-I have now won 3 wagers ATS with dogs, but played the ML and lost instead. Happened with VT tonight, and I'm really looking for a plan on how to avoid that. Also lost UNC, but won NCSU and Baylor. Tried to add Texas 2H, but my phone jammed. Such is life...
-I have now won 3 wagers ATS with dogs, but played the ML and lost instead. Happened with VT tonight, and I'm really looking for a plan on how to avoid that. Also lost UNC, but won NCSU and Baylor. Tried to add Texas 2H, but my phone jammed. Such is life...
As bad as I've been with the Pac-10, I've been cash money with home teams in the BIG 12.
Dogs or faves, Big-12 home teams have been saving my life of late.
This week alone...Colorado, OU twice, Baylor...
I don't think the train will stop, and I'm going to try avoiding road teams unless I think they're going to win the game. Seems to me that these college kids are giving up in record numbers on the road when they know they're not winning.
Any advice on what to do with dogs? In CF if it's below a touch I usually hit the ML instead, but it's so different in this sport and everywhere I go i'm wrong it seems
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Quote Originally Posted by swizzol:
BAYLOR was sweet...
As bad as I've been with the Pac-10, I've been cash money with home teams in the BIG 12.
Dogs or faves, Big-12 home teams have been saving my life of late.
This week alone...Colorado, OU twice, Baylor...
I don't think the train will stop, and I'm going to try avoiding road teams unless I think they're going to win the game. Seems to me that these college kids are giving up in record numbers on the road when they know they're not winning.
Any advice on what to do with dogs? In CF if it's below a touch I usually hit the ML instead, but it's so different in this sport and everywhere I go i'm wrong it seems
I saw a crazy stat the day before texas was at Iowa St and Baylor played at Colorado. the Big 12 teams were like 112 -1 at home this year. the only loss was Iowa St.
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I saw a crazy stat the day before texas was at Iowa St and Baylor played at Colorado. the Big 12 teams were like 112 -1 at home this year. the only loss was Iowa St.
Home court is obviously the biggest factor in CBB. In other sports, it's a factor, but not to the same extent as we see in CBB.
So often, we see drastically inferior teams cover or win outright on their home floor. Recent examples this week that stood out were BAYLOR @ COLORADO, OKST @ OU and MIZZOU @ OU. If those games were at Baylor, OK ST or MIZZOU...those 'better' teams would have won those games by double digits...going away.
The biggest misconception about the 'home court advantage' is that the fans and the wild atmosphere in hostile gyms/arenas are the cause for the advantage. This is a very small part of it. Fans love to overstate their importance. The belief in a 6th or 12th man is more of an attempt by fans to associate themselves to their team than anything else. I played college football. Nothing would get me more, then when students, teachers and alumni would say after the game, "We got 'em this week!" or "We almost got 'em...next week we'll show 'em!" I never understood it...What's this we shit??? You didn't run suicides all week, you didn't get your ass kicked at practice and in the game???
The biggest factors when teams go on on the road are a direct result of travel and unfamiliarity with surroundings. Most college kids have done little or no travel prior to their experience as student athletes.
The disruption/lack of routine on road games vs. the presence of routine for home teams is an enormous factor. Take a basketball team who traveled in during the day to play a night game in a given location. While those visiting players are dealing with logistics, a limited shoot around and possibly seeing a location for the first time, the home squad has been sitting around the team dorm all day going thru their gameday routine.
While DUKE, UNC, KANSAS fans would argue their importance as a factor...if we look to smaller conference games and even smaller junior college, D-III games and even high school, the home court advantage still stands true...even for teams that get little or no fan support. Teams that see only close friends and relatives in the stands and routinely play to empty seats, also enjoy a home court advantage. It's not a matter of opinion...the stats bear this out...this is a fact.
Obviously, if a team is so bad, home court sometimes hardly helps. A 3 and 27 team is going to be bad anywhere. Conversely, the mark of great teams is the ability to win anywhere.
Now for the million dollar question...How do we recognize opportunity and cash winning plays off of home court advantage?
0
Home court is obviously the biggest factor in CBB. In other sports, it's a factor, but not to the same extent as we see in CBB.
So often, we see drastically inferior teams cover or win outright on their home floor. Recent examples this week that stood out were BAYLOR @ COLORADO, OKST @ OU and MIZZOU @ OU. If those games were at Baylor, OK ST or MIZZOU...those 'better' teams would have won those games by double digits...going away.
The biggest misconception about the 'home court advantage' is that the fans and the wild atmosphere in hostile gyms/arenas are the cause for the advantage. This is a very small part of it. Fans love to overstate their importance. The belief in a 6th or 12th man is more of an attempt by fans to associate themselves to their team than anything else. I played college football. Nothing would get me more, then when students, teachers and alumni would say after the game, "We got 'em this week!" or "We almost got 'em...next week we'll show 'em!" I never understood it...What's this we shit??? You didn't run suicides all week, you didn't get your ass kicked at practice and in the game???
