Important thing to remember.....if a tough Conference and non Conf. Nov-Dec sched.....ranking means that much more and a team with a good around numbers 150-90 is better than a lot of lighter conferences with padded stats
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Important thing to remember.....if a tough Conference and non Conf. Nov-Dec sched.....ranking means that much more and a team with a good around numbers 150-90 is better than a lot of lighter conferences with padded stats
The Committee did a nice job in setting up the brackets in my opinion...
Duke will have a tricky game with Miss St. or VTech.....and Sparty or Lousiville if they upset
My gut says Sparty but my head says Duke in the final 4
Virginia seems to have the easiest path on the other side
Tennessee should not have too much trouble with most teams but Purdue could have one big game in them and we see the same thing Auburn did today.....
If Tenn. gets through to this matchup with Virginia...stylistically, Tenn has the game to rattle Virginia with their size and quickness so I am liking Tennessee to come out of their side in the Final Four
On the other side... Gonzaga has been dealt a considerable foe in Florida St. but they are battle hardened vs this style of time from earlier in the year and know what to expect...plenty of upset material on the other side....who comes out? Who ever can take advantage of the FT line and hit their timely 3 pts....so your guess is good as mine....you have 4 teams in their who can play lockdown defense and Texas Tech is the best in that regard with an ode to Michigan if motivated and Nevada or Florida....Vermont and Buffalo are going to get juiced from a regional crowd...so throw a dart in this section.....either way, Zaga is well equipped and look for them to slide through this side to the Final 4..
On the other side....UNC will get tested by Utah St. but will pass and I don't see an Auburn team winning the rebound battle so the only way UNC gets upset is a unreal shooting Tigers team....with UNC;s size and speed on the perimeter...don't see it....the other part has some loose teams for Kentucky to navigate so that is not a sure thing for them but they are battle hardened and can play any style.....did the Tenn loss hurt their confidence? ....it won't matter because when they play UNC.....there will be too much to overcome whomever comes out of here....UNC in the Final 4
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
The Committee did a nice job in setting up the brackets in my opinion...
Duke will have a tricky game with Miss St. or VTech.....and Sparty or Lousiville if they upset
My gut says Sparty but my head says Duke in the final 4
Virginia seems to have the easiest path on the other side
Tennessee should not have too much trouble with most teams but Purdue could have one big game in them and we see the same thing Auburn did today.....
If Tenn. gets through to this matchup with Virginia...stylistically, Tenn has the game to rattle Virginia with their size and quickness so I am liking Tennessee to come out of their side in the Final Four
On the other side... Gonzaga has been dealt a considerable foe in Florida St. but they are battle hardened vs this style of time from earlier in the year and know what to expect...plenty of upset material on the other side....who comes out? Who ever can take advantage of the FT line and hit their timely 3 pts....so your guess is good as mine....you have 4 teams in their who can play lockdown defense and Texas Tech is the best in that regard with an ode to Michigan if motivated and Nevada or Florida....Vermont and Buffalo are going to get juiced from a regional crowd...so throw a dart in this section.....either way, Zaga is well equipped and look for them to slide through this side to the Final 4..
On the other side....UNC will get tested by Utah St. but will pass and I don't see an Auburn team winning the rebound battle so the only way UNC gets upset is a unreal shooting Tigers team....with UNC;s size and speed on the perimeter...don't see it....the other part has some loose teams for Kentucky to navigate so that is not a sure thing for them but they are battle hardened and can play any style.....did the Tenn loss hurt their confidence? ....it won't matter because when they play UNC.....there will be too much to overcome whomever comes out of here....UNC in the Final 4
Alright....so I don't like how I ended up with 4 x#1 seeds so here is what I think happens and that is my end of discussion:
It takes an older team to knock of Duke with poise....like UNC or Tennessee.........but on their side, no one fits the bill
Duke makes the final 4 and plays Tennessee who I just realize are not a #1 and we get the Zion show vs the Schofield show that they are itching to show and the older one gets outhustled, but not outmuscled.....Barnes changes his strategy to keep Duke to the outside and they bang Duke down low and from the wing forcing foul trouble all day long and Schofield to be a factor and Zion to be forced out.....if its not Schofield, its Tenn outside shooting over the smallish and selfish Duke guards....they are not strong on dee
Tennessee is in the final vs UNC and UNC takes it all in a classic!
Gonzaga could get upset by a defensive strategy or FSU/Marquette/Ttech speed......this might be Few's best team ever so I doubt it....buy you never know....Michigan is battle hardened and well coached and FSU as well so pick one of those to do that if you are thinking Zags are over- rated
UNC will not be bothered by any team on the other side because they are either young our not on the same level as UNC although, Auburn has some age and hot shooting ability.....
