Play on Navy -3.5
Navy enters this Patriot League matchup with a clear efficiency and matchup edge across multiple model categories. Offensively, the Midshipmen shoot 46.6% from the field (national rank 91) and 52.3% on two-point attempts (rank 86), a strong pairing against a Lafayette defense that allows 52.1% on twos (rank 226) and 53.5% eFG% (rank 249). This creates a consistent interior scoring path, especially with Aidan Kehoe anchoring the paint as an elite finisher and rebounder.
The free-throw profile is another meaningful separator. Navy converts 74.1% at the line, while Lafayette sits at 68.6% (rank 298). Navy also gets to the stripe more frequently with a 0.389 FT rate (rank 95), while Lafayette allows a higher FT rate defensively. In a projected half-court game with limited possessions, this efficiency gap at the line becomes magnified late.
On the defensive end, Navy’s biggest strength shows up in interior shot suppression. Opponents shoot just 46.9% on two-point attempts against Navy, ranking 10th nationally, forcing Lafayette into a tougher shot diet.
Lafayette’s offense already struggles with efficiency, shooting only 42.2% overall (rank 281) and 47.5% on twos (rank 274), making it difficult for them to generate reliable half-court scoring if Navy controls the paint.
While Lafayette does hold a ball-security advantage, particularly at home, the Midshipmen offset this with a clear rebounding edge, averaging 35.9 rebounds per game to Lafayette’s 32.9, including more offensive rebounds that create extra possessions.
That rebounding margin helps Navy survive small turnover spikes and sustain offensive pressure. Recent form also favors Navy, who have been consistently winning by margin, including multiple double-digit conference victories, while Lafayette has played closer, more volatile games. Navy has also proven capable on the road, posting a positive scoring margin away from home, which limits the impact of Lafayette’s home-court advantage.
From a personnel standpoint, Austin Benigni is the best guard in this matchup. His 18.7 points per game and 4.3 assists give Navy a late-clock creator who can exploit Lafayette’s defensive help, while Aidan Kehoe’s 14.9 points and 10.4 rebounds per game reinforce Navy’s interior dominance on both ends.
Model Verdict:
Navy holds advantages in shooting efficiency, free-throw conversion and volume, interior defense, rebounding, and recent form, while Lafayette’s primary edge comes in ball security. With the market listing Navy around -3.5, the model makes the true line closer to -5.5, indicating value on the Midshipmen. The expected game script favors Navy controlling the paint, winning the possession battle over time, and separating late.
Projected Final:
Navy 72 – Lafayette 64
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