Holmey's $$$$ Thread SATURDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.05.16

Quote Originally Posted by grandmastertim:

Great job so far in this thread, gotta thank you holmey for running this thing. I'm mostly a lurker around here but just had to chime in on a game tomorrow that is as gross as it gets, Minnesota at Rutgers. Being a gophers fan hasn't been easy this year (or most tbh) but this line is too juicy to pass up. I'll admit that statement is laughable considering im taking Rutgers getting only 2. But Joey King is listed as doubtful and I'm hearing he's out and we know about the three suspended players along with Carlos Morris being dismissed. Gophers literally have one guard (walk on freshman) playing, have not been competitive last two games since suspensions, which included King, and have generally been abysmal on the road all year including non conf. I realize we're backing a winless Rutgers team but they've been competitive in stretches and I have to believe they will be "up" for this game as its their last chance for a win. Sanders is back, Rutgers last chance for a win, and a 6 man depleted gophers rotation with zero shooters and one guard. If the gophers win this game I will be shocked. Give me $$$$Rutgers +2 for my first and maybe only play in here! GL to all!

Quote Originally Posted by worthbob:

love that early pick USC-holmey. My $$$$ is a Texas Tech team at home, having a stellar season, very strong ATS home record 8-5, 13-3 SU at home. K ST, 2-12 SU as an underdog. Tex Tech -4.5 is solid. Tubby Smith has this team playing with a lot of confidence. Last home game, and a revenge game, losing in January to K st on the road 83-70.. Tech 5-2 last 7 ATS and SU. bad outing last game crushed at WVA, but that has occurred to many Big 12 teams visiting Morgantown this season. See Texas Tech bounce back to finish regular season winning by double digits here,$$$$ TEXAS TECH -4.5

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Quote Originally Posted by beardown1123:

$$$$ Cal -4    Cal vs Az StHolmey im not sure if i have 4 for this week already.  Can you double check for me.  I just missed this line at -3.5 but still love it at -4.  Cal is one of the best teams in the pac 12 and a team that can make a run in the tourney due to their NBA level talent.  They just came off a tough loss at Arizona.  They were leading almost the entire game.  That was with Jaylen Brown being in foul trouble and barely playing.  Arizona is the toughest place to play in the pac 12 and they let it slip away.  They're loaded with talent, Jaylen Brown who i already mentioned is a lottery pick, Ivan Raab- lottery pick and he's coming off a great game at arizona, Tyrone Wallace - will be an nba player and Jabari Bird who has been coming into his own lately with some really good shooting.  They also have matthews who comes off the bench and always puts up solid numbers.  Cal has a lot to play for right now, they need this win to lock up the 3 seed in the pac 12 tourney.  With a loss to ASU they'll fall to the 4 seed and arizona will move into the 3 seed.  Seeding in the pac can end up being pretty important because the conference is tougher than it has ever been, so they have a lot on the line.  Not to mention they're not going to want to go into the pac 12 tournament with two losses in a row.  ASU has hopes of NIT maybe.  So nothing on the line except last home game/senior night. Stadium probably won't even be full so i expect cal to take full advantage of this and have a big bounce back game.  I think jaylen and rabb will have big games as well as wallace and bird.  I think overall they're just way more talented than asu and it'll show tomorrow.  If they don't for some reason blow them out right out of the gate they'll definitely pull away in the second half for an easy win.  Cal -4!  Good luck all! Fyi.. another play i am on as well is Kansas -9.5 at home against Iowa St.  Contemplated this being my  $$$$ bet but cal was my first instinct. Kansas has been the best team in college basketball the past few weeks.  Iowa st is one of the few teams that beat them this year.  Revenge game coupled with the last home game at the Phog spells something ugly coming for Iowa st.  Kansas is rolling and they're gonna keep on rolling right through iowa st.  Iowa st has lost 4 out of their last 5 road games and the only road game they won was against terrible oklahoma st.  GL for anyone who jumps on this with me.