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Alright....so I don't like how I ended up with 4 x#1 seeds so here is what I think happens and that is my end of discussion:
It takes an older team to knock of Duke with poise....like UNC or Tennessee.........but on their side, no one fits the bill
Duke makes the final 4 and plays Tennessee who I just realize are not a #1 and we get the Zion show vs the Schofield show that they are itching to show and the older one gets outhustled, but not outmuscled.....Barnes changes his strategy to keep Duke to the outside and they bang Duke down low and from the wing forcing foul trouble all day long and Schofield to be a factor and Zion to be forced out.....if its not Schofield, its Tenn outside shooting over the smallish and selfish Duke guards....they are not strong on dee
Tennessee is in the final vs UNC and UNC takes it all in a classic!
Gonzaga could get upset by a defensive strategy or FSU/Marquette/Ttech speed......this might be Few's best team ever so I doubt it....buy you never know....Michigan is battle hardened and well coached and FSU as well so pick one of those to do that if you are thinking Zags are over- rated
UNC will not be bothered by any team on the other side because they are either young our not on the same level as UNC although, Auburn has some age and hot shooting ability.....
Now, I look at the lines......best lines that jump out but will do some more digging:
Temple +3.5. 2x....whoa, crazy line swing for a team in Belmont who lost their Centre and one of their best scorers and rebounders?....they beat Houston and almost Cinci and have been playing good teams every 2 weeks...battle hardened!
St. Johns +1 1x.....coinflip game and stronger conference...really like Shamarie to take over a the game and win it if need be....my ratings have STJ way better statistically
Louisville -5 1x....Minny will have issues with competitiveness of the Cardinals and outside shot making if need be
Vermont +10.5 1x ....could put a scare if FSU takes them lightly
Northeastern +8 3x ....fave line already....outright upset in my opinion
Florida/Nevada Under 132.5 2x....battle of the press means both teams should be under 67 pts and a tight game!
St. Mary's +6 ..1x....dangerous game for Villanova as defending champs....upset is not out of the question here
Montana +15.5 1x....this team can ball and Michigan are not one to run up scores so I see Montana hanging around and it helps the game is somewhat close drive
Seton Hall +3 2x....fave dog team to bet going against the Terriers? It doesn't get any better than that!!!
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Best advantage of site:
Vermont....in Hartford
Cincinnatti....game in Columbus Ohio
Villanova ....Hartford is not that far
UCIRVINE....playing in San Jose
Now, I look at the lines......best lines that jump out but will do some more digging:
Temple +3.5. 2x....whoa, crazy line swing for a team in Belmont who lost their Centre and one of their best scorers and rebounders?....they beat Houston and almost Cinci and have been playing good teams every 2 weeks...battle hardened!
St. Johns +1 1x.....coinflip game and stronger conference...really like Shamarie to take over a the game and win it if need be....my ratings have STJ way better statistically
Louisville -5 1x....Minny will have issues with competitiveness of the Cardinals and outside shot making if need be
Vermont +10.5 1x ....could put a scare if FSU takes them lightly
Northeastern +8 3x ....fave line already....outright upset in my opinion
Florida/Nevada Under 132.5 2x....battle of the press means both teams should be under 67 pts and a tight game!
St. Mary's +6 ..1x....dangerous game for Villanova as defending champs....upset is not out of the question here
Montana +15.5 1x....this team can ball and Michigan are not one to run up scores so I see Montana hanging around and it helps the game is somewhat close drive
Seton Hall +3 2x....fave dog team to bet going against the Terriers? It doesn't get any better than that!!!
Friday leans....lets see what happens first with the above:
UCIRVINE.....if Wade were playing...they would be my darkhorse
Wisconsin.....Ducks on a roll but just getting there might have been more of that goal whereas Wisky is hungry this year compared to last
Utah St. -2.5. 3x ....something about this team that really gets me fired up.....have to book this line now....if it drops near game time, might double up
UNC ....romp by 30-40 pts likely
VTECH....have the ability to smother the team, that likes to smother.....lots of speed and motor on the Hokies team!
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Friday leans....lets see what happens first with the above:
UCIRVINE.....if Wade were playing...they would be my darkhorse
Wisconsin.....Ducks on a roll but just getting there might have been more of that goal whereas Wisky is hungry this year compared to last
Utah St. -2.5. 3x ....something about this team that really gets me fired up.....have to book this line now....if it drops near game time, might double up
UNC ....romp by 30-40 pts likely
VTECH....have the ability to smother the team, that likes to smother.....lots of speed and motor on the Hokies team!
Colorado is rated higher and they are playing at higher....so who do you take?
