...As I mentioned, VMI very well could carry momentum from yesterday's game into today, it certainly is a possibility. But, I'm going against it.
5* Winthrop -4
Beilein's still perfect off a loss (7-0), and those wins come against UCLA, Iowa State, Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana, and Wisconsin; much better than what a reeling Illinois team brings to the table. Yah, Illinois just beat Iowa, but it wasn't pretty, and had to put a late 2H charge forth to keep the game at bay. Illinois does have revenge, but dishing that angle for Illinois having to score in the half court which is a struggle. Michigan playing to avoid Day 1 of tourney and locks that up with a win, Illinois play for...Bruce? Maybe. In the first meeting, for the first time what seems like all year, Beilein used the 1-3-1 zone a bit and Illinois looked befuddled. He actually changed up defenses on the fly, and continually rotated them. Not a good recipe for a team that struggles against one defensive style in the half court.
3* Michigan +2
Does Jacksonville State take care of the ball? Yup. Do they attack against the zone? Yup. Do they have experience in the back-to-back setting? Yup. And, they're also deep and they have a ton of guards, which is what I want going against the press. I'd rather have a team that's going to attack a zone rather than one that's complacent against it, and that's what I'm getting here. Morehead State had an impressive season considering what they lost from last years team, but the truly remarkable thing is that they played the entire month of February against the conference's bottom 6 teams. So, yes, while they ended the conference season 5-1, the five victories are a bit misleading. And the only loss? To Jax State at home by 14. Morehead State did beat them earlier in the year, but Jax State's gone to a smaller lineup focused on guard play since. Momentum should carry over from last night.
3* Jacksonville State PK
Hawaii returns home after a long trip. Idaho continues it's end of season roady out of altitude and into the Islands. First game hit 67 possessions, Idaho doesn't want to get it that fast again, as that was their season high in regulation on the season. Even if both teams shoot as good as they did in the first meeting (56% and 48%), total might still go under if Idaho's able to slow the game. Banking on one of these teams to be flat, either Hawaii with the travel and struggles against slow paced teams, or Idaho with the travel, extra time off, and coming off physical USU.
2* Idaho/Hawaii Under 143.5
Other Notes: Want value? How about Washington favored by 11 at home and now -7 on the road? Doesn't make sense. Yah, USC sucks something fierce, but what exactly has Washington shown on the road this year? Just beat rival WSU by 4. Beat Oregon State by 3. Lost at Oregon by a million. Beat Arizona by 2. Beat Arizona State by 6. Beat Utah for crying out loud by 4. Lost at Colorado by 16. That's all of them. Probably more of a fade on Washington hitting the road with UCLA on tap. Again, USC sucks, but if Washington can't beat Arizona State by more than 7, how are they gonna beat a better defensive team (they also went to the line 31 times which helped there)? First meeting this year was a bit lopsided, but it was also the only time USC has hit the 70 possession mark in a conference game, so take away 10 possessions, put Washington on the road, and this one has the makings of being ugly. I don't trust USC, but they get a lean here. SEMO has only played 1 game in the back-to-back situation under Dickey Nutt and they lost by 16 (last year). Wanna hear the scores from the Missouri Valley Tournament games last year? Here is every one of them:
111
111
114
117
126
102
110
115
116
The conference is better as a whole defensively this year. Pure coincidence that the #7-#10 seeds playing tonight bring in the worst offenses in the conference for the season? UC Davis has looked good as of late. That's the good part. The bad part is they've looked good against teams with no defense in a fast setting. They just upset Fullerton, and if I had a gun to my head, they go right back down to earth tonight on the road at Snail Poly who has a decent defense, who will play slow, and who will light the UC Davis zone up with good outside shooting. The first time these two met, Poly was in the midst of a four game roady. Simply not the case here. I want no part of UCLA in the sandwich scenario. Get up for a WSU team you already beat on the road, or get up for a Washington team on Saturday that you can deny the league title to? I'd choose the Saturday game. It for today...
Lean: USC +7
Lean: Cal Poly -15
Lean: Southern Illinois/Indiana State Under 124.5
Lean: Bradley/Drake Under 127
GL