All Forums | College Basketball

~~~~~~~TUESDAY COLLEGE HOOPS~~~~~~~I HAVE BEEN COLD LAST TWO DAYS~~~~ANY FEEDBACK WELCOME~~~~~

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 5499
Posts: 155
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 886
Posted: #51

Let's get ready to rumble!  Screw NBA!  LA n Denver OUCH!

GoodLuck to ya today, looks like you like all the dogs!  I like it!

 

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 4069
Posted: #52

kineprofessor

cusefan44

Patternbettor I think donate has a better chance of hitting his parlay.  lol. BOL today buddy!

Kansas24 0-3 Sunday! Nice work buddy! Whats that put you at 29-11 for the year. See ya loser. If so confident all are losers I guess I made it easy to fade me today. I hope you are betting your house on the favs today.

lovinhockey

222bad I know. I will change back once I get hot again. This is picture right after broke collar bone. lol. It is a fitting avatar after going down 100U. lol

PGram BOL to you buddy!

tmpeus78

Call82 

PuRo Lets get em buddy!

irish2202 Lets hope the dogs are barking.

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2007
Posts: 1107
Posted: #53

Lets hope they bark and we dont have to smell too much dogs**t

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2010
Posts: 1528
Posted: #54
is your record soley based on your system? or do you do straight game?
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 4069
Posted: #55

call82

sinnet11 I do all kinds of plays. Up until a month ago I only did straight bets. Straight bets are not my strength though. I have mad respect for those who can do it. Here was my record on January 25 before I started playing 2halfs and ML parlays.

1-25-10: YTD 127-129-6 +21U

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 85
Posted: #56
Ryda just read your posts from last night about the 12 seeds.... That was what I was worried about the money line's being to low... Cuz in my eye Cornell, SD st , and UTEP could all easily upset.... Gonna be a game time decision i guess... i have all three of those teams moving on in my bracket as well.... guess we'll wait and see how many actually do
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 4069
Posted: #57

jlgamlber BOL to you buddy! I hope they all three come through for you. I will put 1U on NMST. BOL

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2007
Posts: 12269
Posted: #58
BOL with your picks today bro.... I'll be at work for the night, so only making one play on a game that I can possibly catch, going  on Winthrop ML.... No reason behind it, tail lightly...
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 4069
Posted: #59
I like the play BDUBB! BOL to you buddy!
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 7939
Posted: #60
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2008
Posts: 26206
Posted: #61
























 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 4069
Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by tmpeus78:

























Did you steal my plays today!

 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 26036
Posted: #63
bol
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 4069
Posted: #64
Kirbs21 You have nothing to say.....lol I wouldn't either if you played the board out of no where. I think I can hit 60% plus at least two ML. That would make for a profitable day! You on anything today?
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2008
Posts: 26206
Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by rydaphotoguy:

Did you steal my plays today!


 maybe 
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 4069
Posted: #66
DOVJAK Thanks buddy same to you.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 4069
Posted: #67
Quote Originally Posted by tmpeus78:


 maybe 

Awesome you got any baseball plays to trade. lol

 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2008
Posts: 655
Posted: #68
"The interesting component of this trend is its seesaw nature. Namely, last season underdogs were a bookie busting 19-12-1 ATS (61%) in first round games, compared to 2002 when pups were an unprofitable 14-17-1 ATS (45%) in the opening round. However, in 2001 underdogs were once again profitable at 18-14 ATS (56%). In 2000, dogs were all square at 15-15-2 ATS (50%). In 1999, they were a 56% winning proposition (18-14 ATS) after going just 47% (14-16-2) in 1998."

don't mean to bust your balls as this info was interesting....but when was this published?....they keep talking about 5 and 6 years of data (going back to 98) and mention "last season" (presumably 2003) in relation to a seesaw with then referring to 02, 01..etc...

Again, good stuff...food for thought. Just wanted to mention it in case people started jumping all over it....even my dumbest college basketball friends who ONLY follow during madness and ONLY gamble on it when it's "bracket filling" (they consider $10 for 65 or so games gambling..idiots) know about the 12v5 scenario...think we missed the boat. Where is the hot tub time machine when you need it?

Good luck in the tourney.



