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laugh if you want... THE key to winning consistently

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MidniteWriter

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Joined: May, 2007

Posts: 771

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 3:33 PM ET #26

Either way, you are still making a personal value judgement on the line, i.e. whether you think the Vegas number is right or not.

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KKemmis

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Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 1989

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 3:42 PM ET #27

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nitprowlr

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Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 1108

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 6:01 PM ET #28

hey vegas... unless the money is EXACTLY 50/50, someone is ALWAYS in the minority...

purdue n clemson in the bank... pending cal.

good luck however u choose to roll brutha.

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nitprowlr

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Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 1108

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 6:05 PM ET #29

midnite... agreed. im just tryin to 'believe' in vegas' judgement more than my own...

people just arent getting this and im done analyzing... from here on out i just post my picks, no discussion. im glad there was some back n forth from some smart cappers...

it will be hard to think this way and obviously it takes some knowledge to spot these situations. we'll see how it rolls... 2-0 so far on the games i discussed, pending cal.

good luck brutha!

good luck brutha.

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marksb79

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Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 1743

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 6:08 PM ET #30

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boomersooner13

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Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 3563

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 6:10 PM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by nitprowlr:

btw, im 108-75-6 / 13-9 big plays posted... at $200-300 for most plays, do the math and I'm doing just fine.

lookin back though, many of my losers fall into the 'taking the gift' category. i WILL be disciplined moving forward and my numbers will improve as a result.

I appreciate the post. I really like the write up and thought you did a good job with it. But vegas isn't smarter than everyone. SHARP BETTORS make money. If you do a little research and do your homework, you can see where vegas gets its numbers. For example, I know exactly how vegas sets the juice at their O/U for hockey and i know how they do O/U for CBB (which is why I've hit 9 out of my last 10 CBB O/U)

Vegas banks on people who just start out gambling and don't really know what they're doing. I'll admit, i was one of those people. I lost a good bit of money when i first started, then i got sharp.....and now I'm up over 10K and i've only been betting for 9 months and i started out with 10 or 20 dollar bets.

Vegas IS smarter than the majority, but it's the small percentage of bettors who understand vegas that know how to beat the books

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glefkb01

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Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 2554

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 9:42 PM ET #32

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jflydaddy

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Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 4599

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 9:54 PM ET #33

what about nd +4 thought that was a gift, took nd $line, lite play on cal here, i really don't like cal either, they only won once for me this year.

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nitprowlr

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Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 1108

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 9:54 PM ET #34

hey boomer... do you post all of your plays? who were you on today for example? there are a lot of folks up 10G with unposted plays im sure... gain some credibility for gods sake before u tell us about ur winnings...

my post today was to support three of my POSTED big plays (purdue, clemson, and cal)... you see how that the first two covered, now pending cal.

if you check my later post, i also POSTED penn st and dukies under...

post em if u got em and plz show me how many POSTED winners it took u to get up 10G starting with your $10 bets...

im not a basher on this forum, but damn dude, ur buggin!

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TRAIN69

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2002

Posts: 55436

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 9:58 PM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by nitprowlr:

thx train... we know its no walk in the park regardless of what "theory" we lean on. really i was a bit frustrated with a few of my public plays yesterday and im trying to re-focus.

i was simply sharing a perspective that i think is hugely relevant to winning, but very difficult to maintain in terms of discipline.

lotta respect for you brutha... read ur posts regularly.

lets get it today... cha fkn ching!

No problems bro. Nice calls

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nitprowlr

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Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 1108

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 9:59 PM ET #36

jfly daddy... youre spot-on... notre dame was a prime example of the 'gift' that everyone wanted a piece of. it wasnt easy to pull the trigger on west va, but the results speak for themselves.

as for cal, ive played ucla several times recently for profit and theyre playing great ball... better than cal. but you'll see it wont be easy for them tonight. i believe that the bruins shouldve opened at (at least) a 2-point fav... so yes i smell a rat... or a golden bear that is.

can ucla win? yes for sure. i thinkin not tonight.

good luck brutha, im ridin with ya!

