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Vegas vs KenPom Week 1

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Posted: #1
Over the first 2 weeks of the season I have been tracking this system in a different thread.  It won at a rate of 64%.  Now I will start to invest in the system and hope the winners continue.

One note:  I will not be wagering on the teams that have over 65% of the bets according to covers contests.  I will post them, but they will have (pf) next to them.


The basis is simple.  If there is a "large" difference between the opening line and the fanmatch line on kenpom.com, I will side with Vegas.

System rules:

If the line is between 0 and 4, a large difference is 2 points.
4.5 to 12, a large difference is 3 points.
12.5 to 16, a large difference is 4 points.
16.5 and up, a large difference is 5 points.
 
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Posted: #2
Here we go!

Monday plays:
Virginia -8
FIU -7.5 (pf) NO PLAY for me
Fresno St. -4 (pf) No play
BC -1
St. Bonn -5
Wright St. +21
Mercer -10
SMU +11




 
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Posted: #3
Every system I know always crumbles when a team decides not to show up. When you see the waterboy, and team doctor in the starting line up, it's gonna turn out real ugly. I'll take 64% over 0 any day bro.

Good
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by Upward_Drift:

Every system I know always crumbles when a team decides not to show up. When you see the waterboy, and team doctor in the starting line up, it's gonna turn out real ugly. I'll take 64% over 0 any day bro.

Good


Not exactly sure what you mean, but thanks?
 
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Posted: #5
...lets pound this...daddy needs to bring home a BIG turkey for Thanks Giving...
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by Upward_Drift:

Every system I know always crumbles when a team decides not to show up. When you see the waterboy, and team doctor in the starting line up, it's gonna turn out real ugly. I'll take 64% over 0 any day bro.

Good

Can you post your plays so I can FADE you all day long??

This might have just taken over as the DUMBEST post I have ever read....

 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by beatthelocal:


Can you post your plays so I can FADE you all day long??

This might have just taken over as the DUMBEST post I have ever read....


agree and still not really sure what it means
 
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Posted: #8
BC at +4.5 now
 
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Posted: #9
Good thing VA can shoot free throws.  I got a push, most people on VA got the win
 
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Posted: #10
Monday plays:
Virginia -8 Push
FIU -7.5 (pf) NO PLAY for me L
Fresno St. -4 (pf) No play L
BC -1 L (Kind of expected this with the huge steam this afternoon)
St. Bonn -5 W
Wright St. +21 W
Mercer -10 W
SMU +11 ???

3-1-1 with SMU remaining.  Off to a good start

 
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Posted: #11
Keep it up.
 
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Posted: #12
SMU came back to cover. 4-1-1 to start the system.  Tuesday plays coming soon
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by beatthelocal:


Can you post your plays so I can FADE you all day long??

This might have just taken over as the DUMBEST post I have ever read....



Ya I can see how it didn't make so much sense. Let me elaborate.

"When a team decides not to show up" - Basically a system is not gonna tell you when a team is on an emotional slide/overlooking the team in front of them to get ready for the next match up. (example= you could say in NCAAF that Oklahoma overlooked Iowa State, in preparation to play Oklahoma State.) System would have said OK would walk IWST. Hence it didn't happen OK lost.

"When you see the waterboy, and team doctor in the starting line up" - Sorry, THAT was a joke meaning that they might as well have had the waterboy, and doctor on the court, they way a team badly plays sometimes.

"I'll take 64% over 0 anyday bro" -  I was just saying that HEY your system gets you 64% I'll ride it with ya, and see what happens. 0 is just not doing anything and guessing.

So ya, sorry it made no sense.


F.Y.I-  beatthelocal. I post my plays. "Teasing Points" look there to fade me.

P.S. Sorry for the misunderstandings. Keep up the good work Beaverfan
 
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Posted: #14
Makes more sense now, thanks mate!
 
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Posted: #15
Tuesday Plays:

Delaware -4.5
ECU +2.5
Illinois -5.5

There may be a couple more...have to wait for lines in the morning
 
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Posted: #16
What about rutgers @ -5
 
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Posted: #17
Isnt Illinois a PF?
 
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Posted: #18
No Rutgers because at -5 the difference needs  to be at least 3 points.

Looks like Illinois is hovering right around the 65% mark.  I see it at 64% right now, i'm going to go ahead and play it.

Still waiting on lines for those tournament games
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

No Rutgers because at -5 the difference needs  to be at least 3 points.

Looks like Illinois is hovering right around the 65% mark.  I see it at 64% right now, i'm going to go ahead and play it.

Still waiting on lines for those tournament games
yea it keeps fluctuating ,got ya Beav.
 
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Posted: #20
this system will work early but once my buddy, ken has enough data on the season, it won't. 

also, implementing this same strategy against sagarin has worked early as well. 
 
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Posted: #21
Tenn +2.5
SMU -13
FIU +12.5
CSU -14.5
UCLA +8.5

 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by ZonaCats:

this system will work early but once my buddy, ken has enough data on the season, it won't. 

also, implementing this same strategy against sagarin has worked early as well. 


I used it during conference play last year and it was profitable....we'll just have to wait and see
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Tenn +2.5
SMU -13
FIU +12.5
CSU -14.5
UCLA +8.5

are these the plays now updated?
 
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Posted: #24

would like to know tenn looks interesting

 
 
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Posted: #25
Tuesday plays include both posts:

Tenn +2.5
SMU -13
FIU +12.5
CSU -14.5
UCLA +8.5
Delaware -4.5
ECU +2.5
Illinois -5.5

Hope Tenn can pull this out
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