...This is my #1 against my #6 (cellar) in this half of the MAC. Thus far this year, Ohio is 1-2 in the MAC, but those come against #2, #3, and #4 in this division. I’ve pointed out the few situational spots that didn’t go in their favor (OT game, then opening up conference with 3OT game, then playing uppers immediately after that). They bounced back from those two overtime games and won at Akron on the road. A slight letdown at Kent State the other day, so we get a nice bounce back spot against what I believe to be a lesser. Defensively, Bowling Green brings in a majority of zone defense that will trap in the pressure spots on the floor and they’ll really get out and up the line and focus on getting in passing lanes to prevent easy shots, which is going to be a focus for a play on Ohio. Offensively, Ohio has just the unit to contend with it. Led by PG DJ Cooper, who is easily one of the best PG’s in the MAC at not only scoring and assisting, but he has the ability to get in the lane and beat the zone at any point. He has a flurry of options down low to finish, and he has some shooters on the outside as well. This Ohio team is set up pretty well at going against this type of defense, and having a PG with experience should be a big factor. Ohio Coach Groce has always built his defense on one thing, and that’s defending the interior. He has always had excellent offensive guards come in, so his motto has been that he feels his guards can out-shoot your guards, so he concentrate’s on the paint. It’s worked out well, and it should carry over tonight. A large part of Bowling Green’s focus relies on getting the ball into paint, or at least trying to do so. They don’t possess a single shooter that is consistent, and Groce LOVES these spots. Despite not shooting it all that well, they still have a trio of guards that can score. I just think we have strengths versus weaknesses here, and a pretty nice offensive advantage on my better squad with no real lookahead or letdown in sight. Bowling Green also has rival Akron on deck. I value Ball State better than Eastern Michigan, but this half of the MAC is borderline awful. Same with Western Michigan over Toledo. I’m curious to see if Rhode Island can keep this momentum in the conference going at St. Joseph’s. I don’t feel highly about St. Joseph’s, and I would rate Rhode Island a few spots better. St. Joseph is coming off four straight losses, the first two against high tempo teams, the latter two against slow, physical grind it out styles. Also curious to see how much St. Joseph has left in the tank. Northeastern is probably one of the most undervalued teams in the country but I can’t pin-point if they have given up yet. They’re 0-6 in the conference, but they’ve played the best six teams in the conference thus far. Their defensive #’s haven’t been spectacular, but they have defended when they need to and have been in quite a few of the games. Against this sit back style of defense from Delaware, it would not surprise me at all if they came out with a victory. I rate them as the better team, and the +4.5 looks enticing, but they also have revenge with Drexel on deck. I like Xavier, not laying the chalk. George Washington’s 3-0 in the A-10, but against much lessers. Against top 100 defenses this year, they have scored 51, 46, and 44. This offense is putrid. Shot attempts in those games? 66, 61, and 54. This will be the toughest defense they face this year thus far. Richmond’s coming off a home loss to Rhode Island. Probably the best defense we see from Richmond on the court tonight after a home loss with no lookahead in sight. Wake Forest and Georgia Tech I’m going to skip over, but I think that Georgia Tech over UNC by 20 game was a slight anomaly. Even though Wake’s defense is awful, they don’t really take the type of chances that UNC takes. Not looking at Duke. I value Tulsa slightly better, but I can’t get a grip on Houston. Georgia State on the tail end of a three game roady that’s seen flight delays and three of the best teams in the conference. VCU with a lookahead to Old Dominion Saturday, but I’m not sure how a team can lookahead when the team coming in has already beat you once this year. Revenge game for VCU from a game in which they shot 33% compared to Georgia State’s 50%. I value Kent State a bit more, not worth it. UNI and Wichita would normally be a decent game, but not this year. A few days removed from a Bradley over, I’ll take a shot at the under. Their offense outside of Warren should not be present tonight with Creighton’s trees. Bradley’s offense is at its best when it can get into the paint and kick out or go up. They won’t be able to do much of that tonight. Should be a pretty flat roadtrip for Bradley, with the return trip home against Illinois State. I’m pretty sure those two dates with ISU are the only thing they will get up for the rest of the way. Creighton plays slow enough to keep this under, I need this offense to be looking ahead to Missouri State Saturday. Maybe GameHunter can comment on this, but I would expect Ashford to get a few more minutes than normal tonight guarding Warren? If that happens, that lessens the offense. In addition, Creighton’s big advantage in this game is pounding the ball in the paint, and that chips away at the clock. I value New Mexico slightly better than Utah, not sure how they respond to the hype from the SDST loss...
Thanks for all your hard work. Almost got the reverse moose with the Northwestern over. That last meaningless basket at the end was sick.
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