Does anyone know how to do this? I used to last year but can't find my notes..... and Ken was generous enough to do that calculation for you during the regular season but not anymore for tourney time.....
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Does anyone know how to do this? I used to last year but can't find my notes..... and Ken was generous enough to do that calculation for you during the regular season but not anymore for tourney time.....
Ok I havent done it in a while but here goes. Zags/Marys example
Zags 117.3 88.8
St mary 110.1 95.2
League avg poss 66.6
Points per poss 101.5
Zags avg poss 68 st mary 66.4 so to figure out the % of offense divide possessions for each team divide by league avg. 68 divide by 66.6=102% for zags 66.4 divided by 66.6 = 99.6 % for marys
tempo = 102 X 99.6 X 66.6 = roughly 68 possesions
now multiple 117.3 X 95.2 X 101.2 = 112
110.1 X 88.8 X 101.2= 98.9
now divide each by possesions 68
Equals zags 76 st mary 67.
Make sense? I'm not very good at explaining things and its been a while.
Ok I havent done it in a while but here goes. Zags/Marys example
Zags 117.3 88.8
St mary 110.1 95.2
League avg poss 66.6
Points per poss 101.5
Zags avg poss 68 st mary 66.4 so to figure out the % of offense divide possessions for each team divide by league avg. 68 divide by 66.6=102% for zags 66.4 divided by 66.6 = 99.6 % for marys
tempo = 102 X 99.6 X 66.6 = roughly 68 possesions
now multiple 117.3 X 95.2 X 101.2 = 112
110.1 X 88.8 X 101.2= 98.9
now divide each by possesions 68
Equals zags 76 st mary 67.
Make sense? I'm not very good at explaining things and its been a while.
Does anyone know how to do this? I used to last year but can't find my notes..... and Ken was generous enough to do that calculation for you during the regular season but not anymore for tourney time.....
Um he's still generous enough to do it for you I was just looking at the Zags game and he has it
Does anyone know how to do this? I used to last year but can't find my notes..... and Ken was generous enough to do that calculation for you during the regular season but not anymore for tourney time.....
Um he's still generous enough to do it for you I was just looking at the Zags game and he has it
they are up now but weren't earlier in the day. for some of the tourney games yesterday, they never got posted.... would prefer to do this on my own, especially early. history shows that lines gravitate to his numbers.
Quote Originally Posted by kindergartencapper:
Um he's still generous enough to do it for you I was just looking at the Zags game and he has it
they are up now but weren't earlier in the day. for some of the tourney games yesterday, they never got posted.... would prefer to do this on my own, especially early. history shows that lines gravitate to his numbers.
I think KenPom has been deadly in late rounds of tournament..
I am still trying to reconstruct the formula to come up with projected scores and the forumula above does not get me there... it's close, but can not understand who you use Adj tempo in that forumla....
AS I SEE IT
You have the following numbers:
1st you have D-1 AVG of
ADJ Efficiency
ADJ Tempo
These numbers are the same for ALL matchups of the day... Those numbers should change very slightly every day based upon the plays of the previous day... ???
Now we have team specific numbers:
ADJ Offense Efficiency
ADJ Defnesive Efficiency
ADJ Tempo
Are their any other numbers used in calculations?
I think KenPom has been deadly in late rounds of tournament..
I am still trying to reconstruct the formula to come up with projected scores and the forumula above does not get me there... it's close, but can not understand who you use Adj tempo in that forumla....
AS I SEE IT
You have the following numbers:
1st you have D-1 AVG of
ADJ Efficiency
ADJ Tempo
These numbers are the same for ALL matchups of the day... Those numbers should change very slightly every day based upon the plays of the previous day... ???
never use a single "prediction" to decide who to bet on. I use pomeroy's projections to get a feel for where the line is going to move. In most cases, they almost always move towards his #'s.
never use a single "prediction" to decide who to bet on. I use pomeroy's projections to get a feel for where the line is going to move. In most cases, they almost always move towards his #'s.
I was just looking at the Zags game and he has it 
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