Posted:
#101
Can't get that 2009 TarHole team out of my head. They streamrolled through everyone in the tourney that year and I keep seeing this UK team doing the same...
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Final Four Hoops
Posted:
#102
You are a great capper and i respect your write ups and analysis but I think you are over analyzing this game way to much. At this point in the tournament you just cannot bet against this Kentucky team. They have 6 guys that will most likely be 1st round picks in the NBA draft next year. If Calapari can't win this year with this squad then he will never win a championship.
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Posted:
#103
[Quote: Originally Posted by hammer22] You are a great capper and i respect your write ups and analysis but I think you are over analyzing this game way to much. /Quote]
Its called paralysis by analysis - the numbers can be spun to support your side..sometimes neil's write ups are so thoughtful an chock full of stats and support that he overlooks something so simple like who is the better team...the cream doesn't always rise.....sometimes the right team wins but doesn't cover...........I get that..
but sometimes its better to follow the KISS philosophy...Keep It Simple Stupid....
Its called paralysis by analysis - the numbers can be spun to support your side..sometimes neil's write ups are so thoughtful an chock full of stats and support that he overlooks something so simple like who is the better team...the cream doesn't always rise.....sometimes the right team wins but doesn't cover...........I get that..
but sometimes its better to follow the KISS philosophy...Keep It Simple Stupid....
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Posted:
#104
Awesome write-up, as usual! Although, my only issue is the hatred between them.
The coaches...yes, the fans...definitely, the players...? They are told to hate them. These UK players are one and done and have no concept of "rivalry" for them personally with Louisville. Miller being a KY kid and played 4 years, he could have a huge game.. In terms of impact, does it play into their effort, passion and performance? Hard to say...
Being a UK and Louisville fan, I love these games when they play, especially here, regardless of the outcome, I have a fav school in the finals....
This game has two scenarios...it will be an easy blow out for UK or UL wins outright. If it is close, I feel Louisville handles the pressure for a major upset.
My only bet today is: Parlay UK 1st H and OSU 1st H
Louisville tends to be a 2nd half team and Kansas seems to start slow every game
Enjoy the games and BOL to all!
The coaches...yes, the fans...definitely, the players...? They are told to hate them. These UK players are one and done and have no concept of "rivalry" for them personally with Louisville. Miller being a KY kid and played 4 years, he could have a huge game.. In terms of impact, does it play into their effort, passion and performance? Hard to say...
Being a UK and Louisville fan, I love these games when they play, especially here, regardless of the outcome, I have a fav school in the finals....
This game has two scenarios...it will be an easy blow out for UK or UL wins outright. If it is close, I feel Louisville handles the pressure for a major upset.
My only bet today is: Parlay UK 1st H and OSU 1st H
Louisville tends to be a 2nd half team and Kansas seems to start slow every game
Enjoy the games and BOL to all!
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Posted:
#105
btw...this UK team is a different team than earlier in the year.
They are hitting on all cylinders....ask the Hoosiers.
Louisville is finally healthy and also hitting on all cylinders, so to cap this game on respective histories can be misleading.
adding: Pleaser $25 yields $412.50
uk-14.5
baylor -13
uconn-7.5
They are hitting on all cylinders....ask the Hoosiers.
Louisville is finally healthy and also hitting on all cylinders, so to cap this game on respective histories can be misleading.
adding: Pleaser $25 yields $412.50
uk-14.5
baylor -13
uconn-7.5
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Posted:
#106
I have read all the posts and in the end the 2) things that are intellectual are A) Coaching with prep time and B) revenge an-these are the current issues that are game changers-UK posters have to respect these and these are at the heart of Nropp's thoughts...
Add a third-Pressure-who by far has the most? Kentucky has to win the tournament to please their fans and they most suredly can't lose on the way to their hated in-state rival. Louisville has nothing, I REPEAT nothing to lose-playing with house money, and KY has a young team. LeBron James come to mind?
in the end smart money looks for value and where is the value on KY now???? I'm stepping up my amount on this one...I wish I bought more Apple at 90.00 3 years ago but learn from history...
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, then I'm all in on the Cats 
Posted:
#109
Quote Originally Posted by tmurda666:
im thinking about putting kentucky & over / kansas moneyline & over in a parlay... any thoughts???
im thinking about putting kentucky & over / kansas moneyline & over in a parlay... any thoughts???
Just 1 thought - if you pick 3 out of 4 correct, you still lose...
Bet 'em SU - don't fuck with parlays...
People who can afford to gamble don't need money, and those who need money can't afford to
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Posted:
#110
Some good discussion in here, some I can agree with, others I cannot. Just to make myself clear, I'm a value guy. Whether you or I or anyone else here thinks that Kentucky is the best team in the country and has the most talent, most NBA players, etc...really has no bearing on what I feel holds the value in this match-up:
Prep Time
Revenge
Defensive Pressure/Scheme
That's all I spelled out on page 1. Those are spots that I have found value in this year, and in past years, and being the value type of guy that I am, those are the focus of my analysis on this game. Did I overlook the match-up? Probably to an extent, but I tend to do those things when you have a few days to break down the game. My goal here, and always has been to throw out "the other stuff". You all know that Kentucky is a stacked team, they have all the talent in the world. You all know that Sullinger and Robinson are good post players. You all know that Anthony Davis and the unibrow are going to block shots.