 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 7939
Posted: #69
haha im stayin away from baseball today...just a few ncaa basketball lol maybe haha lost a few units last night...not happy with myself becasue i need to pay some court fines off
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 4069
Posted: #70

PorkyinNS I have actually read several articles. That one is a little outdated it seems. But the trend seems to continue throughout. I will try and find something better to post. I am also looking into this trend as well.

  • Since 2003, #1 and #2 seeds have gone a sub-par 20-25 (44%) against the spread in the first round of the Tournament.  They have won an overwhelming number of those games, but the large point spreads are difficult to overcome.  Note that this performance meshes well with the simple March Madness system we highlight below (large dogs that the public does NOT like).

  • Another tidbit of information is that # 6 and #7 seeds, in the first round, have gone a combined 37-19 (66%) ATS over the past several years.  In 2008, the #6 and #7 seeds went 6-2.  There seems to be some value in this range of seeds.  Perhaps it has to do with the way the Tournament Committee establishes seedings (records and/or performance that give these teams their seeds, have under-valued the #6 and #7 seeds).    

  • Number of Bets

    SportsInsights collects and displays numerous sports marketplace indicators, with Betting Percentages being its most popular.  Betting Percentages are very useful at helping to uncover value in the sports marketplace.  We also feel, however, that other indicators - such as the Number of Bets are important as well.  

    Using a simple system that typically takes College Hoops underdogs, we overlaid a filter that uses only the top 1/3 of games in terms of number of bets.  The winning percentage increased by more than 2%!  This makes sense, because games with public interest will lead to overpriced favorites.  The moral of the story: if you are Betting Against the Public, focus on the games where there is a lot of Public interest.  

    March Madness: Putting things Together

    The great thing about March Madness is that many of these factors come together to help make SportsInsights' betting systems and tools even more effective for our Members.  We have the whole country watching the tournament due to all of the office pools.  The increased attention leads to an increased number of bets -- and an increase in public biases.  The team at SportsInsights decided to see how our basic sports marketplace indicators performed during this time of "national focus" on "March Madness." 

    Using our College Basketball database that goes back over the past five seasons -- and over 12,000 games -- we looked at a simple system.  

    During March and April, betting on a team that has a:

    • Betting Percentage less than 30%

    • and is an Underdog of 11 points or more

    • Has yielded a winning percentage of 56% over the past several seasons.  

    Smart Money

    An even stronger use of "betting percentages" is to combine it with "line movement."  SportsInsights.com's members will recognize this as our Smart Money Betting System.  We won't go over Smart Money methods since SportsInsights has several good articles (including this one on College Hoops) on that topic.  Suffice it to say that using line moves in combination with betting percentages are a very powerful method of finding out where the Smart Money is going.   

    Summary

    College basketball offers sports investors many investment opportunities -- and at the same time, many challenges.  We have reviewed some tools that sports investors can use for college hoops.  This includes SportsInsights.com's bread-and-butter sports tools such as Betting Percentages and Line Moves.  In addition, we highlighted the Number of Bets -- which is often overlooked as an indicator.  Now, let the Madness begin -- and let the "sports investing profits" roll in!  Good luck!

    •  
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2009
    Posts: 4069
    Posted: #71

    Quote Originally Posted by Kirbs21:

    haha im stayin away from baseball today...just a few ncaa basketball lol maybe haha lost a few units last night...not happy with myself becasue i need to pay some court fines off

    Court sucks bro. What did you do?

     
    Captain
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Feb, 2010
    Posts: 7939
    Posted: #72
    they suspended my license because i had to take that driving class, and it was right when i moved so they sent the notice to my old address and i had no idea and 2 months later i get pulled for speeding trying to get home and make some bets lol..officer said my license was suspended and all the bs and towed my shit, fuckn horrible...they droped the driving while suspended, but i got busted for the wreckless lol...blows bigtime, i have like 700$ total i need to get...im hopeing to win some of that doing the tourny, if not il just have to take it out of my stash of 100U i won this season  
     
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2009
    Posts: 4069
    Posted: #73

    This is all very interesting as well. This article was written on the ninth of March

    Big East Conference

  • In Tuesday/Wednesday Big East Conference Tournament action, or the early rounds, FAVORITES are on a run of 17-5 SU & 14-8 ATS (63.5%) since ’05. When broken down among line ranges, you’ll find FAVORITES of less than 7-points are on a 9-2 SU & ATS run.
