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    All Forums | College Basketball

    Kansas ML

    12 Next Last»
    easymoney1313
    tenplay
    moosie00
    Neef
    peterparker
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    12 Next Last»
     
    easymoney1313
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 5:15 AM ET #1

    someone try to convince me not to bet the house on KU tonight. Bill self does not lose back to back games!! Kansas has more talent. More experience. Kansas is in my opinion a top 10 team. Texas is bad. They just got dogged by Georgia.  What am I missing? The big 12 still goes through Lawrence, Kansas. Give me more talent and a hall of fame coach with a pissed off team vs Shaka smart any day of the week. Let’s ride

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    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

    someone try to convince me not to bet the house on KU tonight. Bill self does not lose back to back games!! Kansas has more talent. More experience. Kansas is in my opinion a top 10 team. Texas is bad. They just got dogged by Georgia.  What am I missing? The big 12 still goes through Lawrence, Kansas. Give me more talent and a hall of fame coach with a pissed off team vs Shaka smart any day of the week. Let’s ride

     
    tenplay
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 9:47 AM ET #2

    Gotta agree.  Kansas will come out determined to get rid of the bad taste of the Kentucky loss.  Kansas has been playing a lot of close games recently and so -1 is really attractive and should rise by gametime tonight.  Other than playing at home, Texas does not have any advantages.  Sometimes it's best not to out-think yourself.  

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    Gotta agree.  Kansas will come out determined to get rid of the bad taste of the Kentucky loss.  Kansas has been playing a lot of close games recently and so -1 is really attractive and should rise by gametime tonight.  Other than playing at home, Texas does not have any advantages.  Sometimes it's best not to out-think yourself.  

     
    moosie00
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 10:28 AM ET #3

    now you can get +1. interesting
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    now you can get +1. interesting
     
    Neef
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 10:32 AM ET #4

    Kansas is easy money I would make it a ten play game so long i dont get moosed. 
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    Kansas is easy money I would make it a ten play game so long i dont get moosed. 
     
    peterparker
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 10:54 AM ET #5

    Kansas has lost all but one of five true road games.
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    Kansas has lost all but one of five true road games.
     
    dukedude2019
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 11:08 AM ET #6

    Quote Originally Posted by peterparker:

    Kansas has lost all but one of five true road games.

    This is a big part why I would stay away from Kansas tonight. Also, Jaxson Hayes has come on strong lately and im not sure KU has an answer for him. Hes not a duo like PJ Washington and Reid Travis but KU really struggled to defend those big men. 

    Texas is no easy place to play and I think KU is going to have shoot lights out in order to win this one. BOL! 
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    Quote Originally Posted by peterparker:

    Kansas has lost all but one of five true road games.

    This is a big part why I would stay away from Kansas tonight. Also, Jaxson Hayes has come on strong lately and im not sure KU has an answer for him. Hes not a duo like PJ Washington and Reid Travis but KU really struggled to defend those big men. 

    Texas is no easy place to play and I think KU is going to have shoot lights out in order to win this one. BOL! 
     
    NYMoneyTeam
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 12:06 PM ET #7

    Kansas going down today 

    Am rolling with Texas -1 or ML
    Let's Get Paid
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    Kansas going down today 

    Am rolling with Texas -1 or ML
     
    MoPinkie
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 12:29 PM ET #8

    KU opened as favorite -1 and quickly flipped to Tex-1 and now sits @ -1.5. I'd say watch line and wait til just before game time. IF you like Kansas I would stay away UNLESS game goes to a pick or KU becomes fave. 
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    KU opened as favorite -1 and quickly flipped to Tex-1 and now sits @ -1.5. I'd say watch line and wait til just before game time. IF you like Kansas I would stay away UNLESS game goes to a pick or KU becomes fave. 
     
    Bmarlin
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 1:41 PM ET #9

    Home unranked favorites versus ranked opponents are covering at a very high percentage. Look at the trend. Like 80%ish. 
    Fishy lines tend to be that way for a reason. 
    Good luck either way. 
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    Home unranked favorites versus ranked opponents are covering at a very high percentage. Look at the trend. Like 80%ish. 
    Fishy lines tend to be that way for a reason. 
    Good luck either way. 
     
    easymoney1313
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 1:47 PM ET #10

    Thank for everyone’s input think I’m just going to save it and live bet Kansas. 

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    Thank for everyone’s input think I’m just going to save it and live bet Kansas. 