The biggest factors when teams go on on the road are a direct result of travel and unfamiliarity with surroundings. Most college kids have done little or no travel prior to their experience as student athletes.
The disruption/lack of routine on road games vs. the presence of routine for home teams is an enormous factor. Take a basketball team who traveled in during the day to play a night game in a given location. While those visiting players are dealing with logistics, a limited shoot around and possibly seeing a location for the first time, the home squad has been sitting around the team dorm all day going thru their gameday routine.
While DUKE, UNC, KANSAS fans would argue their importance as a factor...if we look to smaller conference games and even smaller junior college, D-III games and even high school, the home court advantage still stands true...even for teams that get little or no fan support. Teams that see only close friends and relatives in the stands and routinely play to empty seats, also enjoy a home court advantage. It's not a matter of opinion...the stats bear this out...this is a fact.
Obviously, if a team is so bad, home court sometimes hardly helps. A 3 and 27 team is going to be bad anywhere. Conversely, the mark of great teams is the ability to win anywhere.
Now for the million dollar question...How do we recognize opportunity and cash winning plays off of home court advantage?
Good morning Warner. Saw your early guess on the Marq. game -6. What do you think of the Friars + 9. BOL
It's Marquette or nothing for me. Just don't have a huge amount of confidence in PC to take them on the road and I feel like it'd be ML or nothing for them and i'm not that confident
shakey-- sorry to hear that bro
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Quote Originally Posted by 222bad:
Good morning Warner. Saw your early guess on the Marq. game -6. What do you think of the Friars + 9. BOL
It's Marquette or nothing for me. Just don't have a huge amount of confidence in PC to take them on the road and I feel like it'd be ML or nothing for them and i'm not that confident
adding: Connecticut ML (-111) @ Michigan: 1.052/0.948 (Matchbook) Better team who is much bigger and I think they'll make it very hard for UM to score. Hate to play a team stepping out of conference, but this team needs a win and I think they get it after 2 heartbreaking losses to ranked teams this week. UM may frustrate them with the 1-3-1, but I will expect a loss if UM scores a lot here because this play is based on the assumption they won't.
good luck
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***Correction***
Week: 5-7 -2.423 Yesterday: 2-2 +0.328
adding: Connecticut ML (-111) @ Michigan: 1.052/0.948 (Matchbook) Better team who is much bigger and I think they'll make it very hard for UM to score. Hate to play a team stepping out of conference, but this team needs a win and I think they get it after 2 heartbreaking losses to ranked teams this week. UM may frustrate them with the 1-3-1, but I will expect a loss if UM scores a lot here because this play is based on the assumption they won't.
0-1 -1.052 so far, struggling in everything right now...
Looking for a 2H UNDER in the Duke-WFU game considering all the fouls called so far and all the tip-ins. I think halftime in Duke's locker room will be all about getting on the boards, and after seeing both teams in the bonus with 8:43 left I think we'll see a low output.
My projection was 142, which would have qualified for a closing lane play at 148.5 if I were still looking at totals daily...
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TRoe
0-1 -1.052 so far, struggling in everything right now...
Looking for a 2H UNDER in the Duke-WFU game considering all the fouls called so far and all the tip-ins. I think halftime in Duke's locker room will be all about getting on the boards, and after seeing both teams in the bonus with 8:43 left I think we'll see a low output.
My projection was 142, which would have qualified for a closing lane play at 148.5 if I were still looking at totals daily...
adding: Wake Forest-Duke UNDER 80.5 (2H, -110): 2.2/2 (Dimeline) Big 3 at the end of the half is a huge emotional/motivational hazard for Wake. I don't think they'll recover with both teams in foul trouble and I think we see Duke take a big lead and try to squeeze the game out on the offensive end with their "run clock" offense. Doubt the refs will be calling as many fouls, and we have a terrible FT/3pt shooting team in the Deacs trying to make a comeback. Dino calls the troops off early right around 10 so I think this will come through if we get a good start.
good luck
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love this play...
adding: Wake Forest-Duke UNDER 80.5 (2H, -110): 2.2/2 (Dimeline) Big 3 at the end of the half is a huge emotional/motivational hazard for Wake. I don't think they'll recover with both teams in foul trouble and I think we see Duke take a big lead and try to squeeze the game out on the offensive end with their "run clock" offense. Doubt the refs will be calling as many fouls, and we have a terrible FT/3pt shooting team in the Deacs trying to make a comeback. Dino calls the troops off early right around 10 so I think this will come through if we get a good start.
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