@pederson16
"ok...... st mary's -6.5 ..... why? pretty simple. March. this is where the money is made. who cares about the reg season crown or getting in the dance. Mary's won a share and is in. Those are done. They aren't playing for seeding or anything other than pride. Bennett and his boys are going to lay it down in the WCC tourney. Yea, BYU has played already but Mary's is so experienced and old and has been there before. This is when defense shines and fundamentals and discipline are paramount. That is Mary's to a T. Yes, Mary's only beat BYU by a combined 7 points, but in both games SMC shot 30% or worse from 3 and in game 2 BYU shot 50% from 3. All uncharacteristic. I fully expect St Marys to dominate this game and Johnson and Mahaney to have huge games and for Ducas to stretch the D with the 3 and for Saxen to own the boards. BYU is NOT the offense of old with great shooting and 3s raining. They are avg at best on O and emphasize D now. Mary's on the other hand is top 5 in D and top 40 in O efficiencies. I have this line at -12 on neutral so I see 5-6 points of value. Not to mention, Mary's will be fresh and that helps the legs on defense. BYUs 3rd game in 4 nights. THat will affect them, maybe not early, but over a hard fought physcial 40 minute game they will wane and SMC will get stronger. Hence why not playing 1H line and only game. SMC wears BYU down and will win by DD with great efficiency, minimal turnovers, great FT shooting, and keepign BYU out of the paint and off the FT line. SMC has small advantages in almost every category, which will add up. They also completely limit outside shots as they run teams off the 3 pt line. I expect BYU to have trouble finding points as they will have to work to find openings in the mid-range game. They do shoot 53% from 2 but SMC has the height adv as well and I look for them to force difficult shots all night. On the other end, SMC will have open 3 pt looks almost every possession. SMC shoots 37% from 3. They will slaughter BYU if they are hitting this avg or better, which I believe they will. And if BYU plays up in their face, Johnson and Mahaney will have a field day in penetration to the rim and get BYU in major foul trouble potentially. SMC has multiple ways to win this and score effectively. BYU has 1 single way. I side with SMC for so many reasons to get a convincing win and be in good form for a Gonzaga trilogy matchup"
dang!! missed this post!
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