I've said this many times before, but I hate early tip-offs for a few reasons. The entire routine is shaken, anything from meals to film studies to scouting reports to late nights the night before. Everything is different. Along with that, you generally get a smaller crowd, and it's tough to get the legs moving on the court. It's like taking a guy who has worked 3rd shift for a week, and making him work the 1st the next week. It will take it's toll. Anyways, with this early tip, I see a bit of value. Let's call it slow versus fast. Running short on time here, but let's take a look real quick. Last year, Siena played at Northeastern's average tempo in the following games in ten games last year. In those games, they won 8 out of the 10 but the average margin of victory was 6.8. If you throw out St. Peter's, which were two big wins and a horrible team, then you get an average margin of victory in those games against a snail's pace at 2.4. Pretty interesting. Now, Siena has a 21 game home winning streak, that is scary, but i'd almost guess that the crowd won't be as big as it usually is for the noon tip. On the flip side, Northeastern won 11 games on the road last year, surprising many until a late season collapse. With that collapse however, they still got their first post-season victory since the 1980's I believe. They also return 4 of their 5 starters, and have the guards to utilize Siena's full court pressure. They're balanced, and really are a mirror image of Siena, they just don't play the uptempo style of play. They're a defensive ballclub, with plenty of talent, and little depth. The depth could be part of the issue of last season's collapse down the stretch in league play. They'll be as fresh as they were at the beginning of last year when they looked great. To be honest, I took a look at this play BECAUSE of that collapse last year. This was a team that played good basketball for 80% of the season. They'll be hungry today. They match up incredibly well with size, and should be able to stay competitive in a morning tip. Tough place to play, but give me the experience and matchups, and the old school style of play in this one. If the game's played at night, I'd stay off the moneyline, but little bit more value being that this is an early one. Same as past years - I Won't track moneyline's on the record, just the spread plays. Wish I could spend more time on the write-up, as I think there is a big advantage at the PG slot as well. Janning and Ubiles pretty much cancel each other out unless Ubiles goes off, which I just can't see happening. One last thing, Northeastern is probably going to come out in a zone style play, Siena has a few shooters, but it's going to limit the slashing to the basket which Siena is known so well for, and the zone could be a good thing in a morning tip with a slow tempo in a hostile environment. I think Siena's streak is in jeopardy.
2* Northeastern +8.5 -102
1* Northeastern ML +340
Other Day Game Thoughts:
Hate Arkansas LR's offensive philosophy, which will not work against Tulsa's bigs. Have to watch Arkansas LR a few times this year to see if anything has changed from last year, but think they also got rid of a few players as well. Have no interest in Temple/Georgetown, don't think i've bet a Georgetown game in 2 years.
Back later with the night games, if I find any.
GL
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
1-0, +3.00
Northeastern at Siena
I've said this many times before, but I hate early tip-offs for a few reasons. The entire routine is shaken, anything from meals to film studies to scouting reports to late nights the night before. Everything is different. Along with that, you generally get a smaller crowd, and it's tough to get the legs moving on the court. It's like taking a guy who has worked 3rd shift for a week, and making him work the 1st the next week. It will take it's toll. Anyways, with this early tip, I see a bit of value. Let's call it slow versus fast. Running short on time here, but let's take a look real quick. Last year, Siena played at Northeastern's average tempo in the following games in ten games last year. In those games, they won 8 out of the 10 but the average margin of victory was 6.8. If you throw out St. Peter's, which were two big wins and a horrible team, then you get an average margin of victory in those games against a snail's pace at 2.4. Pretty interesting. Now, Siena has a 21 game home winning streak, that is scary, but i'd almost guess that the crowd won't be as big as it usually is for the noon tip. On the flip side, Northeastern won 11 games on the road last year, surprising many until a late season collapse. With that collapse however, they still got their first post-season victory since the 1980's I believe. They also return 4 of their 5 starters, and have the guards to utilize Siena's full court pressure. They're balanced, and really are a mirror image of Siena, they just don't play the uptempo style of play. They're a defensive ballclub, with plenty of talent, and little depth. The depth could be part of the issue of last season's collapse down the stretch in league play. They'll be as fresh as they were at the beginning of last year when they looked great. To be honest, I took a look at this play BECAUSE of that collapse last year. This was a team that played good basketball for 80% of the season. They'll be hungry today. They match up incredibly well with size, and should be able to stay competitive in a morning tip. Tough place to play, but give me the experience and matchups, and the old school style of play in this one. If the game's played at night, I'd stay off the moneyline, but little bit more value being that this is an early one. Same as past years - I Won't track moneyline's on the record, just the spread plays. Wish I could spend more time on the write-up, as I think there is a big advantage at the PG slot as well. Janning and Ubiles pretty much cancel each other out unless Ubiles goes off, which I just can't see happening. One last thing, Northeastern is probably going to come out in a zone style play, Siena has a few shooters, but it's going to limit the slashing to the basket which Siena is known so well for, and the zone could be a good thing in a morning tip with a slow tempo in a hostile environment. I think Siena's streak is in jeopardy.
