I've been able to post fairly easily this morning. I guess it's due to hardly any traffic yet. I always get hung up on reCaptcha. Didn't even have to prove I was not a robot this morning. Just slid right on thru.
There was no way I could communicate yesterday once the action heated up. If I could have I would have pulled you off the Quack Attack. I think they had some injured kids supposed to play yesterday. I haven't checked to verify that yet. I saw Oregon play twice. I lost with them at Houston. After 5 minutes I knew I had a loser. They got way behind, trailed the whole way. Somehow rallied real late, it was all Bol though. Now he is done for the year with a foot injury and entering the draft. My assessment was it was the worst Oregon team I had seen in years. I put them on my "go against" or pass list. They are one of the least athletic teams I have seen in P5 this year. I mean just weak, no quickness or speed. I couldn't believe it. Tried to press and it was futile. Bol is like a stick man. It will take him a while to develop. He will get manhandled in the NBA until he beefs up some. Their point guard is short and slow, couldn't beat me off the dribble. The 2 guard is a freshman, has potential, but he needs weight training during the offseason, probably still growing, looks physically immature yet. At the time they were playing a center that breathed air and that's about it, couldn't score if he was on the floor by himself. Maybe the kids returning make them more athletic.
The weeks I wasn't posting I got to the point of just blindly fading the Pac12. Didn't know a thing about the teams they were playing. Did really well to. That's over now unfortunately. Lol If you've noticed I'm mainly P5, Big East, American, and a few mid majors. Look it up in RedBandit's thread, I posted a 9-1 fade of the PAC 12 there in his thread. Bandit was a winning capper by the way, he was doing well. He was having the same issues I was, got fed up and quit posting. He has sent me some messages the past couple of days. I didn't see yesterday's in time, he had 2 winners, he makes very few plays but very consistent.
Some of the teams you play I have no clue about. Not knocking it just saying I don't know anything about those small schools. I'm not smart enough to keep up with all 353. I prefer teams I have seen. I'm sure in the Big Metro areas you can watch those games. But they ain't on Dircet TV satellite. Lol
Maybe I will do a small write up on a game today.
Bol. Ttyl
If you can't close you can't cover.
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I've been able to post fairly easily this morning. I guess it's due to hardly any traffic yet. I always get hung up on reCaptcha. Didn't even have to prove I was not a robot this morning. Just slid right on thru.
There was no way I could communicate yesterday once the action heated up. If I could have I would have pulled you off the Quack Attack. I think they had some injured kids supposed to play yesterday. I haven't checked to verify that yet. I saw Oregon play twice. I lost with them at Houston. After 5 minutes I knew I had a loser. They got way behind, trailed the whole way. Somehow rallied real late, it was all Bol though. Now he is done for the year with a foot injury and entering the draft. My assessment was it was the worst Oregon team I had seen in years. I put them on my "go against" or pass list. They are one of the least athletic teams I have seen in P5 this year. I mean just weak, no quickness or speed. I couldn't believe it. Tried to press and it was futile. Bol is like a stick man. It will take him a while to develop. He will get manhandled in the NBA until he beefs up some. Their point guard is short and slow, couldn't beat me off the dribble. The 2 guard is a freshman, has potential, but he needs weight training during the offseason, probably still growing, looks physically immature yet. At the time they were playing a center that breathed air and that's about it, couldn't score if he was on the floor by himself. Maybe the kids returning make them more athletic.
The weeks I wasn't posting I got to the point of just blindly fading the Pac12. Didn't know a thing about the teams they were playing. Did really well to. That's over now unfortunately. Lol If you've noticed I'm mainly P5, Big East, American, and a few mid majors. Look it up in RedBandit's thread, I posted a 9-1 fade of the PAC 12 there in his thread. Bandit was a winning capper by the way, he was doing well. He was having the same issues I was, got fed up and quit posting. He has sent me some messages the past couple of days. I didn't see yesterday's in time, he had 2 winners, he makes very few plays but very consistent.
