Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 67-46, +85.65
March Leans: 42-39
Year: 293-237, +163.10
Year Leans: 244-242
Personally, I feel there is one factor to tonight’s game that will determine the winner and that’s it. Just one. How well does Kansas shoot from the perimeter? That’s how I see it. They aren’t the best perimeter shooting team, but they’re going to have ample opportunities against a team that doesn’t pressure like Kentucky. If you watched the Louisville game, you saw a team that took the ball to the basket relentlessly, and just a poor gameplan early. Yes, you have to attack to keep the defenders honest, but I thought it was a bit too much. I think you’ll see Kansas focus on getting the ball inside early tonight, but the outcome of this game should depend on how well they shoot it from the outside. A few things to note here, Tyshawn Taylor is 0-20 in domes from beyond the arc, definitely a cause for concern. Kansas is coming off a high-pressure tough defense in Ohio State, so that might take its toll on some tired legs in terms of the jump shot. In terms of going against a team that doesn’t pressure on the outside, Kansas has not fared well at all. Only one time this season did they shoot better than 40% from beyond the arc against a team that doesn’t utilize pressure on the outside, and that was Texas Tech. There were thirteen other instances this year where these guards had every opportunity to make a jump shot against no pressure, and the results were not all that great. In those thirteen games, they attempted 231 shots from the perimeter, and made only 61 of them. That’s a whopping 26%, and that’s against no pressure. That would concern me if I’m backing the Jayhawks. Not from the standpoint of being able to hit those shots on the biggest of stages, but from the standpoint of not being able to do it for some reason all that great on the year. They’re going to have opportunities, in fact, this is probably their best source of scoring within the match-ups tonight, and I think this is factor #1 of importance. Factor #2 sort of depends on how well they shoot the ball as well. I think it’s been pretty obvious that this isn’t one of the best Bill Self teams of past years, but they’ve made it a point this entire tournament to “muddy” up the game, or to make it dirty and ugly for that same point. If you’re not the most talented, then you have to switch up the style. I think this becomes a problem tonight. In order to do this against a Kentucky team that likes to get out in transition at just about every opportunity, they’re going to have to hit shots. If they can’t score from the outside, they can’t dirty up the game and they’ll be playing catch-up. Simply put, if they aren’t knocking down shots, they can’t defend the way they want to. They can’t get pressure early in the front court and focus on getting turnovers against Kentucky if they aren’t making shots. They can’t utilize any type of full court press if they aren’t hitting shots. The analysis sounds pretty simple. If Kansas makes its shots; it has a chance to stay in the game. If they don’t, then it’s going to get away from them pretty fast. I think Kansas holds value just because they’re the one taking shots with no-pressure, and if that is the case, they’re the ones controlling how this game plays out. Of course, as indicated above, they haven’t done well shooting the ball against these styles, so I’m going to lay off, but I see a bit of value with revenge. I also see value in Kentucky as well. They’re coming off a tough defensive pressure sometimes in the full court and mostly in the three-quarters to half court, and Kansas relies on the half court more, so things should open up a bit for Kentucky offensively and Cal has a bit of revenge from the last title game. Of course, you have the concern of youth playing in a title game and going up against size in the paint, and of course, not being able to play their style of game if Kansas can knock down some early shots. All of this might sound stupid, or so simplistic, but I just don’t see anything else that suggests the game goes any differently. If one team can go above the norm and hit shots from the perimeter (Kansas), then it’ll have a chance to win the game at the end or at the very least, stay close. If they can’t, then you might get as ugly of a game as Butler/Uconn was last year, and this is probably a blow-out.
Nothing for me, going to enjoy this one.
GL
0
...... we'll see Much Respect 
me 
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