Holmey's $$$$ Thread SATURDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.05.16

$$$$ THREAD CONCEPT - This thread is for all of us to share our expertise with everyone else to benefit the group.

THIS IS NOT A PICKING CONTEST!

PLEASE make special note of this! If you have an area of expertise, please make some $$$$ choices from your area of expertise when you have a game you are confident enough in to call it a "$$$$ PLAY". The difference between a PICK and a $$$$ PLAY is that a PICK is a game you like, a $$$$ PLAY is a game that you KNOW. If you are claiming your choice is a $$$$, and you really have NO true knowledge of that game, then you are just cheating us and posting your PICK just for attention and to see your name on the board.

RULES FOR POSTING - We will not track your $$$$ PLAY if you do not follow these rules. You are welcome to still post your PICK or card, but unless you do the things below, we won't be putting your $$$$ on the spreadsheet.

Only one $$$$  per day and a MAXIMUM of 4 per week. 

A week starts on Mon and ends on Sun.

- No buying points.

- No other "line-manipulations" like teasers, etc.

- No parlays

- No props

- $$$$ PLAYS need to be -129 or lower.  Anything -130 and over, take the -1.5 goals or runs.

- Do not try to cheat on lines. We, as a group, are all over the lines and every time someone gives a stinky spread, it is always called out. If the line is off, the $$$$ doesn't go into the spreadsheet.

AND THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE!

You must give an ORIGINAL explanation as to why you KNOW this $$$$ PLAY will win. And don't just "stat" us to death. Tell us about the game. DO NOT COPY YOUR WRITE-UPS! People on this thread are all over the internet and will find your plagiarism. I guarantee it. You can use Last 10, ATS, etc., numbers to support your argument, but stats from a gambling website are not an explanation.

FOLLOW THESE RULES AND YOUR $$$$ PICK WILL GET TRACKED

Thank you for your understanding and your help in keeping this thread for the benefit of everybody, not just a place for you to blather out random picks and toot your own horn.

Getting this one down early.

$$$$ = Cal (-3.5) over Arizona State

Cal is a Sweet 16 team.  Maybe even Elite 18.  ASU is an NIT team if they are lucky.  Since Cal became "whole" (meaning since their leader and point guard Tyrone Wallace came back), they have been easily the best team in the Pac-12.  They had a rough loss on Thursday at Arizona, but, they had that game won if Gabe York hadn't buried 3-stright 3-pointers in the last few minutes to turn a 6-point lead into a loss.  Had York missed any of those, we would be talking about a Cal team that has steamrolled the entire Pac-12 and won 8 in a row.  I think the fact they lost and ASU won on Thursday turned this line from an 8-pt spread into a 3.5-pt spread.  I will gladly take that line and go with it.

There will be a lot of "TRAP LINE" talk around these boards all day Saturday, but a trap line is in the eye of the beholder and they hit at a 50-50 rate.  The last Pac-12 "trap line" was Oregon State and they got beat down by USC.  I don't look at line movements and what other people say are traps.  I bet based on what I watch and what I know.  I know Cal and ASU and I think Cal is a far better team in this spot.

ASU is down to just two decent bench players, and calling them "decent" is being nice.  Cal has 3 or 4 NBA players on their roster while ASU has nobody close.  Cal has so much length and athleticism that ASU is going to have a horrible time trying to score inside of 15 feet and even Cal's guards have a large length advantage over ASU's, so the Devil guards will have a hard time getting open shots too.  I think Wallace and Bird take advantage of their counterparts and just light up ASU while Rabb dominates the middle, like he did against Arizona, even though Arizona's paint players are faaaaar better than ASU's.  ASU's depleted squad may keep it close for a little while, but Cal pulls away for a double-digit win.

Good luck today everyone.

love that early pick USC-holmey. My $$$$ is a Texas Tech team at home, having a stellar season, very strong ATS home record 8-5, 13-3 SU at home. K ST, 2-12 SU as an underdog. Tex Tech -4.5 is solid. Tubby Smith has this team playing with a lot of confidence. Last home game, and a revenge game, losing in January to K st on the road 83-70.. Tech 5-2 last 7 ATS and SU. bad outing last game crushed at WVA, but that has occurred to many Big 12 teams visiting Morgantown this season. See Texas Tech bounce back to finish regular season winning by double digits here,$$$$ TEXAS TECH -4.5

Anyone hitting Penguins NHL game under 5.5?  It fits that criteria lol. 

REMEMBER A MAX OF 4 $$$$'s PER WEEK!

Several of you have already made 4 this week, so you will have to wait until Monday for your next one.  Thanks!

^^^ I think I'm going to

I'm new to this thread. Tailed on Thursday and went 2-0. Posted my first play Friday with Hornets -3 and had a relatively easy cover.

Why change up on a good thing.