Some of the teams you play I have no clue about. Not knocking it just saying I don't know anything about those small schools. I'm not smart enough to keep up with all 353. I prefer teams I have seen. I'm sure in the Big Metro areas you can watch those games. But they ain't on Dircet TV satellite. Lol
Indiana +9 (2x) / ML 0.5 .....Indiana has the pedigree to hang with Michigan by playing defense and getting buckets under the hoop...ranked 2 if FGs.....I expect a tought game on that might surprise the less rowdy Sunday crowd....I rarely fade Mich. at home
Wisconsin -2 (3x) .....not the type of team to lose 3 in a row and they will correct this on the road rather than at home with some good practices likely, to get them back on track. They were rolling along impressively beating a lot of good teams until this funk....Penn can be tricky at home but a commitment from Wisky on their defense should do the trick
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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2 Plays:
Indiana +9 (2x) / ML 0.5 .....Indiana has the pedigree to hang with Michigan by playing defense and getting buckets under the hoop...ranked 2 if FGs.....I expect a tought game on that might surprise the less rowdy Sunday crowd....I rarely fade Mich. at home
Wisconsin -2 (3x) .....not the type of team to lose 3 in a row and they will correct this on the road rather than at home with some good practices likely, to get them back on track. They were rolling along impressively beating a lot of good teams until this funk....Penn can be tricky at home but a commitment from Wisky on their defense should do the trick
Non -Basketball Play - Update.....going well at the half
5 UNITS ......Under Philip Rivers Passing Yds 253.5 !! I will pad my UNIT totals if I get these....
12-0 lead for Chargers at half should solidify this.....no long throws being attempted.....Jackson will be moving around like a bashed pinata in the second half....should help the Sacks prop....sitting at 2 now.....
Jackson sitting at only 2 pass completions....no way they let him breathe and play zone.....he is prone to mistakes like fumbles
Also:
L . Jackson Under 15.5 completions - 2 Units....
Over4.5 Sack (1x).....there were 7 in California a few weeks back and this is the playoffs......................all depends if they let Jackson to throw rather than use his legs in the 2nd half
Over 3 Receptions - Mike Williams (1x).....lots of passes coming his way for first downs or sideline passes.....not likely to cover in 2nd hf
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Non -Basketball Play - Update.....going well at the half
5 UNITS ......Under Philip Rivers Passing Yds 253.5 !! I will pad my UNIT totals if I get these....
12-0 lead for Chargers at half should solidify this.....no long throws being attempted.....Jackson will be moving around like a bashed pinata in the second half....should help the Sacks prop....sitting at 2 now.....
Jackson sitting at only 2 pass completions....no way they let him breathe and play zone.....he is prone to mistakes like fumbles
Also:
L . Jackson Under 15.5 completions - 2 Units....
Over4.5 Sack (1x).....there were 7 in California a few weeks back and this is the playoffs......................all depends if they let Jackson to throw rather than use his legs in the 2nd half
Over 3 Receptions - Mike Williams (1x).....lots of passes coming his way for first downs or sideline passes.....not likely to cover in 2nd hf
Bandit sent me a message that he was on the Pyrats too. He recommended I play George Mason -5.5. I see it opened 7 and is now 4.5. Looks to me like the Joes are playing GM and a few sharps are banging the Bonnie's hard. All I know is what I have read today. Looks like two teams going in opposite directions to me, but that's on paper. SB has had the injury bugs as well. I have not seen either team play.
You know anything about this bunch?
Bandit says both teams were on his play against list. But he says GM has recently "righted the ship". Looks to me like GM is tough at home and good defensively. 4;00 tip
If you can't close you can't cover.
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Bandit sent me a message that he was on the Pyrats too. He recommended I play George Mason -5.5. I see it opened 7 and is now 4.5. Looks to me like the Joes are playing GM and a few sharps are banging the Bonnie's hard. All I know is what I have read today. Looks like two teams going in opposite directions to me, but that's on paper. SB has had the injury bugs as well. I have not seen either team play.
You know anything about this bunch?
Bandit says both teams were on his play against list. But he says GM has recently "righted the ship". Looks to me like GM is tough at home and good defensively. 4;00 tip
Was going to make a play on the GM but backed up....mostly because they were ranked 2nd....and for sure 3rd best in preseason in their conference.....they are due to roll but I liked my other 2 plays better
BOL
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Was going to make a play on the GM but backed up....mostly because they were ranked 2nd....and for sure 3rd best in preseason in their conference.....they are due to roll but I liked my other 2 plays better
Texas Southern -7.5 (1x)....Sagarin has them 12 pts better team
Fairfield -3 (0.5x).....Sagarin has Niagara rated more than a full pt worse than Fairfield and I get home court....my gut was to take Niagara but lets see if this plays out or not
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Monday Degen plays...
