Last2thirst Conference /Tourney Picks

TIER #1 - pedigree/style to win  it all

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Kansas, Michigan St., Gonzaga, NC State, Florida State

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Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Nevada, Ohio St. Mississippi St.

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Houston, TCU, Maryland, Wisconsin, Clemson, Kentucky,  Louisville, Seton Hall, Marquette,St. John's, Indiana

Texas  Tech ,  Nebraska

Kansas

Michigan St.

Wisconsin

Cincinnati

Arizona

Notre Dame

Syracuse

Xavier

Florida

Miami, San  Fran, Fresno, Toledo, Texas, UCONN, Ole Miss,  Arizona St., Auburn, Georgetown

Temple, UCF, Murray St., Pennsylvania, Charleston, VCU

Toledo is one of the  best home teams that I follow over the years...I have seen them win on their home court vs stronger teams  for years

I expect a blowout or close  win for Toledo....leave a 10-20 % chance Ball St  wins by 1-2 pts

Ball state is a nice team. To me this is a spot based on what BET365 has on offer. Make this play if you can do it with  your betting  channel:

Toledo winning margin  1-2 pts  win  +1000  (2 Units)

Ball St. winning margin  same..........+1100  (1 Unit)

Toledo winning margin   3-6 pts win  +500   (2 Units)

Toledo -4.5    (8 Units) 

I can afford to do this  so  I will

I can actually get on this site easier today. Must be because of low traffic, no CFB and a slim CBB card. I've been having real issues with that. I'm not on a home computer. I'm presently in a real remote area and the only thing I brought was an old iPad. This site just keeps reloading, couldn't even get on during the peak action Bowl days and busy CBB days. It sometimes takes 5-10 minutes just to exit, holds on to me like Gorilla Glue. I can go to other sites quickly and maneuver fine. Idk, maybe it's just this iPad.

Anyway, I saw your thread. You have obviously put some time into it and I appreciate your views.I wish there was more of this in this forum. Hope you don't mind if I throw my 2 cents in here. I'm not being critical or trying to be offensive. Just going to take the liberty to share some of my perspectives and opinions. It doesn't mean I'm right or your wrong. Different eyes see different things.

I'm going to do this in short bursts so I don't lose what I write.

Funky....good to hear from someone living in Uni-bomber land off the grid distances away from reality....remember that  dude....haha and I am not talking the poker player.

However, I'll say that when the Zags get 6'11" F Killian Tillie and G Geno Crandall back they could be better than the Devils. They have already beat them once without these two. Don't forget Tillie was the preseason fav to win WCC POY and an All American choice. He is a good post player, strong on the glass, shoots the 3 ball well, very versatile. Could be the best frontcourt in the country with Rui and Clarke. Teams won't be able to sit on Norwell, and he is a great spot up shooter from deep, not so much off the dribble. Kispert can stroke it from 3 pretty good too. Crandall can take some of the load off Perkins. Obviously, the Zags depth increases with these two additions. 

From what I have read both are going to play some tomorrow. Probably take them both a few weeks to get in game shape and back in sync. I read today where Tillie said his ankle is not 100% yet.

You listed 5 in your Tier 1, here are mine, in order of preference:

Duke

Zaga (with Tillie and Crandall)

Mich St

Nevada

Michigan

Tier 2

UVA 

UNC

Kansas 

Tennessee

Iowa St

Tier 3

Miss St

TCU

VA Tech

Bol on your Rockets play Thirsty. 

Don't sleep on NC State  and Tennessee....Vols are a super strong, athletic  and  hungry team who hit the  weight room together  all offseason  and are dialed  in!!

Statistically, NCState  can  play dee and they  can play  topshelf  offense as we  witnessed  again  last night....with 8 min to go...they cranked  it up  and used  their dee  to put a vise  grip on Miami....who as  you know, are  a mean  home team!

Good to know about the Zags  though....no  one has had a tougher  schedule than  them or Louisville so far and speaking of which, they  are a crazy sleeper  for me....check out who they have beat!!! I don't think anyone has  that resume yet!....maybe the  Zags

Who do you draft first.....Zion or RJ

I know which one is stronger.....pound for pound.....haha and therefore I doubt will get injured in the NBA.

By  the way, Zion is a freak and really reminds me of Shaq in his first yr at  LSU......and can move even more than any big I have seen in a while.

Curious to hear your answer......you are a new  NBA team...which do you take

Caroline is a beast in the middle for 6'7". Dude knows how to play, how to score and get to the line. They are 35-2 when he gets a double double.

Their man D is unreal, they use some zone principles. They let cutters go to the next man because their positions are so interchangeable. They have guards that can defend the post. They get off screens seamlessly, as good as any team does. Lots of help D, they rotate really well.

I couldn't get it posted by I went 4 ways with them Large vs Utah St the other night. FG -9.5, -5-5 1st H, under 151.5, and under 71 1st H. 72-49. Total domination on both ends. They have the 6th biggest rebound differential in the country because they all get to the glass.