     
    ChrisNYC
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 1:48 PM ET #11

    personally, I wouldnt touch Kansas , especially after that line movement

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    personally, I wouldnt touch Kansas , especially after that line movement

     
    easymoney1313
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 1:50 PM ET #12

    Quote Originally Posted by peterparker:

    Kansas has lost all but one of five true road games.
    while this is true and concerning, that have also beat Tennessee and Michigan state at neutral sites 

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    Quote Originally Posted by peterparker:

    Kansas has lost all but one of five true road games.
    while this is true and concerning, that have also beat Tennessee and Michigan state at neutral sites 

     
    Flipit
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 2:01 PM ET #13

    Short line, revenge game from 2 weeks ago.

    Texas ML is the play 
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    Short line, revenge game from 2 weeks ago.

    Texas ML is the play 
     
    Bmarlin
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 2:02 PM ET #14

    When the Purdue Mich st line did something similar I took Purdue and came back live +12.5Mich st and ended up w a middle. My plan will be to take Tx and if I can get a 8.5 point or better middle with Kansas go for that. 
    And if Kansas goes wire to wire on to the next game. 

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    When the Purdue Mich st line did something similar I took Purdue and came back live +12.5Mich st and ended up w a middle. My plan will be to take Tx and if I can get a 8.5 point or better middle with Kansas go for that. 
    And if Kansas goes wire to wire on to the next game. 

     
    KC_4_LIFE
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 2:06 PM ET #15

    Lolololol you really think THIS KU team has more talent that Texas? Give me a break, you’re just looking at the name on the front of the jersey. This game has Texas written all over it. It took a career high from Marcus Garrett (not a scorer) to beat Texas by 2 at the fieldhouse. Texas is 10-9 but many of those losses were very close. The problem with KU, they’re essentially playing a four guard lineup without any shooters. Vick has been good this year from deep but he’s still ver streaky. Obviously, everything goes through Lawson but there’s so much he has to do for this team to win. It wouldn’t surprise me if KU won because Bill Self clowns on Shaka Smart, but to say KU has more talent and can’t lose back to back games is absurd.
    Don’t let the last play affect the next play
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    Lolololol you really think THIS KU team has more talent that Texas? Give me a break, you’re just looking at the name on the front of the jersey. This game has Texas written all over it. It took a career high from Marcus Garrett (not a scorer) to beat Texas by 2 at the fieldhouse. Texas is 10-9 but many of those losses were very close. The problem with KU, they’re essentially playing a four guard lineup without any shooters. Vick has been good this year from deep but he’s still ver streaky. Obviously, everything goes through Lawson but there’s so much he has to do for this team to win. It wouldn’t surprise me if KU won because Bill Self clowns on Shaka Smart, but to say KU has more talent and can’t lose back to back games is absurd.
     
    easymoney1313
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 2:21 PM ET #16

    Quote Originally Posted by KC_4_LIFE:

    Lolololol you really think THIS KU team has more talent that Texas? Give me a break, you’re just looking at the name on the front of the jersey. This game has Texas written all over it. It took a career high from Marcus Garrett (not a scorer) to beat Texas by 2 at the fieldhouse. Texas is 10-9 but many of those losses were very close. The problem with KU, they’re essentially playing a four guard lineup without any shooters. Vick has been good this year from deep but he’s still ver streaky. Obviously, everything goes through Lawson but there’s so much he has to do for this team to win. It wouldn’t surprise me if KU won because Bill Self clowns on Shaka Smart, but to say KU has more talent and can’t lose back to back games is absurd.
     

    come on man. With a name like KC 4 Life I imagine you follow this team closely as do I. You should know that a four guard line up took KU to the final four last year? Yes the 4 guards last year were a lot better, but the style of play itself is not the problem. As far as talent there's one player on Texas that would start on Kansas. Mitch lightfoot would be the second most talented player on Texas and he doesnt see the floor for KU?

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    Quote Originally Posted by KC_4_LIFE:

    Lolololol you really think THIS KU team has more talent that Texas? Give me a break, you’re just looking at the name on the front of the jersey. This game has Texas written all over it. It took a career high from Marcus Garrett (not a scorer) to beat Texas by 2 at the fieldhouse. Texas is 10-9 but many of those losses were very close. The problem with KU, they’re essentially playing a four guard lineup without any shooters. Vick has been good this year from deep but he’s still ver streaky. Obviously, everything goes through Lawson but there’s so much he has to do for this team to win. It wouldn’t surprise me if KU won because Bill Self clowns on Shaka Smart, but to say KU has more talent and can’t lose back to back games is absurd.
     

    come on man. With a name like KC 4 Life I imagine you follow this team closely as do I. You should know that a four guard line up took KU to the final four last year? Yes the 4 guards last year were a lot better, but the style of play itself is not the problem. As far as talent there's one player on Texas that would start on Kansas. Mitch lightfoot would be the second most talented player on Texas and he doesnt see the floor for KU?