Texas Southern -7.5 (1x)....Sagarin has them 12 pts better team
Fairfield -3 (0.5x).....Sagarin has Niagara rated more than a full pt worse than Fairfield and I get home court....my gut was to take Niagara but lets see if this plays out or not
Tuesday Plays....lots of selections.....only 2 sides.....teasers is too easy in my opinion tomorrow.... with 2 keys to take +5 pts on their lines and bundle with a bunch of plays
Iowa St. -3 (1x).....more talented on offense, but not defense
Brown -2.5 (3x)...think this is a big mistake from Vegas
5pt Teaser -3 play. Keys: Tenn teased to -2.5 / Evansville to +11 with:
2 UNITs:
- Illinois St -1
-Miss St. -1.5
-Minny +3.5
1 Unit
-Kentucky -7.5
-C. Mich. +5
-Wake F. +26
-Ball St. -6.5
-Purdue +13.5
-Oklahoma +11
-Alabama +11
-NC St. +5
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Tuesday Plays....lots of selections.....only 2 sides.....teasers is too easy in my opinion tomorrow.... with 2 keys to take +5 pts on their lines and bundle with a bunch of plays
Iowa St. -3 (1x).....more talented on offense, but not defense
Brown -2.5 (3x)...think this is a big mistake from Vegas
5pt Teaser -3 play. Keys: Tenn teased to -2.5 / Evansville to +11 with:
Great job yesterday! I tailed both of your picks and parlayed them with Clemson ML for a good day. Thank you for the work you put in! I plan on riding with you today as well!
One question for you:
My book only accepts 4 pt teasers. Do you think most of your teaser plays are good -1 point? (Especially Tenn & Evansville as I am getting Tenn -4 & Evansville +10)
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Great job yesterday! I tailed both of your picks and parlayed them with Clemson ML for a good day. Thank you for the work you put in! I plan on riding with you today as well!
One question for you:
My book only accepts 4 pt teasers. Do you think most of your teaser plays are good -1 point? (Especially Tenn & Evansville as I am getting Tenn -4 & Evansville +10)
i initially had brown on my list what makes ya like them so much?
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Tuesday Plays....lots of selections.....only 2 sides.....teasers is too easy in my opinion tomorrow.... with 2 keys to take +5 pts on their lines and bundle with a bunch of playsIowa St. -3 (1x).....more talented on offense, but not defenseBrown -2.5 (3x)...think this is a big mistake from Vegas5pt Teaser -3 play. Keys: Tenn teased to -2.5 / Evansville to +11 with:2 UNITs: - Illinois St -1-Miss St. -1.5-Minny +3.51 Unit -Kentucky -7.5-C. Mich. +5-Wake F. +26-Ball St. -6.5-Purdue +13.5-Oklahoma +11-Alabama +11-NC St. +5
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i like bowling green -3.5 and southern ill -2
i initially had brown on my list what makes ya like them so much?
Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Tuesday Plays....lots of selections.....only 2 sides.....teasers is too easy in my opinion tomorrow.... with 2 keys to take +5 pts on their lines and bundle with a bunch of playsIowa St. -3 (1x).....more talented on offense, but not defenseBrown -2.5 (3x)...think this is a big mistake from Vegas5pt Teaser -3 play. Keys: Tenn teased to -2.5 / Evansville to +11 with:2 UNITs: - Illinois St -1-Miss St. -1.5-Minny +3.51 Unit -Kentucky -7.5-C. Mich. +5-Wake F. +26-Ball St. -6.5-Purdue +13.5-Oklahoma +11-Alabama +11-NC St. +5
Great job yesterday! I tailed both of your picks and parlayed them with Clemson ML for a good day. Thank you for the work you put in! I plan on riding with you today as well!
One question for you:
My book only accepts 4 pt teasers. Do you think most of your teaser plays are good -1 point? (Especially Tenn & Evansville as I am getting Tenn -4 & Evansville +10)
Glad you did wel....just showing people what I do ....I can make money on a losing record.....its knowing how to pick your spots
I think a 4pt teaser could put some games at push or prevent a loss instead of a push with a 5pt......just do slightly less money on them.....obviously Evansville and Tenn are 2 games I love to cover outright but am playing the 5 pt advantage just in case I lose one by 1-2 pts because Vegas on some nights is unreal and spot on.
I don't expect to hit every one...but I HAVE TO HIT MY KEYS and not make them pushes or losses
GL....been a crazy day at work and I am only seeing this in the afternoon
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Quote Originally Posted by RedTitan19:
Great job yesterday! I tailed both of your picks and parlayed them with Clemson ML for a good day. Thank you for the work you put in! I plan on riding with you today as well!