Quote Originally Posted by USC_Holmey:

Getting this one down early.

$$$$ = Cal (-3.5) over Arizona State

Cal is a Sweet 16 team.  Maybe even Elite 18.  ASU is an NIT team if they are lucky.  Since Cal became "whole" (meaning since their leader and point guard Tyrone Wallace came back), they have been easily the best team in the Pac-12.  They had a rough loss on Thursday at Arizona, but, they had that game won if Gabe York hadn't buried 3-stright 3-pointers in the last few minutes to turn a 6-point lead into a loss.  Had York missed any of those, we would be talking about a Cal team that has steamrolled the entire Pac-12 and won 8 in a row.  I think the fact they lost and ASU won on Thursday turned this line from an 8-pt spread into a 3.5-pt spread.  I will gladly take that line and go with it.

There will be a lot of "TRAP LINE" talk around these boards all day Saturday, but a trap line is in the eye of the beholder and they hit at a 50-50 rate.  The last Pac-12 "trap line" was Oregon State and they got beat down by USC.  I don't look at line movements and what other people say are traps.  I bet based on what I watch and what I know.  I know Cal and ASU and I think Cal is a far better team in this spot.

ASU is down to just two decent bench players, and calling them "decent" is being nice.  Cal has 3 or 4 NBA players on their roster while ASU has nobody close.  Cal has so much length and athleticism that ASU is going to have a horrible time trying to score inside of 15 feet and even Cal's guards have a large length advantage over ASU's, so the Devil guards will have a hard time getting open shots too.  I think Wallace and Bird take advantage of their counterparts and just light up ASU while Rabb dominates the middle, like he did against Arizona, even though Arizona's paint players are faaaaar better than ASU's.  ASU's depleted squad may keep it close for a little while, but Cal pulls away for a double-digit win.

Good luck today everyone.

Quote Originally Posted by gatorbear:

$$$$ year to date:  9 - 3
$$$$ this week:  2 - 1
Non $$$$ posted:  3 - 0

I have one more $$$$ play left for the week and am going to take my wares up I-10 about 90 miles to Tallahassee where the Noles are hosting the Orange.

This may not be a popular bet, nevertheless, I will be taking the FSU Seminoles -3.  I think this game may go higher (or can even go lower).  This is a total gut feeling along with some stats that I like.

FSU has a substantial statistical advantage over Cuse in every offensive category (Pts, FG%,3 pt % & FT%(barely) over the entire season as well as the L/5. Also have the edge in rebounding, 31-26 over that same 5 game stretch. The B Bros, Bacon & Beasley, along with Rathan-Mayes forms a very formidable frontcourt that is very long and can score.  Add to that the 7'1, 7'3 & 7'4 skyscrapers in the middle and they are quite elongated. They had lost 5 in a row before their 21 pt blowout of ND last game.  However 3 of those games were on the road at Duke, VT & Cuse (payback is a girl).  Out of those 5, they also lost a heart-breaker at home by 2 to the Canes.

For the Orange, the have won 6 out of their last 10.  Closer analysis shows that 5 of those were at home in the dome and one was at lowly BC.  They have not fared all that well on the road this year going 3-6.

When all is said and done, both teams really need this for NCAA bids. FSU most likely going to the NIT unless they run the ACC tourny.  So I am putting my money on the slightly favored Noles.

My $$$$ play, last of the week is FSU -3 & also the ML once it comes out. Hopefully go 3-1 this week following up a 4-0 last week.

As always, GLTA

Quote Originally Posted by gatorbear:

@Upside,

Yeah I had made note of that. Thanks for pointing that out.  Triple revenge is even sweeter. Who are you liking today?  I may post a couple of non $$$$ plays later.

GL Today

Quote Originally Posted by PicN:

$$$$$$$$ Boston College +9.5$$$$$$$$$