Posted:
#1
November: 46-38, +5.20
November Leans: 39-38
December: 65-70, -9.45
December Leans: 67-79
January: 52-39, +15.80
January Leans: 40-37
February: 63-44, +65.90
February Leans: 56-49
March: 45-29, +64.95
March Leans: 25-25
Virginia/Florida
As you may know, I hate going back to the well, but this one holds value. Let’s back this up to March 9th, and Florida’s meeting with Alabama. Here was the analysis prior to that game: I’m playing Bama. Back on February 4th, Florida had a 19-4 record (7-1 in the SEC), and had quite the easy schedule. Then, they lose at Kentucky, get taken out at home to Tennessee, get wins over Bama, Arkansas and Auburn (will expand on these in a minute), then closed out the season with three straight losses to Vandy, Georgia, and Kentucky. That puts them at 3-5 in their last three games. The losses are understandable, yet troubling at the same time. In those losses, it was the defense that didn’t hold up its end of the deal. They yielded an average of 1.21 points per possession. That’s not going to get you very far in the grand scheme of things. Along those same lines, the offense put up a measely 0.99 points on the offensive side of things. Now, they did beat Alabama a few weeks ago, but that was an Alabama squad without Green, and Releford didn’t start, so this was an Alabama team that was reeling and wasn’t able to control the tempo of the game. They still only scored 61 points, a tad below the 1 point per possession barrier. The wins over Arkansas or Auburn aren’t all that impressive given the state of those programs. What you have here is a Florida offense that needs to score to win ballgames and they’re struggling, and against Alabama’s pressure defense with a full roster, I’m not expecting those things to correct themselves. As for Bama, obviously you have concern with how they score, that sort of goes out the window with Florida’s defense (also with them missing Yeguete). With Florida, you have a team that is dynamic on offense, I’ve pointed that out multiple times this year, but you also have a team that relies on the three-pointer like never before. And the most important thing here, is that you have a team that really isn’t designed to play slow and physical. Over the past few years, Donovan’s been the type of coach that can utilize his roster like so, and he’s been a snail. He can’t do that this year, as they’ve sped up the pace quite a bit for that fact alone. And it’s burnt them in slow possession games where they really need a focus on the defensive side of things. Now with Bama, you have a snail. A snail that just played a snail yesterday. In a high possession game, I’m concerned with a back-to-back, but in the pace that they like to play, going snail to snail here is no tough feat. I realize Bama is still missing Mitchell, I’m OK with that. Green’s more important here and Jacobs hardly played the first meeting with a mouth injury. He rebounds better both offensively and defensively. He’s better defensively on the interior not that it will matter in this match-up, and he goes to the line a ton. Florida won the first meeting by 9 points. For over ¾ of that ballgame, Bama didn’t have a single guy who could defend the interior, so those inside looks where they had plenty of chances are taken away today. Which leads me to Florida not doing so. It’s pretty simple with Florida, if you play a zone, they’re going to have a half or two where they just light you up. That’s not the case here today, as Alabama brings pressure on the outside better than any team in the SEC (Kentucky has a bigger interior presence so that’s where their #’s come from). All in all, this line was -3 at Bama a few weeks ago where Bama had an inexperienced lineup to start the game, yet found themselves tied at the half, and found themselves in the ballgame late and a traditionally good foul shooting team sucked from the stripe. Now we go to a neutral and I’m getting another point of value, with a better lineup, not only offensively, but defensively as well against a slumping offense and one that doesn’t produce in a snail? I’ll bite. The only two games Alabama didn’t control the tempo this year came against Arkansas, this one’s a snail, and a game where Florida is unlikely to come out of a slump. Granted, a ton of this comes down to how well Florida shoots from the outside, almost all of their games do so. But this is one of those instances where even if they can shoot it well from the outside against maximum pressure, they’re still going to struggle on the interior unlike the first meeting.
Do a search for Bama, and replace it with Virginia. Eerily similar squads in regards to what they want to do, how bad their offenses suck, and how they prep for the game today. Alabama lost that game by 3, but had multiple chances to get the win. And while Florida did get up 30 three’s, they only made 10 and scored 66 points. Things I took from that game not included in the analysis. First, Florida’s interior defense is flat out awful. Alabama could get to the rim any time they wanted, and even while Florida State would look to double on Green most of the 2H, he still scored whenever he wanted or got to the foul stripe. Losing Yeguete has been big, especially in a snail paced environment which Florida doesn’t want to play. If you look at the Montana game yesterday, its sort of a similar spot here. Donovan’s typically a snail, but he can’t play slow this year. Montana was the same way. Florida’s playing a game here that they just want no part of playing in terms of style. As for Virginia, well, they attack better, they shoot better from the perimeter, and they have a guy named Mike Scott who has been facing double teams all year, and this will probably be the weakest double team he faces. He’s still top 50 in the country in shots and possessions, one of the best scorers in the country, one of the best rebounders, doesn’t turn the ball over, and gets to the foul line a ton. He’s the same build as a JaMychal Green, but much more dynamic. So, I have lost an extra half point of value from that Bama game, but that’s not enough to keep me off here. Virginia’s pack-line makes it hard for teams to get three’s up in a rhythm, so no problem there. Just a tough, tough, tough game for me to avoid. Granted, and I’ve probably said this a million times the last few weeks, but when a three-point shooting team is involved, they can make as many as they want and shoot as many as they want, but if they can’t defend in a snail environment, they are at a huge disadvantage. I’m playing the under here, too with the schemes that present themselves...
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and thanks for your time
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