They are at the Pit tomorrow. I have done real well with the Lobos as home dogs thru the years and never play against them there. Always a big home crowd. But I have got burnt their twice recently. This NM team has some issues. I don't see the Lobos full court press rattling the Wolfpack, everybody can handle the ball. Still, I wouldn't want to lay a gang of points there.

I gotcha on Tennessee and NC St. I have the Vols at 9 and the Pack at 16. Both will be very tough outs at home.

Ok, let me think about that Zion and RJ choice for a second. Ok, I just did. Give me King Zion without question. To have that kind of size and strength, and to be able to move like he does with that explosive jumping ability is unreal. RJ is not a great outside shooter, maybe he will get better in time, but he has been inconsistent from distance. Also forces to many shots. His frame is a bit slight to be a slasher in that league, but he is still young and could develop more physically.

I played Texas and under a while ago. Gonna try to post it shortly with a write up later on which will basically say the same thing I have been saying the last 13 games. I don't think the # will come down. Opened 6.5 and 7's are popping up everywhere now

Also going to play the Cyclones at the Hilton. It's ISU -1 currently. Maybe it goes to pick. 

You like Bama?

I played the Bruins @Westwood

Funk, when you look at my Tiers....its interchange-able what rank they are. so behind Duke, the 4 that are there are anywhere between 2-5 rank....same in the other Tiers.

When a Tier 1 or 2 loses a game, they don't go down unless its a bad beat or a home loss by over 6 pts.....might prove they are phoney or can't handle the big games.

My rankings are designed for who I think will do well in March Madness likely....I know what stats cut it most yrs and have done an analysis year in and year out.....it usually plays out in a one and done scenario like MM.....so when you see my rankings...it means mostly they are rated high as a one and done team.....and with that said....I would elevate Iowa St., Nebraska, Nevada and Texas Tech way higher if they can do what they do on the road....rather than home courts and neutral sites because its under intense home court pressure that you really learn about visiting teams prowess..

Nebraska is provening so far and Texas Tech has the best defense in the country which could be amazing at MM time  if they shoot well along with that especially at FT line....Nevada is on my radar to elevate...no doubt...want them to prove me wrong ON THE ROAD  from here on in

Zion will be over-exuberant   and injury prone.....the bigs in the NBA will chew him up for breakfast until he is 25 or so.....unless he gets  even  bigger and keeps his hops in the NBA....more than likely he will but I have watched enough of him to realize that he doesn't care about his body from the top of the key to the circle under the bucket and he will get injured as a result.....but ya....would be legit #1 but how much more upside?

R.J. is stronger than Zion pound for pound....did you see first game when he shoved Zion with one hand under the hoop after a big play and Zion wanted to pound chests....haha...Zion went flying back and the look on his face....crowd saw it and whole ESPN crew couldn't stop playing it....I knew then whats inside him....his dad was one tough hombre on the streets of Toronto....legend and  he is not in the Wiggins mold at all....more in the Pippen mold but tougher inside if thats possible? ....might elevate him higher once his shot hits  8-10 regularly but going insiide, he is money! Zion has a bit of LeBron in him with his passing no doubt!

At Nicky...thanks.... I hope Funk joins me....got a wealth of knowledge and powers of observation....and I hope he has satellite tv in the 'outback'...haha

WIll update the season....have work to do! Today is Double Up Sat.

Early losing plays will have their Double-up partner for more Units...this worked well early in the year....trust the capping and it should do the same for Conference play. I have a juicy play at 5PM but may hold that as a double up......fading an overrated team to go with an amazing homecourt and rivalry!

Early games:

Butler-Crei Over 149.5  (2x)...Both teams  can jack the 3 or go inside  and Iike the  fact that Butler can hit the FT well....crazy Saturday building  and Butler always gets into the offensive rhythm in conference play....Creighton has the ability  to get back in game  with 3's which I like to run up the second half total too.....Butler embarrassed last yr by 23 so I expect lots of offensive focus....total went to 163 last yr

(Double Up game is Kansas-Iowa St. for 4 Units)

Notre Dame  +1.5  (1x) DUP = TBD......Syracuse are ranked 322 in 3pt and yes that was a fluke that they beat OSU shooting 46% that day from outside......ND can breakdown a 2-3 zone easily and can rebound ....great coach and homecourt.....why aren't they fave?

Will add more later.....late getting off  the mark here  due to flare up of arthritis last night....BOL 

Pitt +9.5           home dog  (1x)

Alabama +4.5 home dog   (0.5x)

Oklahoma  -9.5   beatdown......will save for later....still capping!

Back later....

I sided with Pitt on their defense and the fact UNC is up and down on their travels and tend not to play good defense on the road

Let see what the second half brings....

Md....tends to hammer weak teams at home by 30+ if you check their schedule so far and they haven't played at home much....good defense  and this is curious why line is dropping

DON'T! Oklahoma can flat out ball and they will not care if they beatdown the Cowboys......scratching my head why this line is going down.  Did anyone notice that Cowboys manhandled them last yr by 13.....big revenge....different year  and better  Sooner team

Oklahoma 11-1 ATS on the year!

Their defense/rebounding  will suffocate the  Cowboys.....