  • The quarterfinal round of the Big East tournament has been very high scoring over the last four years, with 11 of 16 games (68.8%) going OVER the total.
  • On average, one of every four Big East quarterfinal games is an upset, with 12 underdogs winning outright over the L12 years. Underdogs of 7-points or more during that span hold a 10-6 ATS edge (62.5%).
  • Underdogs have held the edge in the Big East semifinal round over the last five years, going 6-4 SU & 7-3 ATS (70%). Those getting more than 3-points have covered five of the L6 (83.3%). Fatigue tends to set in this round as well, as defense rules the day. Since ’99, UNDER the total is 15-7 (68.2%).
  • A strange pattern has developed in the Big East tournament title game, with underdogs and favorites alternating ATS wins EVERY YEAR since ’98. Accordingly, the UNDERDOG is scheduled to cover in ’10 after Louisville’s chalk win over Syracuse last spring.

    Atlantic 10 Conference

  • UNDERDOGS have managed to split the eight first round Atlantic 10 tournament games of the last two years after FAVORITES had been on an incredible 24-2 SU & 21-5 ATS (80.8%) run.
  • FAVORITES of 7-points or less are on a run of 18-4 SU & 17-5 ATS (77.3%) in first round Atlantic 10 tournament action since ’01.
  • Including 3-1 ATS a year ago, FAVORITES in the quarterfinal round of the A-10 tourney, going 20-7 SU & 18-9 ATS (66.7%) since ’03. During that stretch, DOUBLE-DIGIT FAVORITES are 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS (77.8%).
  • The semifinal round of the A-10 tournament has proven quite competitive, with UNDERDOGS of 4.5-points or more having gone 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS over the last dozen years.
  • The A-10 title game has been anything but competitive, with underdogs having won just once in the last 10 years (1-8 ATS 11.1%).

    Big 12 Conference

  • There might be no other major conference tournament that has seen more UNDERDOGS cover with regularity than the Big 12. In fact, since 2000, dogs are 61-44 ATS, a solid 58.1%. UNDERDOGS of 6-points or more are 37-21 ATS (63.8%) during that stretch.
  • The last three Big 12 tournaments have been particularly defensive-oriented, with UNDER the total converting in 22 of 33 games (66.7%), and the losing team being held to 60 points or less in 17 of those contests.
  • On Big 12 tournament games with totals set at 147-points or higher, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).
  • The last 12 Big 12 tournament quarterfinal games have gone UNDER the total (100%). UNDERDOGS are 7-3-2 ATS (70%) in that span.
  • Like clockwork, the last seven years of Big 12 semifinal games have seen one favorite cover, one underdog. Of the games with lines set at 6-points or higher, UNDERDOGS are 5-1 ATS (83.3%).

    •  

     
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2009
    Posts: 4069
    Posted: #74

    Conference-USA

  • The millennium also saw a shift from favorites to underdogs holding the edge in Conference USA, as dogs are a healthy 60-45 ATS (57.1%) since ’00.
  • Double-digit lines are a regular occurrence in the C-USA tourney, and teams laying 10-points or more are 19-0 SU & 11-8 ATS (57.9%) since ’06.
  • The best value on C-USA tourney UNDERDOGS comes with those getting 6.5-points or less, as they are 20-17 SU & 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%) dating back to ’03.
  • C-USA UNDERDOGS in the FIRST ROUND own a 24-13-2 ATS (64.9%) record since ’00.
  • Of the 16 C-USA round one matchups since ’06, the UNDER is 13-3 (81.3%).
  • The C-USA quarterfinal round also “goes to the dogs”, as UNDERDOGS are 9-3 ATS (75%) over the last three seasons.
  • With Memphis dominating the proceedings, the FAVORITES turn the tables in the semifinal round, having gone 17-3 SU & 12-8 ATS (60%) over the L10 years. The Tigers have won four straight title games as favorites as well, going 3-1 ATS (75%).
  • Since 2006, UNDER the total is 10-2 (83.3%) in the C-USA semifinal & final games.

    Mountain West Conference

  • Having held the yearly edge in every one of the last eight Mountain West tournaments except 2005, UNDERDOGS are 40-18 ATS (68.9%) overall during that span.
