Ball State went 19-13 last year (10-6 MAC), and this year they return 8 of 9 men in their rotation. Morehead State returns just 19% of their offensive production this year and 30% of defensive. They have 5 wins this season, and many huge blowout losses. Of their 5 wins, 3 are against unranked opponents, and 1 is against #340 Binghamton, who is an absolute disgrace to basketball. Their win against Princeton was a very good win; it was, however, during an 8-day span in which Princeton had to play 5 games. It was probably somewhat due to an overlook and fatigue on Princeton’s behalf.
Morehead State is 190th in offensive efficiency and 240th in defensive efficiency. They rank #331 in the country on defensive FG%, #313 in the country on turnovers, #291 in the country on 2P%, #336 on defensive 2P%. YIKES. They also get blocked a ton and are #323 at blocking (not that important, but they still suck). They are a very good 3-point shooting team, I will totally give them credit for that. They rank 30th in the country at 3P% (although they are #266 in defensive 3P%) and 36.1% of their total points come from 3-pointers.
Too bad for them. Ball State has really improved their defense this year; they are 16th in the country at defensive 3P%. (They are also #63 at defensive 2P% and 14th in the country at defensive effective fg%.) Morehead relies heavily on the 3-pointer to keep them in the game, and they’re going to have a difficult time getting points against this sharp Ball State team. Ball State is also 31st in the country at steals, which is going to give Morehead EVEN MORE trouble with their already horrendous turnover %......KEEP READING..........
Ball State’s schedule thus far has been just decent. They’ve beaten a bunch of mediocre teams. All of their losses are legitimate: Arizona (#48) @ Arizona, 10 pt loss; Indiana State @ Indiana State, 7 point loss; IUPUI @ IUPUI, 9 point loss. Those first two you should not have expected Ball State to even keep close. And the third one came after Ball State had already beaten IUPUI earlier in the season. It’s safe to say their schedule is panning out exactly as one would expect.
One of the 8 men that Ball State returns is senior Jarrod Jones. “Jarrod Jones [is an entirely deserving] first-team All-MAC selection; he is a monster post scorer and rebounder. He could do with either improving his mid-range jumper or lessening its use, but even at his already-established production levels he’s one of the best players in the conference. –Prospectus
Don’t think the dude needs to be worrying about his jumper, considering he’s shooting a steller 56.9% on FG. He has certainly lived up to his hype this year. Here are the rest of his stats: 19.7 ppg, 8.7 rebounds per game, 87% on free throws, and 71.4% on 3 pointers (only 7 attempts for the 3’s, but still pretty impressive for the 6-9 forward). Oh…and did I mention that this is all for averaging 31.7 minutes per game?
So what gives? Every team has a great player on their squad, right? Well take a deeper look: Ball State is 105th in the country at rebounding (#56 in efficiency), despite playing a slow-as-molasses game pace (296th slowest in the country). Jones has been a monster on the glass. Morehead State, on the other hand, has been abysmal at rebounding, ranking #296 in the country overall on a #318 overall game tempo. Give Ball State the advantage in the paint.
HUGE revenge factor in this game as well for Ball State. These two teams met last January, where Morehead pulled off an ugly 2-point victory (50-48) on Ball St.’s home court. Remember this: Ball State returns 8 of 9 players this year. Morehead State replaced 10 players out of 12. Ball State WILL remember this game. Morehead won’t.
Ball St. -2.5
Think we’re getting a lot of value out of W. Michigan today. This is a team that returns all except for one player from their 2011 team that went 21-13 overall and 11-5 in-conference (MAC) and was projected to finish 3rd in the conference this year. Who was that one player who left? Alex Wolf, a seventh man who averaged less than 20 minutes per game.
Here’s what Prospectus had to say about W. Michigan:
“…most MAC teams would kill for five players this proven. If their offense isn’t the best in the conference this year, something went wrong. Defensively, there were too many fouls and not enough turnovers forced. Watching tape, Western Michigan’s defenders expend a lot of time chasing around opposing players away from the ball. The effort’s there, the athleticism’s there, but the discipline wasn’t quite there yet in 2011. It’s the type of change that a year of coaching and a year of experience can make a nonissue. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the defense click and Western Michigan make an attack on Kent State’s throne. Either way, this is probably the best shot the Broncos will have to make a run at a MAC title for a few years, with Ward, Whitfield, and Douglas in their final seasons of eligibility. The NCAA tournament is not a pipe dream.”
W. Michigan sits at 3-7 overall this year; you’re probably not impressed. But look deeper: they have the 23rd hardest non-conference schedule in the country (17th hardest overall)! Losses have come at the hands of #40 Temple (14 pts), #34 Iona (6 pts), #167 Colorado (5 pts), #97 South Dakota State (6 pts), #21 Purdue (43 points OUCH!), #29 Gonzaga (20 pts), and #153 Detroit (9 pts). As shown in the parentheses, many of these were very close games. They’ve mustered up a win against a solidd Duquesne team (117 in nation), and have proven they can run the floor with up-tempo teams (Duquesne and Iona play extremely fast basketball). This will be important considering that’s Oakland’s style (4th fastest in country).
Oakland’s best win comes
against Tennessee, #116 in the country. They’ve managed an 8-5 record. Like W.
Michigan, they’ve had losses that should have been expected: Ohio; Michigan;
Arizona; Arkansas; Alabama. Wins are really not that good: #345 Grambling; #149
Houston; #252 Utah Valley; #116 Tennessee; #254 South Dakota; #251 UMKC;
unranked Rochester MI; #155 Valparaiso. They have a moderately tough schedule,
@ #136 overall and #68 non-conference….STICK WITH ME….
….Oakland was actually projected to finish 1 position behind W. Michigan in all of NCAA this year for preseason rankings. Oakland at #97, W. Michigan at #96. I think we have two teams here who are fairly equal, and W. Michigan’s true talent has not been shown yet, as they have been suffocated by such a brutal non-conference schedule. I think 9 points is too many for this experienced W. Michigan team going up against an unexperienced Oakland team.
Oakland went 25-10 (17-1 Summit) last year. They were first in conference in offense and in defense. Here is what prospectus had to say in the preseason:
“After two years far above the rest of the Summit League, Oakland will likely return to earth this year. The team lost the entirety of its dominant frontcourt as Keith Benson and Will Hudson graduated, and Ilija Milutinovic left a year early to play professionally in his home country of Serbia. In their place is a group of freshmen.”
This is a classic “buy low” game for this talented W. Michigan team. They’ve got talent in all 5 starters. 4 of their starters average at least 10 points per game (the 5th starter, Nate Hutcheson, averages 9.4 ppg) and 4 starts average at least 5 boards per game (again, Hutcheson close behind at 4.5 board per game). They have the ability to spread the floor and work it in the paint (22nd in the country in rebounds per game). Their defense has improved this year, and I don’t see a vulnerability on their squad that allows Oakland to walk away with a 10 point win.
Also will be glad to see the public all over Oakland (trust me, public money loves records, and will scoff at 3-7 W. Michigan. I will wait for a better line most likely, but for now…
...W. Michigan +9
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