One question for you:
My book only accepts 4 pt teasers. Do you think most of your teaser plays are good -1 point? (Especially Tenn & Evansville as I am getting Tenn -4 & Evansville +10)
Glad you did wel....just showing people what I do ....I can make money on a losing record.....its knowing how to pick your spots
I think a 4pt teaser could put some games at push or prevent a loss instead of a push with a 5pt......just do slightly less money on them.....obviously Evansville and Tenn are 2 games I love to cover outright but am playing the 5 pt advantage just in case I lose one by 1-2 pts because Vegas on some nights is unreal and spot on.
I don't expect to hit every one...but I HAVE TO HIT MY KEYS and not make them pushes or losses
GL....been a crazy day at work and I am only seeing this in the afternoon
I rate teams by stat vs stat first.......matchup....one skill vs other
Then, I look at road record vs how the home team plays
Then I look at who have they played in the power ratings..
Then I look at Jeff Sagarin ratings for how well a team is doing compared vs other teams based on who they played and how the conference strength is.....if I am close to Sagarin and I agree a team is stronger with everything considered....then I take a side but something else...
I have come to know about home teams and how could they play or not on their home court...year in and year out and I have a list of about 10-20 teams that I know if Sagarin and my ratings are close, I don't care about their records....they are better at home
Fairfield was an example last night....
Evansville is one of my all time home bias teams.....
Brown is developing a reputation as one of the few amazing road teams that I have noticed in the past 5 yrs.....it must be a coaching style....Iowas St. is another
I thought about making Iowa st my key at +2 after 5pt teasing but I would rather tease down a strong road opponent vs their competition than guess between Baylor and Iowa st.....Iowa St at their best should beat Baylor by 5 -15 pts on the road....Baylor at their best and IWST off a little on their shooting....its a pickem
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by binka34:
I rate teams by stat vs stat first.......matchup....one skill vs other
Then, I look at road record vs how the home team plays
Then I look at who have they played in the power ratings..
Then I look at Jeff Sagarin ratings for how well a team is doing compared vs other teams based on who they played and how the conference strength is.....if I am close to Sagarin and I agree a team is stronger with everything considered....then I take a side but something else...
I have come to know about home teams and how could they play or not on their home court...year in and year out and I have a list of about 10-20 teams that I know if Sagarin and my ratings are close, I don't care about their records....they are better at home
Fairfield was an example last night....
Evansville is one of my all time home bias teams.....
Brown is developing a reputation as one of the few amazing road teams that I have noticed in the past 5 yrs.....it must be a coaching style....Iowas St. is another
I thought about making Iowa st my key at +2 after 5pt teasing but I would rather tease down a strong road opponent vs their competition than guess between Baylor and Iowa st.....Iowa St at their best should beat Baylor by 5 -15 pts on the road....Baylor at their best and IWST off a little on their shooting....its a pickem
I couldn't post to my thread. Couldn't get past reCAPTCHA. Had problems all evening with this site. Took 10 minutes to transmit the above to here. Idk.
Bol
If you can't close you can't cover.
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I couldn't post to my thread. Couldn't get past reCAPTCHA. Had problems all evening with this site. Took 10 minutes to transmit the above to here. Idk.
Seton Hall -3 (3x)....Butler can lose bad on the road and Seton Hall can almost beat any top team on their home court
Miami +10.5 (1x)....rivalry....Miami can score so they will hang
Arizona -2.5 (1x)....not a strong year but they are good...Stanford is middling at best
Temple +1.5 (1x)...strong shooting home team who have shut down defense when called upon....Houston due to lose and Temple is very hard to keep a win streak going unless you are the Top 4 teams in all College ball....like my chances
Arkansas pk (0.5x)
Iowa +3 (0.5x)
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Wed Plays:
Seton Hall -3 (3x)....Butler can lose bad on the road and Seton Hall can almost beat any top team on their home court
Miami +10.5 (1x)....rivalry....Miami can score so they will hang
Arizona -2.5 (1x)....not a strong year but they are good...Stanford is middling at best
Temple +1.5 (1x)...strong shooting home team who have shut down defense when called upon....Houston due to lose and Temple is very hard to keep a win streak going unless you are the Top 4 teams in all College ball....like my chances
....thx
......Under Philip Rivers Passing Yds 253.5 !! I will pad my UNIT totals if I get these....
I tailed both of your picks and parlayed them with Clemson ML for a good day. 
Thank you for the work you put in! I plan on riding with you today as well! 
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