Colorado -4.5 3x playing at elevation.....these NIT/CIT,etc games...for years, home team advantage is gold like earlier in the year like you are betting homecourt advantage in the Non-Conference sched...you still have to pick your spots though
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Tuesday:
I have a ton of respect for Dayton....but....
Colorado is rated higher and they are playing at higher....so who do you take?
Colorado -4.5 3x playing at elevation.....these NIT/CIT,etc games...for years, home team advantage is gold like earlier in the year like you are betting homecourt advantage in the Non-Conference sched...you still have to pick your spots though
I really like Arizona St. and they way they play.....and this is a home game with a little elevation.....I like the OVER.....ST.J can ball a good total when in a tight game
We might even get OT....these teams are last shot potential all over them....AZST 3 pters and Shamarie's finish OVER 152.5 2x
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
I really like Arizona St. and they way they play.....and this is a home game with a little elevation.....I like the OVER.....ST.J can ball a good total when in a tight game
We might even get OT....these teams are last shot potential all over them....AZST 3 pters and Shamarie's finish OVER 152.5 2x
My impressions of the first round.....there are a ton of teams playing possum in the last month of the season.....not wanting to showcase their talent...having opponents doubt them...etc.
The coach could be the reason for this .....trying different things, his rotations, etc...
Or, the middling to better teams are beat up from the grind. The small conference teams are feasting on this + with the motivation of being there. As we go through each round, .....the same thing happens every year,.....the real value comes with the better teams and the cinderellas fall by the wayside
I am being very cautious going forward
BOL
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
My impressions of the first round.....there are a ton of teams playing possum in the last month of the season.....not wanting to showcase their talent...having opponents doubt them...etc.
The coach could be the reason for this .....trying different things, his rotations, etc...
Or, the middling to better teams are beat up from the grind. The small conference teams are feasting on this + with the motivation of being there. As we go through each round, .....the same thing happens every year,.....the real value comes with the better teams and the cinderellas fall by the wayside
Saturday: DOUBLE UP IN EFFECT....if I string 3 losses = -14 Units!
Play #1 Kentucky -5 2x .....I get why people like Wofford but I believe that KY has the makings of a final four team while W does not but they could pose some issues for teams....Ky is lightning quick and can play lockdown dee on the perimeter so W will have some issues getting off the 3 pt and dealing with Ky athleticism in the paint
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Saturday: DOUBLE UP IN EFFECT....if I string 3 losses = -14 Units!
Play #1 Kentucky -5 2x .....I get why people like Wofford but I believe that KY has the makings of a final four team while W does not but they could pose some issues for teams....Ky is lightning quick and can play lockdown dee on the perimeter so W will have some issues getting off the 3 pt and dealing with Ky athleticism in the paint
Saturday: DOUBLE UP IN EFFECT....if I string 3 losses = -14 Units!
Play #1 Kentucky -5 2x .....I get why people like Wofford but I believe that KY has the makings of a final four team while W does not but they could pose some issues for teams....Ky is lightning quick and can play lockdown dee on the perimeter so W will have some issues getting off the 3 pt and dealing with Ky athleticism in the paint
Same thing for FSU vs Murray St.....same write up but will make it official in a while
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
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Quote Originally Posted by Last2thirst:
Saturday: DOUBLE UP IN EFFECT....if I string 3 losses = -14 Units!
Play #1 Kentucky -5 2x .....I get why people like Wofford but I believe that KY has the makings of a final four team while W does not but they could pose some issues for teams....Ky is lightning quick and can play lockdown dee on the perimeter so W will have some issues getting off the 3 pt and dealing with Ky athleticism in the paint
Same thing for FSU vs Murray St.....same write up but will make it official in a while
I think Iowa hangs in vs. Tennessee. Tennessee hasn’t impressed me lately. Are you buying low so to speak?
You raise a debatable point....but here is my response/reasoning:
Tenn set a goal of Conf final: - check
Tenn has 3 very dominant capable seniors who are very goal oriented - check
Tenn set a goal to get to Final Four first: in process
Tenn set a goal to make it to the Championship game after: in process
If you noticed, a lot of games that have spreads 4-8 pts, these games are rarely falling into that range and turning into blowouts for either said....fave or upset
Do I see a hot/cold Iowa team upsetting Tenn? NO
Do I see a senior capable team digging in and playing aggressive offense and shutdown defense if Iowa hangs around? YES
I say the trend continues....Tenn wins by 10+
BOL
I have TENN rated as my #3-5 team in this tourney based on the senior lineup, talent, strength and motivation. Iowa appears nowhere in my Top 30
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Quote Originally Posted by alldub:
I think Iowa hangs in vs. Tennessee. Tennessee hasn’t impressed me lately. Are you buying low so to speak?
