Posted:
#1
2010-2011 NCAAB Record:
25-12 @ 68% for +11.8 Units
Tue, 02/15
George Mason Patriots +1
The line move in this one makes no sense to me. Is it because people assume that VCU can't lose twice in a row on their home court? If anyone has any insight please share. In any case, here are my factors why I love GMU tonight:
i) Statistically, GMU has an advantage in a number of critical areas. First of all they're more efficient on offense, ranking #23rd compared to #57 for VCU. The big difference here is in the 3PT shooting. GMU shoots 40% from 3PT line compared to 36% for VCU. Defensively, GMU is one of the best defending the 3, allowing 30% from 'downtown' good for 17th best in NCAAB. Why is this critical? Well because 41% of VCU's FG-attempts are 3-pointers (24th highest), accounting for 34% of their total points scored. GMU is a very efficient team on defense, ranked 39th in the country and I expect them to put constant pressure on VCU's outside shooters, while controling the 'boards' on a defensive end. For comparison, VCU's defensive efficiency is average, as they allow 50% EFG% (#204) and depend on 'pressure' to cause turnovers. The problem is that GMU is #14 in NCAAB in protectin the ball on offense, turning it over only about 17% of the time. I don't see VCU's 'press' being a major problem for them tonight.
ii) George Mason is riding an incredible 12 game ATS winning trend. They are 19-5 ATS on the season, 7-2 ATS on the road, and 13-2 ATS against conference opponents. VCU, on the other hand, is 3-8 ATS in home games, 1-3 ATS after scoring 60 points or less (1-5 ATS in the last couple of years), and 3-7 ATS facing tough defensive teams that tive up less than 64 ppg. The trends all point in GMU's favor.
iii) Finally the most critical factor for me is the current form of these two teams. In its last 5 games GMU is 5-0 ATS, scoring 79 ppg while allowing 63 ppg on defense, holding their opponents to 38% from the field. VCU is 2-3 ATS in the same time-frame, scoring 74 ppg on offense, but allowing 74 ppg on a defensive end. Even if you take out the points in the double OT game against Delaware, VCU is allowing 72 ppg in their last 5. What's worse is that they're allowing teams to shoot 50% from the field in this time-frame. It's just not going to get-it done against an explosive offensive team like George Mason.
GMU is a better team statistically, is playing unbelievable 'ball' right now, and are in terrific recent form. What's even more impressive than their 12 game ATS covering streak, is that this team is on 7-0 ATS run against teams with a winning record. They're not just beating 'cup-cakes' but they're taking care of business against good teams. VCU is a good team, but George Mason is much better and I will gladly grab them at +1 tonight.
Good luck!
25-12 @ 68% for +11.8 Units
Tue, 02/15
George Mason Patriots +1
The line move in this one makes no sense to me. Is it because people assume that VCU can't lose twice in a row on their home court? If anyone has any insight please share. In any case, here are my factors why I love GMU tonight:
i) Statistically, GMU has an advantage in a number of critical areas. First of all they're more efficient on offense, ranking #23rd compared to #57 for VCU. The big difference here is in the 3PT shooting. GMU shoots 40% from 3PT line compared to 36% for VCU. Defensively, GMU is one of the best defending the 3, allowing 30% from 'downtown' good for 17th best in NCAAB. Why is this critical? Well because 41% of VCU's FG-attempts are 3-pointers (24th highest), accounting for 34% of their total points scored. GMU is a very efficient team on defense, ranked 39th in the country and I expect them to put constant pressure on VCU's outside shooters, while controling the 'boards' on a defensive end. For comparison, VCU's defensive efficiency is average, as they allow 50% EFG% (#204) and depend on 'pressure' to cause turnovers. The problem is that GMU is #14 in NCAAB in protectin the ball on offense, turning it over only about 17% of the time. I don't see VCU's 'press' being a major problem for them tonight.
ii) George Mason is riding an incredible 12 game ATS winning trend. They are 19-5 ATS on the season, 7-2 ATS on the road, and 13-2 ATS against conference opponents. VCU, on the other hand, is 3-8 ATS in home games, 1-3 ATS after scoring 60 points or less (1-5 ATS in the last couple of years), and 3-7 ATS facing tough defensive teams that tive up less than 64 ppg. The trends all point in GMU's favor.
iii) Finally the most critical factor for me is the current form of these two teams. In its last 5 games GMU is 5-0 ATS, scoring 79 ppg while allowing 63 ppg on defense, holding their opponents to 38% from the field. VCU is 2-3 ATS in the same time-frame, scoring 74 ppg on offense, but allowing 74 ppg on a defensive end. Even if you take out the points in the double OT game against Delaware, VCU is allowing 72 ppg in their last 5. What's worse is that they're allowing teams to shoot 50% from the field in this time-frame. It's just not going to get-it done against an explosive offensive team like George Mason.
GMU is a better team statistically, is playing unbelievable 'ball' right now, and are in terrific recent form. What's even more impressive than their 12 game ATS covering streak, is that this team is on 7-0 ATS run against teams with a winning record. They're not just beating 'cup-cakes' but they're taking care of business against good teams. VCU is a good team, but George Mason is much better and I will gladly grab them at +1 tonight.
Good luck!
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