SAT TAR HEELS -1 vs. Duke

Let's face it. Duke is in a catch 22. To beat Carolina they need to run. They can't run because they are only playing 7 deep. If they run, they run out of gas. If they play slow, then Carolina pounds them inside. No way this should be a 1 point spread.

In my opinion, Carolina is 68% or more to win this game and the line sits at basically a pick.

Seems to easy, but I'll bite....UNC -1

Holmey, thanks for the love of the "2-0" record in the bottom of the scoreboard. Hope i can get it into the real leaderboard. Your thread has been a very positive adventure. i pick my next day games very early, around midnight EST. Then, read your thread several times the day of games, combine spices, take out a few ingredients, and make a stew, stir, eat, WIN. That is my analogy. Much appreciated for your efforts my friend.

Love Cal and agree with you. This line seems fishy, no? Should route ASU.

Great job so far in this thread, gotta thank you holmey for running this thing. I'm mostly a lurker around here but just had to chime in on a game tomorrow that is as gross as it gets, Minnesota at Rutgers. Being a gophers fan hasn't been easy this year (or most tbh) but this line is too juicy to pass up. I'll admit that statement is laughable considering im taking Rutgers getting only 2. But Joey King is listed as doubtful and I'm hearing he's out and we know about the three suspended players along with Carlos Morris being dismissed. Gophers literally have one guard (walk on freshman) playing, have not been competitive last two games since suspensions, which included King, and have generally been abysmal on the road all year including non conf. I realize we're backing a winless Rutgers team but they've been competitive in stretches and I have to believe they will be "up" for this game as its their last chance for a win. Sanders is back, Rutgers last chance for a win, and a 6 man depleted gophers rotation with zero shooters and one guard. If the gophers win this game I will be shocked. Give me $$$$Rutgers +2 for my first and maybe only play in here! GL to all!

Hell with it, take the ML sign me up for $$$$Rutgers +whatever it comes out to in the morning.

Though I am pulling for hofstra in the caa tournament ,  I found them virtually unbetable when play a side. On saturday nite the most surprising team is playing the team which has had the most disappointing season when towson takes on northeastern in the nite cap. Have seen Towson up close and I found them to be a strong,deep squad.  Though it can be said that northeastern suffered some key injuries during the season, they have not reached the level of play down the stretch when they had their full complement. 

$$$$ year to date:  9 - 3
$$$$ this week:  2 - 1
Non $$$$ posted:  3 - 0

I have one more $$$$ play left for the week and am going to take my wares up I-10 about 90 miles to Tallahassee where the Noles are hosting the Orange.

This may not be a popular bet, nevertheless, I will be taking the FSU Seminoles -3.  I think this game may go higher (or can even go lower).  This is a total gut feeling along with some stats that I like.

FSU has a substantial statistical advantage over Cuse in every offensive category (Pts, FG%,3 pt % & FT%(barely) over the entire season as well as the L/5. Also have the edge in rebounding, 31-26 over that same 5 game stretch. The B Bros, Bacon & Beasley, along with Rathan-Mayes forms a very formidable frontcourt that is very long and can score.  Add to that the 7'1, 7'3 & 7'4 skyscrapers in the middle and they are quite elongated. They had lost 5 in a row before their 21 pt blowout of ND last game.  However 3 of those games were on the road at Duke, VT & Cuse (payback is a girl).  Out of those 5, they also lost a heart-breaker at home by 2 to the Canes.

For the Orange, the have won 6 out of their last 10.  Closer analysis shows that 5 of those were at home in the dome and one was at lowly BC.  They have not fared all that well on the road this year going 3-6.

When all is said and done, both teams really need this for NCAA bids. FSU most likely going to the NIT unless they run the ACC tourny.  So I am putting my money on the slightly favored Noles.

My $$$$ play, last of the week is FSU -3 & also the ML once it comes out. Hopefully go 3-1 this week following up a 4-0 last week.

As always, GLTA

NOTE: 7'1 Michael Ojo is & has been out for the Noles for some time.  My wager is unaffected.

I am already liking a lot of the plays on the Saturday thread, just have to wait for my book to bring out the lines for me to bet on.  I hope the great analysis keeps on keeping on...

already took cal -3.5 but I'm also creeped out by the small line. anyone know why it's so low?

$$$$ Cal -4    

Vandy +5.5 (buy pt)

Time to tail you guys for money.

My $$$$ play is green bay -10.5
Better ats n better record.
Green bay owned the series this year winning by 20 an 17. Spread around 10 is discount plus green bay lost to Val at home so next game this one i think they will take it out on their opponent. Green bay is 4th scoring team in the nation. 84 points per game. Their defense is horrible though. Other team is worse offense with 60 points per game but their defense is good 80 something ranked.

I think offense by green bay will be too much here. Win by 20 again maybe.

I will have my parlay card later. Freaking marymont one basket away from me cashing another big parlay card 60 bux paying 500.

Tail Saturday is how we do it.

California (-3.5) @ Arizona State 

Tailed with some success hopefully I can contribute.