basketball betting. It used to be free, but now it's $20. Still a must have.

https://kenpom.com/blog/
 
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Posted: #74

it will be alot of work for beaver to back test results to calculate the point margin loss  of his system picks that were in the category of 74% if the additional 6points would change the winning percentage above 74%  with the increased( vig) factored in.  will it be beneficial?

 
 
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Posted: #75
https://kenpom.com/                  tom-jerry.this is the site.  I beleive last season we used........ here @(covers) ......... this power rating. Beaver is using a 'fan match" rating on a this site slightly different, and that one is at a $$cost$$.  $19.95 I beleive. GL
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