...Hasn’t been too much said about it, not sure if I’m looking to deep into it but he was benched Saturday in what I would have thought was an important game. I think there is a bit of value in Drake, but I’m not sure I can trust either of these offenses. With that said, both defenses have been good, but both defenses should allow the other teams to at least get a decent amount of shots up. Continuing on, about three of my total losses have occurred due to a lack of offense from Illinois. Jankovich wants to run, he wants to get more uptempo, but it’s a bunch of lingo. It’s not happening. Best player on the court is Rice, ISU has nobody to guard him. And it’s going to be tough for ISU to score on the inside where it gets the majority of its points when VanDeest is in the game for Drake. ISU also has rival and revenge on deck with SIU. Sit back defense for Drake allows ISU to put up shots from the outside which they are horrid at. Spot sets up pretty good for Drake, but I’m not trusting this offense outside of Rice. It’s hard to look at both Evansville and Southern Illinois and think over, but I like the spot in this one. Southern Illinois is coming off four of the slowest teams they’ll play in a row this year in Creighton, ISU, MST, and UNI. Likewise, Evansville is coming off ISU, Drake, and Creighton, another three slow teams. Both teams defenses rate higher number wise than what I would put them at b/c they’re competition is pretty slow paced. Obviously, when looking at the two teams, this total will be helped by two consistent scorers in Fay and Ryan. Without having Teague in the center of the paint, the Saluki defense takes a big hit. Both teams play a sit back style of defense, they take little risks, and both offenses are built to exploit that. Southern is a tough place to play, but Evansville’s coming in with a ton of confidence after finally winning a road game. Are the offenses amazing? Far from. But this situation sets up for a decent up and down game I think. I value UNC a bit more better than Clemson but I have zero interest in either team. I’m not even looking at Texas Tech or Oklahoma. I’m going to take a chance on Michigan and Northwestern pointing to the Under from a statistical and a situational standpoint. Michigan plays slow, and Northwestern likes to do so at times. The Michigan offense has hit a wall lately and the schedule has not been forgiving. They scored 57 at Purdue, 76 Penn State (they shot 57%), then 50 at Wisconsin, 60 Kansas, 64 Ohio State, and most recently 61 at Indiana on the first game of a two game road trip just three days ago. They also gave up 80 in that game at Indiana, it’s safe to say Beilein will have his team prepared to play some defense after that outing. Along with that, their defensive style is the focal point of the under play here. Northwestern runs a somewhat modified Princeton offense with a few back-cuts here and there, and there really won’t be too many risks or chances taken by Beilein’s unit. They stay fundamentally sound, take no chances, don’t really look to block many shots, just let them shoot it and box out and rebound. Defensively, it helps when you are matching up a good perimeter team who likes to take many shots, and it also ensures that there will be very little offensive rebounding. Offensively, Michigan is one of the slowest teams in the country and that’s not likely to change tonight. Northwestern is a team who wants to take risks, they don’t mind getting out of position, and Beilein is going to do the same thing he has done in past years against these types of teams and that’s slow it down, depend on your defense to keep you in the game. Take some chances on offense, but not too many, b/c if you can waste a bit of time, you can break this type of defense down even further. Northwestern won both matchups last year, and they shot 54% and 44% in those matchups. Both games hit 128, and 119 respectively. Northwestern is a bit more offensively sound this year, but this Michigan defense also has another year under it’s belt. Coming off a game in which they allowed 80 points to Indiana, it’s pretty important to come out with a good defense. I don’t expect the offense to do much in terms of scoring, b/c of the schedule they’ve played lately, but we should get a good defense. As for Northwestern, scary offense, but I’ll take my chances. I sort of lean Depaul, sort of don’t. I think this is the type of game they like playing. I could be wrong. I point to the over here, b/c Depaul should be able to score on Marquette’s frontline and Marquette’s guards are faster/quicker/stronger/better. Back to the first game I looked at, not really much value in the SEC to me. A few days ago I alluded to TCU and how they needed to get back to an up and down game to try and turn their luck around. They’ve done that, which started with the Wyoming game, but if they do that tonight, there is probably a pretty good chance BYU runs them out of the gym.
Bets
Michigan/Northwestern Under 134 (2 Units)
Evansville/Southern Illinois Over 125.5 (1 Unit)
DNP: Drake ML-130, Depaul/Marquette Over 150
GL