     
    KC_4_LIFE
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 2:44 PM ET #17

    Last years ku team could shoot the three with the best of them 
    Don’t let the last play affect the next play
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    Last years ku team could shoot the three with the best of them 
     
    easymoney1313
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 2:48 PM ET #18

    bill self is 7-0 against shaka smart. I think it'll be close but i just cant bet against that

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    bill self is 7-0 against shaka smart. I think it'll be close but i just cant bet against that

     
    TheSquare
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 2:48 PM ET #19

    Quote Originally Posted by MoPinkie:

    KU opened as favorite -1 and quickly flipped to Tex-1 and now sits @ -1.5. I'd say watch line and wait til just before game time. IF you like Kansas I would stay away UNLESS game goes to a pick or KU becomes fave.

    I need some help here because I don't understand your logic. paint_help So, if I want to bet Kansas, instead of taking them at PLUS points, I should wait until they're minus points? That makes ABSOLUTELY no sense to me.  Unless you're trying to say that the  line movement of making Kansas a favorite "indicates" that it is the "correct" play? Where if it's a favorite, it's not the "correct/winning" play?

    "Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoPinkie:

    KU opened as favorite -1 and quickly flipped to Tex-1 and now sits @ -1.5. I'd say watch line and wait til just before game time. IF you like Kansas I would stay away UNLESS game goes to a pick or KU becomes fave.

    I need some help here because I don't understand your logic. paint_help So, if I want to bet Kansas, instead of taking them at PLUS points, I should wait until they're minus points? That makes ABSOLUTELY no sense to me.  Unless you're trying to say that the  line movement of making Kansas a favorite "indicates" that it is the "correct" play? Where if it's a favorite, it's not the "correct/winning" play?

     
    TheSquare
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 3:03 PM ET #20

    ^^ Correction

    Where if Kansas is a dog, it's not the "correct/winning" play?

    "Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
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    ^^ Correction

    Where if Kansas is a dog, it's not the "correct/winning" play?

     
    CouchCapper
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 3:12 PM ET #21

    Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:

    Quote Originally Posted by MoPinkie:

    KU opened as favorite -1 and quickly flipped to Tex-1 and now sits @ -1.5. I'd say watch line and wait til just before game time. IF you like Kansas I would stay away UNLESS game goes to a pick or KU becomes fave.
    I need some help here because I don't understand your logic.  So, if I want to bet Kansas, instead of taking them at PLUS points, I should wait until they're minus points? That makes ABSOLUTELY no sense to me.  Unless you're trying to say that the  line movement of making Kansas a favorite "indicates" that it is the "correct" play? Where if it's a favorite, it's not the "correct/winning" play?

    He isn't implying that taking them ML is better than +1, he is advising the OP wait to watch the line movement for indication of where the smart money is going. Since the line opened favoring KU and actually flipped to +2, it shows significant money is coming in on TX. 

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:

    Quote Originally Posted by MoPinkie:

    KU opened as favorite -1 and quickly flipped to Tex-1 and now sits @ -1.5. I'd say watch line and wait til just before game time. IF you like Kansas I would stay away UNLESS game goes to a pick or KU becomes fave.
    I need some help here because I don't understand your logic.  So, if I want to bet Kansas, instead of taking them at PLUS points, I should wait until they're minus points? That makes ABSOLUTELY no sense to me.  Unless you're trying to say that the  line movement of making Kansas a favorite "indicates" that it is the "correct" play? Where if it's a favorite, it's not the "correct/winning" play?

    He isn't implying that taking them ML is better than +1, he is advising the OP wait to watch the line movement for indication of where the smart money is going. Since the line opened favoring KU and actually flipped to +2, it shows significant money is coming in on TX. 

     
    SharpStatsGuy
    SharpStatsGuy
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 3:14 PM ET #22

    Quote Originally Posted by Bmarlin:

    When the Purdue Mich st line did something similar I took Purdue and came back live +12.5Mich st and ended up w a middle. My plan will be to take Tx and if I can get a 8.5 point or better middle with Kansas go for that. 
    And if Kansas goes wire to wire on to the next game. 