2* Northeastern +8.5 -102
1* Northeastern ML +340
Other Day Game Thoughts:
Hate Arkansas LR's offensive philosophy, which will not work against Tulsa's bigs. Have to watch Arkansas LR a few times this year to see if anything has changed from last year, but think they also got rid of a few players as well. Have no interest in Temple/Georgetown, don't think i've bet a Georgetown game in 2 years.
I'm going to take a chance on WKU here. Plain and simple, WKU controls tempo and pace in about every game they play in, and I just don't see the offensive firepower available for LSU to stick with it. This is a rare chance for WKU to get to play in Madison Square Garden with a victory, and they've been pretty impressive the past few years in big games. Combine all of that experience along with AJ Slaughter, and I think they have the advantage tonight. They lost Valdez from last year, but they're the same type of team. It's more a system that develops players to know their roles rather than players with talent stepping in. LSU has shot horribly both games this year, carrying a trend over from last year. I got a chance to re-watch their game against Indiana State this afternoon and it's just the simple fundamentals that they lack. Don't get me wrong, they have talent, but sometimes easier is better, and when you don't do the easier, teams like WKU will capitalize in spurts. WKU went up early on Wisky MKE last night, then they let them get back in the game. They could taste it - the chance to go to Madison Square Garden. You'd better believe that McDonald pointed that out, and we should get a pretty focused group coming out of the gates tonight. Experience in big games trumps big names.
2* Western Kentucky +5.5 -108
1* Western Kentucky ML +210
Other Night Game Thoughts:
I think the Bonnies are on the rebound this year. I prolly woulda played points and ML if it was a true home game. St. John's has said enough and mentioned enough over the past few years to give St. Bonaventure about 10 pages of bulletin board material. I also passed on the Bonnies because they shot real well last time out, back to the average here. Curious to know what the Louisville line would have been with Arkansas at full strength. Won't touch an Illinois game until later in the year. Freshman coming off the bench should be starting and getting more minutes. Yes, I said that. This year's class and next year's class will put Illinois in the top 10 for the next three years if these kids can stick around. I really wanted to play Iowa State, unsure of Josh Young. Would imagine that he will play but will not be 100%. Drake can shoot the ball really well but the key in that game is rebounding. The main reason Drake lost to IUPUI was b/c of rebounding, and playing the match-up zone is a tough thing to rebound for or against. I really wanted to take Depaul. Just from what I read through the offseason stuff, it sounds like they're ready to go. Couldn't really lay that many points in a game with limited possessions though, but can't see why that isn't a 20 point victory. Indiana State was leary of playing too many players last night b/c of 7 games in 16 days and the coach related it to pitchers in baseball. Quite possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard, especially this early in the season. Wofford returns everyone I think, and the game was overtime or at least close last year. Missouri might hit 100+ if Tennessee Martin plays to their same pace as they have previously. It wouldn't surprise me to see them slow down a bit this year w/ new coaching staff and less offense. Canisius and Loyola Chicago are quite possibly two of the worst teams in the country in my opinion. I think this is the tail end of a 4 or 5 game roady for UAB currently - Scary. Wanted to play Weber State but just had a bad feeling. They're the better defensive squad and they'll always be in the game but they're too young to trust here.