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nitprowlr

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Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 1108

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 10:04 PM ET #37

thx train ill continue to read and learn from ur posts. i look for bak n forth to help me, not argue... but perhaps constructive debate.

u know the deal, very often its so hard to fade the 'golden egg' because it seems sooo sweet at tip. that fkn arizona game pissed me off sooo fkn bad that i really took a long hard long at my way of thinkin and i think it helped.. at least today it did... nevertheless, its the discipline to keep playin the games that dont feel so good to play that will... in my mind... produce.

stay strong train! any leans or plays tonight? im on cal and the under, with the cal play really bein the one that supports my theory of the day lol! like i told another poster, ive been on ucla n theyre playin great. certainly good enough to win tonight... i just have that feelin...

good luck bro...

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jflydaddy

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Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 4599

Posted: Feb. 21, 2011 - 12:49 AM ET #38

nice pik bro i sent a friend request, would love to seee your picks daily, doubled up on the cal game took uclas 2nd half too nice pic bro your a

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jeremydraul

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Joined: Oct, 2010

Posts: 2442

Posted: Feb. 21, 2011 - 12:56 AM ET #39

Quote Originally Posted by nitprowlr:

show me one post with two of the three plays... plz

Had Purdue and Cal ML posted here.

Great call... wish I had seen this thread earlier to boost my confidence to maybe 2unit plays on those 3.

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nitprowlr

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Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 1108

Posted: Feb. 21, 2011 - 1:00 AM ET #40

thx jfl... had a pretty good day lookin to keep it up... i post my picks daily, usually a little after 6, but sometimes during the day. i do post every day though...

not locked in yet, but there's a 1:00 game tomorrow... central fla opened at +7 vs utep... line already up to utep -7.5...

... i have an early lean on central fla plus the points, but small... when theres only one early game, most like to jump on the fav, but i think central fla can hang n cover...

ill post before game time. still gotta cap the game a bit...

thx for the kudos brutha!

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Cover34

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2008

Posts: 7249

Posted: Feb. 21, 2011 - 1:59 AM ET #41

Good day for ya...

Bet with your wallet,not your heart

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Waxi

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Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 1310

Posted: Feb. 21, 2011 - 2:10 AM ET #42

Quote Originally Posted by nitprowlr:

I see people looking for value in a games line, as in 'vegas missed one', or 'I had this capped at a different number so I see value'... This will provide a winner here and there, but NOT over time.

the #1 rule for winning is...

be humble and know that vegas IS smarter than you!

Therefore when you think a line is better than it shoud be, trust what the linesmakers are telling you and not what you think the number should be!

The hardest part of this, of course, is that this is easier said than done... especially consistently. When you see a game that seems like a gift, you must listen to the linesmakers because the numbers are there for a reason.

Using yesterday as an example, Tennesse and Arizona fall into this category. Arizona should have clearly been -4-5ish while tennessee probably 6. The public rode both these 'gifts' and got trounced. Could both games have covered? Yes, of course. But over the long haul, playing these 'gifts' will lose you money! I, for one, was on both of the 'gifts' and it caused me to really check my discipline, which wavered on both games.

Taking this to heart, I'm listening to the linesmakers and riding with Vegas today... here's what I see...

Miami, Fla (line should've opened at -3.5ish but opened at a pick) --- my play (Clemson big play)

Ohio St (line should've opened at -2ish but opened at +1) --- my play (Purdue big play)

UCLA (line should've opened at -2.5ish but opened at pick) --- my play (California big play)

Not conicidentally, all three of the 'gifts' are top consensus plays. Could all three cover? Yes, of course, but over the long haul, if you (and I) can keep this perspective and not get sucked in, we will profit handsomely for sure...

Hoping I didnt jinx myself, but I see absolutely zero posts with these three plays. One here and there, but not all three, or even two of them for that matter. Like many other winning angles, they just don't seem like tasty plays at tipoff. I'm more concerned about how tasty they are at game's end.

Good luck fellas!

When you say, the line "should've" opened at such and such a number, are you using a power rating system to make that determination ot your own gut feel?