  • There is a sizeable break at one particular line point in past Mountain West Tournament games. FAVORITES of 9-points or more are 8-7 ATS (53.3%) since ’02. UNDERDOGS of 8.5-points or less are an incredible 33-10 ATS (76.7%).
  • UNDERDOGS hold a particularly strong edge in the early Mountain West Tournament action, going 16-4 ATS (80%) in the round one and quarterfinals games since ’06.
  • FAVORITES have done well late in the last three MWC tourney’s, going 7-1 SU & ATS (87.5%) over the last three years in the semi’s and title games. Note: last year’s championship game was a pick em’ pointspread.

    Pac 10 Conference

  • The Pac 10 is one of the few conferences whose tournaments have been ruled by FAVORITES in recent years, as those teams laying the points are 23-10 ATS (69.7%) over the last four years, including the first six games of the ’09 proceedings.
  • The Pac 10 tourney games have also been high scoring over the L4 years, 23-12-1 OVER (65.7%) since ’06.
  • FAVORITES of -3 to -6 points are on a run of 12-0 SU & 9-2-1 ATS in the Pac 10 Tournament.
  • Don’t even bother considering underdogs in the first round or quarterfinals of the Pac 10 tourney if basing it on recent years, as FAVORITES are on an incredible surge of 20-4 SU & 19-5 ATS (79.2%) in those rounds since ’06.
  • UNDERDOGS stand a much better chance of covering late in the Pac 10 Tournament, 11-7-1 ATS (61.1%) since ’03 in the semi’s and title games.
  • The key benchmark on wagering totals in the Pac 10 tourney is 156. In games with posted numbers less than that, the OVER is 34-19 (64.2%) since inception. In those higher than 156, the UNDER is 7-2 (77.8%).

    Big West Conference

  • The Big West Conference has seen a fairly even distribution of favorites and underdog covers over the last seven seasons, with FAVORITES owning a slight 25-22 ATS (53.2%) edge.
  • More on the competitiveness of the Big West tourney…since ’03, there have been only 10 games with lines of 7.5-points or more, with UNDERDOGS going just 1-9 SU, but 8-2 ATS (80%) in those contests.
  • The last five years of the Big West Tournament have been a goldmine for UNDER bettors, as those playing that side of the total have gone 25-9, for 73.5%. During that span, on totals averaging 137.6 PPG, the games have produced just 133.5 PPG.

    Big Sky Conference

  • The Big Sky Conference has shown a shift to FAVORITES in the last three seasons, as those teams laying points have converted 10 of the 15 (66.7%) games during that stretch.
  • There have only been two upsets in the Big Sky Conference tournament semifinals over the last seven years, and FAVORITES are 10-4 ATS (71.4%) in that span.
  • The Big Sky Conference is one of few where LARGE UNDERDOGS, or those getting 7-points or more, have a good shot at an upset, owning a 4-8 SU & 8-4 ATS record since ’98, including 2-2 SU & 4-0 ATS over the L2 years.
  • FAVORITES in the -4 to -6.5-point line range have been nearly automatic in Big Sky Conference tournament action, 16-1 SU & 15-2 ATS (88.2%).

    Big Ten Conference

  • For being a dog-dominated event for most of its early years, there has been a shift to FAVORITES in the last three Big Ten Tournaments, 18-12 ATS (60%) since ’07.
  • There has also been a huge shift in oddsmakers’ perception on totals. Between ’99 & ’06, the average posted total in Big Ten tourney games was 130.5. Since then, it has dropped nine points to 121.5. Still, UNDER has been the correct choice in 18 of 30 games during that span (60%).
  • FAVORITES swept all three opening round games of the Big Ten tourney last year, both SU & ATS, slowing a run of 14-4 ATS by dogs.
  • Similarly, FAVORITES own a 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS mark in the semifinals of the L3 Big Ten tourney’s after going just 1-11 ATS prior.
  • DOUBLE-DIGIT Big Ten tourney UNDERDOGS are 7-1 ATS (87.5%) since ’05.
  • LOWER SEEDED FAVORITES boast an 11-5 SU & 9-6-1 ATS (60%) record since ’98 in the Big Ten Tournament.
    •  
     
    Banned
    Participation Meter
    Joined: Nov, 2009
    Posts: 4069
    Posted: #75

    Atlantic Coast Conference

  • ACC UNDERDOGS swept the quarterfinal & semifinal games of 2009 against the spread and boast an overall mark of 44-23-3 ATS (65.7%) since ’03.