    This is a good strategy 
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bmarlin:

    When the Purdue Mich st line did something similar I took Purdue and came back live +12.5Mich st and ended up w a middle. My plan will be to take Tx and if I can get a 8.5 point or better middle with Kansas go for that. 
    And if Kansas goes wire to wire on to the next game. 


    This is a good strategy 
     
    TheSquare
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 3:30 PM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by CouchCapper:

    Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:

    Quote Originally Posted by MoPinkie:

    KU opened as favorite -1 and quickly flipped to Tex-1 and now sits @ -1.5. I'd say watch line and wait til just before game time. IF you like Kansas I would stay away UNLESS game goes to a pick or KU becomes fave.
    I need some help here because I don't understand your logic.  So, if I want to bet Kansas, instead of taking them at PLUS points, I should wait until they're minus points? That makes ABSOLUTELY no sense to me.  Unless you're trying to say that the  line movement of making Kansas a favorite "indicates" that it is the "correct" play? Where if it's a favorite, it's not the "correct/winning" play?
    He isn't implying that taking them ML is better than +1, he is advising the OP wait to watch the line movement for indication of where the smart money is going. Since the line opened favoring KU and actually flipped to +2, it shows significant money is coming in on TX.

    Yeah, I totally forgot to include the line movement due to the "smart money theory" but then again, how can you/I distinguish what "smart" money is? It could easily be an onslaught of "public" money that moves the line back to Kansas being a favorite. I mean, there's no website distinguishing the difference between smart and public money, that's impossible. If anything, a website would just show the number of bets on a particular side also with the amount of money on a side but can't differentiate between "smart" and public money. an_light The only way you could distinguish "sharp" money is if you had an inside source actually working at the physical/online book telling you "Hey, Joe/Jane the respected Sharp, placed "x" amount of dollars on team "x" or account "x" placed a huge wager on team "x"." Also, you guys do realize that the majority of recreational bettors place their bets like an hour or less before tip off? That can easily cause a shift in the line. To sum it up, I say if you want to bet Kansas, bet it now when it's plus points / positive moneyline.. peace_5

    "Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
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    Quote Originally Posted by CouchCapper:

    Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:

    Quote Originally Posted by MoPinkie:

    KU opened as favorite -1 and quickly flipped to Tex-1 and now sits @ -1.5. I'd say watch line and wait til just before game time. IF you like Kansas I would stay away UNLESS game goes to a pick or KU becomes fave.
    I need some help here because I don't understand your logic.  So, if I want to bet Kansas, instead of taking them at PLUS points, I should wait until they're minus points? That makes ABSOLUTELY no sense to me.  Unless you're trying to say that the  line movement of making Kansas a favorite "indicates" that it is the "correct" play? Where if it's a favorite, it's not the "correct/winning" play?
    He isn't implying that taking them ML is better than +1, he is advising the OP wait to watch the line movement for indication of where the smart money is going. Since the line opened favoring KU and actually flipped to +2, it shows significant money is coming in on TX.

    Yeah, I totally forgot to include the line movement due to the "smart money theory" but then again, how can you/I distinguish what "smart" money is? It could easily be an onslaught of "public" money that moves the line back to Kansas being a favorite. I mean, there's no website distinguishing the difference between smart and public money, that's impossible. If anything, a website would just show the number of bets on a particular side also with the amount of money on a side but can't differentiate between "smart" and public money. an_light The only way you could distinguish "sharp" money is if you had an inside source actually working at the physical/online book telling you "Hey, Joe/Jane the respected Sharp, placed "x" amount of dollars on team "x" or account "x" placed a huge wager on team "x"." Also, you guys do realize that the majority of recreational bettors place their bets like an hour or less before tip off? That can easily cause a shift in the line. To sum it up, I say if you want to bet Kansas, bet it now when it's plus points / positive moneyline.. peace_5

     
    easymoney1313
    easymoney1313
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 3:39 PM ET #24

    Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:

    Quote Originally Posted by CouchCapper:

    Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:

    Quote Originally Posted by MoPinkie:

