Posted:
#51
21- 7 last nite 
0
Is MOLLYDOG CHEATING?
Posted:
#54
@KushMartin2
Why Certain Contest Players Always Get “The Best Line” in College Basketball
There has been a lot of confusion on Covers about one recurring issue:
How can certain players always seem to lock in the best number in college hoops contests?
They aren’t psychic.
They aren’t super-sharp handicappers.
They aren’t fixing games.
What they *are* doing is taking advantage of how the contest lines are updated.
Let’s break it down in simple terms.
---
## 1. Contest Lines Come From Pinnacle
Covers uses Pinnacle as the line source. That part is straightforward.
But here’s the important point:
**Pinnacle updates instantly. Covers updates on a delay.**
Usually around **10–15 minutes**.
This delay is where the entire “advantage” comes from.
---
## 2. College Basketball Lines Move More Than Any Other Sport
In major sports (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB), lines barely move:
* Half a point here
* A point there
* Nothing major
But in smaller college basketball games, early lines can move **5–10 points** in a single morning.
Why?
Because these lines are soft, the limits are low, and sharp bettors hit bad numbers immediately.
Example of what happens all the time:
Pinnacle opens Lindenwood **+3.5**.
Sharp bettors smash it.
Thirty minutes later it’s **Lindenwood -3**.
That’s a **6.5-point swing** — something that never happens in pro sports.
---
## 3. Covers Lines Don’t Move During These Sharp Moves
When Pinnacle jumps from:
**+3.5 ? -3**
Covers is still showing the old number for several minutes.
So while the real world is at **LINW -3**, Covers contestants still see **LINW +3.5**.
That number is stale.
And anybody who enters picks during that gap is getting a line that no longer exists anywhere else.
---
## 4. This Creates “Free Value”
If you can grab:
* +3.5 when the true market is -2
* +4 when the true market is -1
* +2.5 when the true market is -3
you’re basically flipping a coin where someone already tells you the outcome.
This is called **closing line value (CLV)**.
In college basketball, CLV is extremely powerful.
If you beat the close by 3+ points, you win far more often than you lose — even if your actual handicapping is mediocre.
This is why certain players:
* Look unbeatable
* Always get the best number
* Only dominate during college basketball season
* Don’t win in NBA, NHL, MLB, NFL
Because pro sports do not move enough to create stale lines.
College hoops *do*.
---
## 5. These Players Are Not Handicapping Geniuses
Let’s call it what it is:
They are not beating the market.
They are beating **Covers’ 10–15 minute update lag**.
The formula is simple:
1. Watch Pinnacle live.
2. Wait for a big steam move.
3. Jump into Covers before the update hits.
4. Lock in a number that is already outdated.
This is not illegal.
But it’s not “handicapping skill,” either.
It’s timing and exploiting a delay.
---
## 6. Why They Only Win in College Basketball
Because:
* No other sport has wild early-morning line swings
* No other sport is as soft at open
* No other sport creates 4- to 7-point stale numbers
* No other sport gives free CLV the way small-conference CBB does
It’s the perfect storm for gaming the system.
---
## 7. What This Means for Contest Players
If you wonder:
“How does this guy always get the best number?”
The answer is simple:
He’s entering picks during the line-lag window every morning while Pinnacle is moving the market and Covers hasn’t updated yet.
Nothing more.
Nothing less.
No mystery.
6
Posted:
#56
Been reading post after post about Mollydog..... I've experimented with betting JUST his TOTALS, this year, especially for basketball WNBA, College Hoops, and some NBA.... as if you look into his history, it is a great source of consistency producing profitable results in these specific markets...
I also have Betonline open as a source of truth, watching the movements....
Everyone needs to thank Vladieee for the post above..... written up perfectly, professionally laid out .... should be read numerous times, printed, and saved... There is the answer you seek!
View the information, Mollydog's picks, differently from Vladieee's vision..... YOU WILL GAIN AN ADVANTAGE (and become profitable)
Do I bet 50-70 games a day? NO.... more like, I play run, a set.... maybe his first 9 plays of the day, at $50 per, hope to hit at least 5-4.... grab another 7-9-11 game set after the first run turns over..... this is how I began experimenting with the college basketball.....
Thus far, I've experienced A LOT of success..... absolutely profitable this year in all three of those markets!
NBA, WNBA, I play a 3-5 game set of Totals he posts each day..... Key is consistency without adding your own personal influence.... that said, if I start 2-0, or 3-1, I may skip the west coast games....
His early picks, I usually lock in.... I've gained 3-4 points of CLV..... I have also lost 4-5 points by the close, still won the bet.
Take $250, 10 plays of $25..... refresh his picks throughout the day...... you are planting a seed, feed it volume, nurture this bankroll, and let it grow on its own.... WHEN he is posting 55% on those totals, IF you are staying true to "a system", your not going to lose...... TRUST ME!!!
I hear Bill Krackenberger on all the radio and podcast shows, he bets college basketball and prop bets..... I believe him! Best of luck everyone!
0
Posted:
#57
you don't have to play every game....if you miss a huge line move....you can skip that game....
If Molly is hitting 55%, NBA, YOU are NOT hitting at the same rate, due to his improved line advantage... per 100 game set, you will be a couple winners off,
but your now specifically learning this market as you follow it day in and day out.... and it can help you skip a couple L's Mollydog will take that you will not, as well.
Nurture.... If your winning, stop while ahead, regression is coming.... if it's a downswing, skip a day or two....
0
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