I focus on the other stuff. Stuff that's not already built into the lines, and I've been doing it and will continue to do it all year. If you visit the thread, you're more than likely not going to see the same stuff that's repeated on the major networks by the so-called experts. I don't focus on that kind of stuff b/c it's covered from every angle. By focusing on the other stuff as I alluded to in page 1, I have found value.
Win or lose, sink or swim, I am going with what I feel holds value. Not off of future NBA talent, not off of a roster that causes match-up problems, or a team that doesn't pressure, or a team that does pressure, or the experience angle present. I found some spots that have held value all year in my eyes. Nothing different, more of the same, and just a spot. Again, win or lose, it's a spot play. And a spot play that I feel holds value, with a key emphasis on "I".
In terms of value, this is no bigger than any other play this year for me. No extra unit sample than what I've gone with on the year just b/c it's the final four. It's just 1 play of 500+.
GL
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Posted:
#113
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
Some good discussion in here, some I can agree with, others I cannot. Just to make myself clear, I'm a value guy. Whether you or I or anyone else here thinks that Kentucky is the best team in the country and has the most talent, most NBA players, etc...really has no bearing on what I feel holds the value in this match-up:
Some good discussion in here, some I can agree with, others I cannot. Just to make myself clear, I'm a value guy. Whether you or I or anyone else here thinks that Kentucky is the best team in the country and has the most talent, most NBA players, etc...really has no bearing on what I feel holds the value in this match-up:
Prep Time
Revenge
Defensive Pressure/Scheme
That's all I spelled out on page 1. Those are spots that I have found value in this year, and in past years, and being the value type of guy that I am, those are the focus of my analysis on this game. Did I overlook the match-up? Probably to an extent, but I tend to do those things when you have a few days to break down the game. My goal here, and always has been to throw out "the other stuff". You all know that Kentucky is a stacked team, they have all the talent in the world. You all know that Sullinger and Robinson are good post players. You all know that Anthony Davis and the unibrow are going to block shots.
I focus on the other stuff. Stuff that's not already built into the lines, and I've been doing it and will continue to do it all year. If you visit the thread, you're more than likely not going to see the same stuff that's repeated on the major networks by the so-called experts. I don't focus on that kind of stuff b/c it's covered from every angle. By focusing on the other stuff as I alluded to in page 1, I have found value.
Win or lose, sink or swim, I am going with what I feel holds value. Not off of future NBA talent, not off of a roster that causes match-up problems, or a team that doesn't pressure, or a team that does pressure, or the experience angle present. I found some spots that have held value all year in my eyes. Nothing different, more of the same, and just a spot. Again, win or lose, it's a spot play. And a spot play that I feel holds value, with a key emphasis on "I".
In terms of value, this is no bigger than any other play this year for me. No extra unit sample than what I've gone with on the year just b/c it's the final four. It's just 1 play of 500+.
GL
That is why I like Louisville! UK is the better team, yes, but I still think Louisville keeps it close and loving the under too. Value is the point you are making and is what I must agree with. UK may easily win by DD's, but I am betting they don't
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
0
Posted:
#120
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
Some good discussion in here, some I can agree with, others I cannot. Just to make myself clear, I'm a value guy. Whether you or I or anyone else here thinks that Kentucky is the best team in the country and has the most talent, most NBA players, etc...really has no bearing on what I feel holds the value in this match-up:
Some good discussion in here, some I can agree with, others I cannot. Just to make myself clear, I'm a value guy. Whether you or I or anyone else here thinks that Kentucky is the best team in the country and has the most talent, most NBA players, etc...really has no bearing on what I feel holds the value in this match-up:
Prep Time
Revenge
Defensive Pressure/Scheme
That's all I spelled out on page 1. Those are spots that I have found value in this year, and in past years, and being the value type of guy that I am, those are the focus of my analysis on this game. Did I overlook the match-up? Probably to an extent, but I tend to do those things when you have a few days to break down the game. My goal here, and always has been to throw out "the other stuff". You all know that Kentucky is a stacked team, they have all the talent in the world. You all know that Sullinger and Robinson are good post players. You all know that Anthony Davis and the unibrow are going to block shots.
I focus on the other stuff. Stuff that's not already built into the lines, and I've been doing it and will continue to do it all year. If you visit the thread, you're more than likely not going to see the same stuff that's repeated on the major networks by the so-called experts. I don't focus on that kind of stuff b/c it's covered from every angle. By focusing on the other stuff as I alluded to in page 1, I have found value.
Win or lose, sink or swim, I am going with what I feel holds value. Not off of future NBA talent, not off of a roster that causes match-up problems, or a team that doesn't pressure, or a team that does pressure, or the experience angle present. I found some spots that have held value all year in my eyes. Nothing different, more of the same, and just a spot. Again, win or lose, it's a spot play. And a spot play that I feel holds value, with a key emphasis on "I".
In terms of value, this is no bigger than any other play this year for me. No extra unit sample than what I've gone with on the year just b/c it's the final four. It's just 1 play of 500+.
GL
high level, sophisticated handicapping as always... i'm actually going to go back and re-read all your threads from this year in a few months or at least before next b-ball season. i probably classify as a fanboy, but goddammit, there's always some really profound and enlightening stuff in your picks. best of luck to you, neill....
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Posted:
#122
Quote Originally Posted by wmi799:
I hope you are kidding as only the dumbest fucking person in the world would believe that.
sigh...I just assumed the emoticons spoke for themselves and my not so subtle sarcasm...I obviously shouldn't assume anything w so many "dumb fucking people" out there in the world reading this thread...GL with your UofL wager.
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