    KU opened as favorite -1 and quickly flipped to Tex-1 and now sits @ -1.5. I'd say watch line and wait til just before game time. IF you like Kansas I would stay away UNLESS game goes to a pick or KU becomes fave.
    I need some help here because I don't understand your logic.  So, if I want to bet Kansas, instead of taking them at PLUS points, I should wait until they're minus points? That makes ABSOLUTELY no sense to me.  Unless you're trying to say that the  line movement of making Kansas a favorite "indicates" that it is the "correct" play? Where if it's a favorite, it's not the "correct/winning" play?
    He isn't implying that taking them ML is better than +1, he is advising the OP wait to watch the line movement for indication of where the smart money is going. Since the line opened favoring KU and actually flipped to +2, it shows significant money is coming in on TX.
    Yeah, I totally forgot to include the line movement due to the "smart money theory" but then again, how can you/I distinguish what "smart" money is? It could easily be an onslaught of "public" money that moves the line back to Kansas being a favorite. I mean, there's no website distinguishing the difference between smart and public money, that's impossible. If anything, a website would just show the number of bets on a particular side also with the amount of money on a side but can't differentiate between "smart" and public money.  The only way you could distinguish "sharp" money is if you had an inside source actually working at the physical/online book telling you "Hey, Joe/Jane the respected Sharp, placed "x" amount of dollars on team "x" or account "x" placed a huge wager on team "x"." Also, you guys do realize that the majority of recreational bettors place their bets like an hour or less before tip off? That can easily cause a shift in the line. To sum it up, I say if you want to bet Kansas, bet it now when it's plus points / positive moneyline..
    sharp money is indeed on texas. This scares me a little. You can tell sharp money is on texas because over 70% of the public is on KU but the line moved from -1 to +2

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:

    Quote Originally Posted by CouchCapper:

    Quote Originally Posted by TheSquare:

    Quote Originally Posted by MoPinkie:

    KU opened as favorite -1 and quickly flipped to Tex-1 and now sits @ -1.5. I'd say watch line and wait til just before game time. IF you like Kansas I would stay away UNLESS game goes to a pick or KU becomes fave.
    I need some help here because I don't understand your logic.  So, if I want to bet Kansas, instead of taking them at PLUS points, I should wait until they're minus points? That makes ABSOLUTELY no sense to me.  Unless you're trying to say that the  line movement of making Kansas a favorite "indicates" that it is the "correct" play? Where if it's a favorite, it's not the "correct/winning" play?
    He isn't implying that taking them ML is better than +1, he is advising the OP wait to watch the line movement for indication of where the smart money is going. Since the line opened favoring KU and actually flipped to +2, it shows significant money is coming in on TX.
    Yeah, I totally forgot to include the line movement due to the "smart money theory" but then again, how can you/I distinguish what "smart" money is? It could easily be an onslaught of "public" money that moves the line back to Kansas being a favorite. I mean, there's no website distinguishing the difference between smart and public money, that's impossible. If anything, a website would just show the number of bets on a particular side also with the amount of money on a side but can't differentiate between "smart" and public money.  The only way you could distinguish "sharp" money is if you had an inside source actually working at the physical/online book telling you "Hey, Joe/Jane the respected Sharp, placed "x" amount of dollars on team "x" or account "x" placed a huge wager on team "x"." Also, you guys do realize that the majority of recreational bettors place their bets like an hour or less before tip off? That can easily cause a shift in the line. To sum it up, I say if you want to bet Kansas, bet it now when it's plus points / positive moneyline..
    sharp money is indeed on texas. This scares me a little. You can tell sharp money is on texas because over 70% of the public is on KU but the line moved from -1 to +2

     
     
    fluffybucker69
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    Posted: Jan. 29, 2019 - 4:10 PM ET #25

    Kansas is a good team to include in an 8 point teaser with the line at +1.  If Texas wins, it is unlikely to be by double digits.  Look at their schedule.  They can't beat anyone by double digits.  This is a team that "gravitates to 0."  They play up to competition and down to competition.

    You got teams like Michigan, Virginia, Kentucky, Clemson (who is off to a bad start but should handle Pitt at home), who are all around -9 in great spots to teaser that with.  Or Wisky who is getting 3 at Nebraska who is playing awful basketball at the moment.  Just a piece of advice.  I don't bet straight against the spread that often, but my strategy is pretty efficient. 

    With that being said if I had to pick this game ATS I'm taking Kansas who is a much better offensive team.

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    Kansas is a good team to include in an 8 point teaser with the line at +1.  If Texas wins, it is unlikely to be by double digits.  Look at their schedule.  They can't beat anyone by double digits.  This is a team that "gravitates to 0."  They play up to competition and down to competition.

    You got teams like Michigan, Virginia, Kentucky, Clemson (who is off to a bad start but should handle Pitt at home), who are all around -9 in great spots to teaser that with.  Or Wisky who is getting 3 at Nebraska who is playing awful basketball at the moment.  Just a piece of advice.  I don't bet straight against the spread that often, but my strategy is pretty efficient. 

    With that being said if I had to pick this game ATS I'm taking Kansas who is a much better offensive team.

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