You raise a debatable point....but here is my response/reasoning:
Tenn set a goal of Conf final: - check
Tenn has 3 very dominant capable seniors who are very goal oriented - check
Tenn set a goal to get to Final Four first: in process
Tenn set a goal to make it to the Championship game after: in process
If you noticed, a lot of games that have spreads 4-8 pts, these games are rarely falling into that range and turning into blowouts for either said....fave or upset
Do I see a hot/cold Iowa team upsetting Tenn? NO
Do I see a senior capable team digging in and playing aggressive offense and shutdown defense if Iowa hangs around? YES
I say the trend continues....Tenn wins by 10+
BOL
I have TENN rated as my #3-5 team in this tourney based on the senior lineup, talent, strength and motivation. Iowa appears nowhere in my Top 30
Tennessee put their time in the weight room and speed training in the off season....saw that early in the year and thats what is going to get them to the Final four likely....along with their talent. They can do as they please in the paint and when fighting for a rebound
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Its early but...the game seems to be boys vs. men
Tennessee put their time in the weight room and speed training in the off season....saw that early in the year and thats what is going to get them to the Final four likely....along with their talent. They can do as they please in the paint and when fighting for a rebound
They got back a key player and they are sic on defense....maybe one of the 4 best shutdown defensively aggressive man on man sets in the country....
Liberty will have to shoot lights out and from the games I watched this year, VT is tenacious on the key and switch off of screens really really well so Liberty should have pressure in their face all game
The only team that is Top 50 that I see that they played who can bring pressure and tenacity at that level was Georgetown and they lost by 10 pts.....maybe Alabama is another that could put pressure on the ball and they lost by 9. VTECH is a 5-7 pt spread on those teams so I see this spread being a little low
Vtech lost to FSU by 2....beat a pressure team with good defense in St. L by 13 pts and if we look at the year, VTECH comes out of the toughest conference in NCAAB and THEY BEAT DUKE BY 5 RECENTLY and held NC ST. to 47-24 when they turned up the defense....I saw that game as was mightily impressed.....they beat PURDUE in a mono e mono gunslinger game 89 -83 so Liberty is not in the same class
Its now an official play:
VTECH -9 2x.....double up in effect
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Next game I am eyeing......Virginia Tech -9
They got back a key player and they are sic on defense....maybe one of the 4 best shutdown defensively aggressive man on man sets in the country....
Liberty will have to shoot lights out and from the games I watched this year, VT is tenacious on the key and switch off of screens really really well so Liberty should have pressure in their face all game
The only team that is Top 50 that I see that they played who can bring pressure and tenacity at that level was Georgetown and they lost by 10 pts.....maybe Alabama is another that could put pressure on the ball and they lost by 9. VTECH is a 5-7 pt spread on those teams so I see this spread being a little low
Vtech lost to FSU by 2....beat a pressure team with good defense in St. L by 13 pts and if we look at the year, VTECH comes out of the toughest conference in NCAAB and THEY BEAT DUKE BY 5 RECENTLY and held NC ST. to 47-24 when they turned up the defense....I saw that game as was mightily impressed.....they beat PURDUE in a mono e mono gunslinger game 89 -83 so Liberty is not in the same class
Pay attention to the 4 games and compare to Huskies results....and you will see that IF MOTIVATED....UNC can beat any team in the country and coach Williams will notice that they lost to 3 teams that they beat.....so I don't expect UNC to feel very motivated but I know that when they play loose, they are deadly and defensively are ranked 28th but thats from playing in the PAC 10 so see what happens when they play someone good who can rebound in the EAST coast?
Vegas has this line right.....Wash rebounding is terrible and UNC is the best in the country in my opinion so that is how you judge whether the line is right....
I lean UNC as the line creeps down below -11 (no play for me...but one is coming on UNC soon)
Proving is hard. Talk is easy.
0
Game coming up....WASH vs UNC
Huskies lost to VTECH by 12 on neutral court
They lost to GONZAGA by 2
They lost to AUBURN by 22
UNC lost to Michigan by 17
UNC beat GONZAGA by 13
UNC lost to Kentucky by 8
UNC lost to Louisville by 21
UNC BEAT VTECH by 21
UNC BEAT DUKE by 16
UNC BEAT FSU by 18
Pay attention to the 4 games and compare to Huskies results....and you will see that IF MOTIVATED....UNC can beat any team in the country and coach Williams will notice that they lost to 3 teams that they beat.....so I don't expect UNC to feel very motivated but I know that when they play loose, they are deadly and defensively are ranked 28th but thats from playing in the PAC 10 so see what happens when they play someone good who can rebound in the EAST coast?
Vegas has this line right.....Wash rebounding is terrible and UNC is the best in the country in my opinion so that is how you judge whether the line is right....
I lean UNC as the line creeps down below -11 (no play for me...but one is coming on UNC soon)
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