North Carolina v. Florida State, Tallahassee, Florida, 7 et.
Posted Plays: 2-1 (66%)
Opening Line: FSU -1/143 Current UNC -1/143
Analysis: UNC comes into this game very hot, having won and covered in six consecutive games. Recently, they just beat Notre Dame on the road as 1.5 point favs and then also at home against Pitt has 3 point favs. FSU on the other hand has really been struggling losing two out of there last three and only covering in a win at Wake Forest, while losing to Miami and Maryland. However, I do believe that FSU holds some value tonight against UNC. You do not always get each team’s best game every time out, and tonight I believe you see a very average UNC team. As far as spots go, I believe FSU holds some value tonight. Here are the reasons why:
1. Sandwich game for UNC. After a big win at home against Pitt in a very hard fought physical game, you go to FSU, and then have Duke at home on deck. Something tells me UNC might be thinking about their biggest rivals more than FSU. Also UNC already had to game plan for Duke because the game was supposed to be played last week and got cancelled. Are they thinking about FSU tonight or Duke? I am guessing Duke, and there might be some emotional let down from the win against Pitt.
2. Roy Williams. He continues to underachieve with as much talent as anyone in the country. I think a lot of getting up for games or being ready to play has to do with the coach. I just cannot trust him here. Ex. UNC already having losses to Belmont, UAB, and Wake. Roy finds to lose to superior teams, and I do not even believe that FSU is that inferior.
3. Matchups. UNC has to get as close to the hoop as possible to score. The only real threat they have on their team from outside is Page. No one else on the team shoots it above 30%, and really he is the only one that really looks for his outside. UNC will beat you by second chance points and driving in the lane. FSU is an absolutely huge team, tall as hell. UNC is going to have a tough time scoring over them down low, and offensive rebounding against them. Sometimes tells me that UNC offense looks pretty bad tonight because FSU can just pack it in. McAdoo and Johnson are beats, but FSU has got a 7’2 man and some big boys whose names I can never remember coming off the bench. So you got a team that is going to pound the ball inside against the 2nd best defense in the NCAA? Sign me up.
4. UNC defense. Roy Willaims isn’t a defensive minded coach. Look at previous seasons and this season, their defense is okay, but never great. This works out perfectly for a matchup against an FSU that struggles to score the basketball.
5. UNC free throw shooting. McAdoo and Johnson are bad from the line. A predicted close game here tonight and you are telling that two of the more important players from one team that are going to the line are going to miss. Ill take those free points.
6. Line -1? Really with UNC covering 6 in a row and looking pretty damn good doing it and FSU struggling in their last 6 games, the books came out with this short of a line. Covers has 66% of the public on UNC, and the books had to know that they would be a public darling here. Yet by creating such a short line here, I believe the books want UNC money here because it will end up being a lost.
7. FSU protects their home court. Over the years you have seen many times that Hamiliton team upset a Duke or UNC or another good team at home. He protects his home court with their defense.
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