Had I made a second play tonight, it would have been Long Beach State. There is value there. I'm thinking the coaches voted LBSU #1 in the pre-season poll and had Pacific in the #5 slot. Pacific was -4.5 in this spot. LBSU is two points less than that. Long Beach is young, yet athletic, not necessarily the best of shooters, but rely on athleticism to win the game. They should improve as the year goes on but if they do, this is one of those games they'll need to win. I laid off, however.
GL
0
Continued...
2-0, +5.00
Western Kentucky at LSU
I'm going to take a chance on WKU here. Plain and simple, WKU controls tempo and pace in about every game they play in, and I just don't see the offensive firepower available for LSU to stick with it. This is a rare chance for WKU to get to play in Madison Square Garden with a victory, and they've been pretty impressive the past few years in big games. Combine all of that experience along with AJ Slaughter, and I think they have the advantage tonight. They lost Valdez from last year, but they're the same type of team. It's more a system that develops players to know their roles rather than players with talent stepping in. LSU has shot horribly both games this year, carrying a trend over from last year. I got a chance to re-watch their game against Indiana State this afternoon and it's just the simple fundamentals that they lack. Don't get me wrong, they have talent, but sometimes easier is better, and when you don't do the easier, teams like WKU will capitalize in spurts. WKU went up early on Wisky MKE last night, then they let them get back in the game. They could taste it - the chance to go to Madison Square Garden. You'd better believe that McDonald pointed that out, and we should get a pretty focused group coming out of the gates tonight. Experience in big games trumps big names.
2* Western Kentucky +5.5 -108
1* Western Kentucky ML +210
Other Night Game Thoughts:
I think the Bonnies are on the rebound this year. I prolly woulda played points and ML if it was a true home game. St. John's has said enough and mentioned enough over the past few years to give St. Bonaventure about 10 pages of bulletin board material. I also passed on the Bonnies because they shot real well last time out, back to the average here. Curious to know what the Louisville line would have been with Arkansas at full strength. Won't touch an Illinois game until later in the year. Freshman coming off the bench should be starting and getting more minutes. Yes, I said that. This year's class and next year's class will put Illinois in the top 10 for the next three years if these kids can stick around. I really wanted to play Iowa State, unsure of Josh Young. Would imagine that he will play but will not be 100%. Drake can shoot the ball really well but the key in that game is rebounding. The main reason Drake lost to IUPUI was b/c of rebounding, and playing the match-up zone is a tough thing to rebound for or against. I really wanted to take Depaul. Just from what I read through the offseason stuff, it sounds like they're ready to go. Couldn't really lay that many points in a game with limited possessions though, but can't see why that isn't a 20 point victory. Indiana State was leary of playing too many players last night b/c of 7 games in 16 days and the coach related it to pitchers in baseball. Quite possibly the dumbest thing I've ever heard, especially this early in the season. Wofford returns everyone I think, and the game was overtime or at least close last year. Missouri might hit 100+ if Tennessee Martin plays to their same pace as they have previously. It wouldn't surprise me to see them slow down a bit this year w/ new coaching staff and less offense. Canisius and Loyola Chicago are quite possibly two of the worst teams in the country in my opinion. I think this is the tail end of a 4 or 5 game roady for UAB currently - Scary. Wanted to play Weber State but just had a bad feeling. They're the better defensive squad and they'll always be in the game but they're too young to trust here.
Had I made a second play tonight, it would have been Long Beach State. There is value there. I'm thinking the coaches voted LBSU #1 in the pre-season poll and had Pacific in the #5 slot. Pacific was -4.5 in this spot. LBSU is two points less than that. Long Beach is young, yet athletic, not necessarily the best of shooters, but rely on athleticism to win the game. They should improve as the year goes on but if they do, this is one of those games they'll need to win. I laid off, however.
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GL
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