Posted:
#101
did not play....plays that were close, but did not make the cut
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January Hoops (Cont'd)
Posted:
#103
UNI and Wichita would normally be a decent game, but not this year.
Neil - I have to disagree a little here. The Shockers have a great home record, but we all know UNI will be able to slow it down. Jacobson knows they need to win this game..they cant get in the big dance relying on winning the mvc tourney. Out of their next 6 games, they have 3 easy wins..they need to go 5-1 for a chance for an invite. I think the team is focused and ready to make a run....+8 is alot of points for a game that will end up in the high one-teens...i like the value 
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Posted:
#104
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
...I like UAB, hate their next four: Memphis, Southern Miss, Marshall, and UCF. Hate the SEC. I love this Purdue defense, and coming off a road trip with two losses, we should get a maximum effort against a snail paced Penn State. Iowa came in here and only put up 52 and they’re running this year. This is a flat spot for Penn State with a second game of a roady with the first coming against one of the top teams in the nation in heartbreaking fashion. Their offensive #’s are pretty good, but I’m not impressed outside of Battle. Penn State has been staying in ballgames by playing a slow grind it out style of game, which is what they did for one half in the first meeting with Purdue that totaled 151 and had a 93 point 2H. They’d be smart to slow it down here again like they did the 1H of that meeting, and hopefully it carries over into the 2H. Main basis on pointing to the under is the lack of scoring I think I get from Penn State. Purdue & Jackson shut down Battle in the first meeting as he shot 6-22 from the floor, and it should be the same tonight. Coming off the losses adds to the intrigue of the defense we should see tonight. This is the same Penn State team that put up 39 points on the #1 defense (Maryland). Purdue comes in hungry at #3. I think George Mason waxes Drexel but I’m not touching it. Drexel’s offense is anemic when playing this style of defense that sits back and takes no chances (evidenced by the loss at William & Mary). Drexel’s schedule hasn’t been forgiving, and Mason usually has one or two games a year where they come out and flat out embarrass a decent team. I had this and the 2/9 date with James Madison circled. I’ve had a pretty big mancrush for Iowa State’s defense, and a pretty big non-mancrush for Oklahoma State all year. I don’t really see any value in the game with the current line, but I would lean to the under. The only thing that scares me about that is if Oklahoma State wants to get up and down like they have at home with a nice home court advantage, Iowa State might want to go with them. I’m not sure they’re experienced enough to make it a defensive battle. I will watch and learn from the AM/Texas game. About a week ago, I pointed out I thought the letdown for the FSU win would come the first time it hit the road, and that’s what we have tonight. Miami FL has been somewhat under the radar and they haven’t lost a game at home. Florida State, on the other hand, is probably a bit overvalued. They won their National Title game when they beat Duke and followed that up with a big win at home against an inexperienced NCST team. Outside of Singleton, the offense for Florida State is primarily balanced, which is a not a good trait to have walking into a clear letdown spot. You want to have guys you can count on to score. As for their defense, they’re one of the best in the country. Miami FL is a team on the rise. They finished last in the conference last year, and a big reason I projected them mid-pack in the conference has a bit to do with the conference not being so great, but it also deals with having that extra year of experience with a young team that usually pays dividends. The matchups aren’t all that bad, I’m playing this situationally, and more from an offensive standpoint in that case. If there is one game on the card that stands out, it’s probably Long Beach State. I’m not going to lay more than a possession on the road, but Long Beach should be able to name their #. They’re easily one of the best offenses in the conference and they’re playing one of the worst defenses in the country. Just how bad is Fullerton’s defense? They’ve given up 80+ in four of their six conference games against lesser offenses. The only two games they didn’t give up that much were against snail paced Pacific and Poly. Long Beach State hasn’t been good on the road but those losses come to Utah State, UNC, Arizona State, and Washington. The three away games that they won, they scored 69 at Boise (I’ve commented on their good defense numerous times), 71 at UC Santa Barbara (also commented on their defense), and they even got up 69 on snail Cal Poly. They have double revenge and I see no reason for a letdown. San Diego State in a sandwich game, not sure I can trust Air Force though. Colorado State’s offense has been tremendous, and both teams defensive styles really aren’t shutting down either offense here I don’t think. I want no part of St. Mary’s. Biggest spot of the schedule is coming up though. They go @ Vanderbilt, @ Gonzaga, and @ Portland. Who schedules a trip across country against a bigger conference team before a meeting with the potential WCC Champ…on the road?
Bets
Ohio PK (5 Units)
Miami FL -1 (3 Units)
Bradley/Creighton Under 131 (2 Units)
Penn State/Purdue Under 128 (1 Unit)
DNP: Missouri State -4, Iowa State +5, Iowa State/Oklahoma State Under 134.5, Long Beach State -6, George Mason -7.5
GL
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Posted:
#108
Quote Originally Posted by Liquorinfront:
UNI and Wichita would normally be a decent game, but not this year.
Neil - I have to disagree a little here. The Shockers have a great home record, but we all know UNI will be able to slow it down. Jacobson knows they need to win this game..they cant get in the big dance relying on winning the mvc tourney. Out of their next 6 games, they have 3 easy wins..they need to go 5-1 for a chance for an invite. I think the team is focused and ready to make a run....+8 is alot of points for a game that will end up in the high one-teens...i like the value
By decent I meant entertainment value. Still could be a good game I guess. As of right now, I think both Missouri State and Wichita State are in. Can't really see this conference getting 3 in unless Indiana State continues the way their playing over the next few or if UNI wins 2 out of the three they get against Wichita and Missouri State the rest of the way. Of course, the conference could get three in if either of the other non-top2 don't win the conference tourney.
Will be interesting to see who their bracketbuster opponent is, I think they go on the road this year. Drawn Siena and Old Dominion last few years.
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Posted:
#112
Quote Originally Posted by tkells1414:
Nropp I liked your OHIO play but did you see the problems people have when playing at BG? What is your take on that.
Nropp I liked your OHIO play but did you see the problems people have when playing at BG? What is your take on that.
They've beaten Ohio Dominican, Florida International, Manhattan, Miami OH, and Texas San Antonio at home. The only one I could look at is the Miami OH game in comparison.
They fell behind early in that game, benched all five starters, and received a nice pick-me-up from the five who came off the bench. If those five beat me tonight, so be it. Not really a basis for the play, however. I just think Ohio has the perfect makeup of guards to take advantage of this zone.
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Posted:
#116
Hey nropp- Just wondering why you don't play your DNP's? Looks like your DNP's are hitting at 61% right now. Is there a huge confidence gap between your 1 unit plays and your DNP's? You are hands down the best capper on here. The Covers 'Legend' designation should be reserved solely for you.
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Posted:
#117
Quote Originally Posted by mandy1:
Thanks for posting your plays. One question what do you think about unlv. thanks
Thanks for posting your plays. One question what do you think about unlv. thanks
Think that game's a complete toss-up. UNLV should be able to slow them down, and at the same time score. I'm not overly impressed with the Colorado State defense, but their offensive style sort of makes up for it. Really weird matchup.
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Posted:
#118
Quote Originally Posted by POTUS:
Hey nropp- Just wondering why you don't play your DNP's? Looks like your DNP's are hitting at 61% right now. Is there a huge confidence gap between your 1 unit plays and your DNP's?
DNP's are just some spots I generally don't dig into b/c of a few situational things or games that fall outside the realm of a few rules I'm trying to stick to. Sort of like Poker, want to get in with the "best" hand.
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