  • UNDERDOGS of 9-points or more are 18-6-1 ATS (75%) in the ACC Tournament since ’03, including five straight covers.
  • How about giving some thought to UNDERDOGS on the pointspread and money line in the opening round of this year’s ACC tourney, as they are 13-6 SU & ATS (68.4%) since ’05.
  • Quarterfinal UNDERDOGS are effective against the spread, but that’s it, boasting a record of 7-21 SU & 18-9-1 ATS (66.7%) since ’03.
  • Semifinal UNDERDOGS are even better than previous rounds, 15-6-1 ATS (71.4%) since ’99.
  • It’s not until the ACC title game where FAVORITES take over, 10-1 SU & 6-3-2 ATS (66.7%) since ’99.
  • The only recognizable trend I could uncover on totals in the ACC tourney came on games with posted numbers 150 points or higher, 10-5 OVER (66.7%) in the L15.

    Mid-American Conference

  • FAVORITES are the preferred betting choice in MAC tournament games in recent years, with a record of 40-26 ATS (60.6%) over the L6 seasons.
  • The MAC title game has seen the FAVORITE go 9-3 SU & ATS (75%) since its inception. The straight up winner is 12-0 ATS.
  • Semifinal FAVORITES in the MAC tournament have swept the last three years of action and are 5-1 ATS (83%) in that span.
  • The best spot for playing UNDERDOGS in the MAC tournament has proven to be in games when the lines are 3-points or less. In such cases, they are 23-16 ATS (59%) since ’98.
  • OVER the total has been the preferred choice on that wagering option since ’04, with a 37-24 (60.7%) record since ’04.

    Southeastern Conference

  • The 2008 SEC Tournament was dominated by dogs, 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS, but split down the middle last year, 5-5-1. Overall, since ’05, dogs own a 29-25-1 ATS (53.7%) edge.
  • Georgia became the first SEC tourney DOUBLE-DIGIT dog to pull an upset since prior to ’98 when it beat Mississippi State in ’08. Overall, those teams are 1-15 SU & 5-11 ATS (31.3%) in that span.
  • In past SEC games with pointspreads less than 3-points, UNDERDOGS are 15-13 SU & 16-11-1 ATS (59.3%) since ’98.
  • Although it’s fluctuated back-and-forth in the last few seasons, FAVORITES own a 22-11 ATS edge in opening round SEC tourney action since ’00. Lower-seeded chalk is 5-1 SU & ATS of those games.
  • UNDERDOGS have been the preferred choice of bettors in SEC quarterfinals over the L3 seasons, 8-3 ATS (72.7%).
  • In the last nine SEC Tournament championship games, the UNDER is 8-1 (88.9%), and the UNDERDOGS are 4-5 SU & 5-3-1 ATS (62.5%).

    Western Athletic Conference

  • UNDERDOGS covered all but one game in the 2009 WAC Tournament, increasing their four-year record to 20-9 ATS (69%). That span has also seen OVER the total go 21-10 (67.7%).
  • Lines of less than 3-points should raise an immediate red-flag for WAC tourney bettors, as UNDERDOGS of 2.5-points or less are a profit-making 13-5 SU & 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) since ’00.
  • Although there is no first round in this year’s WAC tourney, since ’06, UNDERDOGS in the first round and quarterfinals combined have gone 14-5 ATS (73.7%) over the L4 seasons.
  • The WAC quarterfinals have produced 14 OVER’s, 6 UNDER’s (70%) over the last five seasons. Similarly, eight of the L10 (80%) WAC semifinal contests have gone OVER the posted total. Amazingly, in that same stretch, all five WAC title games exceeded the total as well. If you’re combining those numbers, it’s 27-8 (77.1%) OVER for the last five years.
    • All Forums | College Basketball
    About Us
    Contact Us
    Careers
    Our Team
    Brand
    Testimonials
    Betting Guides
    Sportsbook Reviews
    Sports Betting News
    Podcasts
    Responsible Gaming
    Betting Sites
    Canada Betting Sites
    Canada Casinos
    Best Betting Apps
    Contests
    Streak Survivor
    King of Covers
    Office Pools
    The Covers community has
    810,221
    lifetime members worldwide
    Covers 30 Years Logo Established in 1995,
    Covers is the world
    leader in sports
    betting information.
    Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
    Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
    Copyright © 1995 - 2026 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

    If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.