Posted:
#26
Quote Originally Posted by JMC1984:
Shut up.
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Final Four Hoops
Posted:
#27
nropp - I could use your help with some futures. Currently holding Kansas +1800 for a potential 3500, Ohio St at +450 for a potential 3300, and Kentucky at +150 for a potential 750. How would you go about hedging out. I see that you have a small ML play here - do you really think that anyone can take UK out or should I be hedging big on UK to win the title right now at -140? Your help is appreciated.
@Gfunkera86
@Gfunkera86
0
Posted:
#28
Great analysis, the only problem with it is that it's the players actually play the game. And in this game, the team Kentucky is putting on the floor is going to be playing in the NBA next year. And the team Louisville is, well won't be.
And this one, like the Baylor game (where Neil had a bunch of great observations and took Baylor +8), will be over about 10 min into it (just like the Baylor game) and you'll all be sweating hoping for a backdoor cover.
GL.
5* UK -8.5
And this one, like the Baylor game (where Neil had a bunch of great observations and took Baylor +8), will be over about 10 min into it (just like the Baylor game) and you'll all be sweating hoping for a backdoor cover.
GL.
5* UK -8.5
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Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:
Rick Pitino +8.5 is all the public will see in their attempt to knockout the giant.
While the line says KEN by DD's,bettors would rather rest their heads on a COMFORTABLE pillow called getting points.
Great insight. I forgot to incorporate public percentages and line perception into the analysis here, as I have done all year long. I choose to focus on the game and the players involved, not the half a point line move, or "what the final score should be" in relation to the line.
GL
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Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by Gfunkera86:
nropp - I could use your help with some futures. Currently holding Kansas +1800 for a potential 3500, Ohio St at +450 for a potential 3300, and Kentucky at +150 for a potential 750. How would you go about hedging out. I see that you have a small ML play here - do you really think that anyone can take UK out or should I be hedging big on UK to win the title right now at -140? Your help is appreciated.
@Gfunkera86
nropp - I could use your help with some futures. Currently holding Kansas +1800 for a potential 3500, Ohio St at +450 for a potential 3300, and Kentucky at +150 for a potential 750. How would you go about hedging out. I see that you have a small ML play here - do you really think that anyone can take UK out or should I be hedging big on UK to win the title right now at -140? Your help is appreciated.
@Gfunkera86
I wouldn't even know where to begin with this situation to be honest.
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Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by KingScorpio:
Rick Pitino +8.5 is all the public will see in their attempt to knockout the giant.
While the line says KEN by DD's,bettors would rather rest their heads on a COMFORTABLE pillow called getting points.
I was leaning Kentucky until I read your post. Biggest mush on covers. You cant read lines for shit and constantly out think yourself.
If LVille sticks around with their defense, are you leaning the U137? I dont htink they can put up 70 on Kentucky.
Great writeup Ropp.
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Posted:
#34
Quote Originally Posted by wtfe:
Great analysis, the only problem with it is that it's the players actually play the game. And in this game, the team Kentucky is putting on the floor is going to be playing in the NBA next year. And the team Louisville is, well won't be.
And this one, like the Baylor game (where Neil had a bunch of great observations and took Baylor +8), will be over about 10 min into it (just like the Baylor game) and you'll all be sweating hoping for a backdoor cover.
GL.
5* UK -8.5
Great analysis, the only problem with it is that it's the players actually play the game. And in this game, the team Kentucky is putting on the floor is going to be playing in the NBA next year. And the team Louisville is, well won't be.
And this one, like the Baylor game (where Neil had a bunch of great observations and took Baylor +8), will be over about 10 min into it (just like the Baylor game) and you'll all be sweating hoping for a backdoor cover.
GL.
5* UK -8.5
I'm surprised you have enough money left after you used this same situation last year going against VCU as they took down the Morris brothers, Josh Selby, Chris Singleton, and Jajuan Johnson. Great insight again, but I don't see a correlation between NCAA and NBA in regards to tournament victories, and/or covering a line of 8.5 points.
GL
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Posted:
#35
Good luck nropp...I think Louisville will have a great shot at the win...imo this davis kid is too small for the nba game at this point...he'd be a tyler hansborough in the pros unless he puts on some muscle...although he could fill the tayshon prince roll on a shit team like pistons...btw nropp I've seen u post in the NBA forum once before...do u follow pro ball? And will you be focusing your attention there once the tournament is over?
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Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
Great insight. I forgot to incorporate public percentages and line perception into the analysis here, as I have done all year long. I choose to focus on the game and the players involved, not the half a point line move, or "what the final score should be" in relation to the line.
GL
Wish that's all it took.GL
There is no 100% cappers in the world
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Posted:
#37
And by the way all u dumbfucks talking about copy n paste are just jealous little punks who lose every week and wish you had the skills nropp does! Did u ever consider he could have typed it on Microsoft word etc then copy n pasted the write up to covers for the simple fact it would be a pain in the ass to do it on covers bc as u can see you can only fit so much text inthe thread without lapping over as such...but you can tell its nropp's words if u follow his threads
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Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
I was leaning Kentucky until I read your post. Biggest mush on covers. You cant read lines for shit and constantly out think yourself.
If LVille sticks around with their defense, are you leaning the U137? I dont htink they can put up 70 on Kentucky.
Great writeup Ropp.
I was leaning Kentucky until I read your post. Biggest mush on covers. You cant read lines for shit and constantly out think yourself.
If LVille sticks around with their defense, are you leaning the U137? I dont htink they can put up 70 on Kentucky.
Great writeup Ropp.
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Posted:
#41
Did u ever consider he could have typed it on Microsoft word etc then copy
Thats exactly what I meant no disrespect I love NRopp's posts and have followed them all season. It obvious that a great deal of thought research and reasoning goes into his posts and I'm sure he takes a lot of time getting them right so it only makes sense they are prepped ahead of time.Nothing wrong with copy and paste anyway from my perspective unless it's ones intention to plagiarize as their own work.
Nropp work is
0
Posted:
#44
NROPP - Been following you for a while now and appreciate the time and hard work you put in. Also your dedication to bring winners in here to help others for free. THANK YOU for the winners!!
Was just wondering - is CBB your forte, or do you excel in other sports also?? With bases coming up, weren't sure if you capped those or other sports. If so, would you be posting in the appropriate forum?
THANKS AGAIN
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Evelyn Wood speed typing course.
Posted:
#48
Vary bewteen 5-8 points till crunch time, then the fouls begin and this patino team can't shoot from beyond the arc to save their lives ( the worst patino has ever had)... so this game could easily stretch itself to 12-15 ... I know I'm a homer but I have watched every game this year... the biggest factor is what defense the cards come out w... their man to man will get ate up... and their zone will get exploited by miller and lamb... I assume the soft zone will give uk fits, just not sure if they can maintain the pressure throughout the whole game given the ability of both teams to run and pressure the ball. I think these teams have a lot of the same fundamentals, w UK having the edge at every position on the court... look for Davis to show his colors... he takes the 5th most shots on this team... I believe he takes more shots and shows why he is the national player of the year
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Posted:
#49
Quote Originally Posted by nropp11:
I'm surprised you have enough money left after you used this same situation last year going against VCU as they took down the Morris brothers, Josh Selby, Chris Singleton, and Jajuan Johnson. Great insight again, but I don't see a correlation between NCAA and NBA in regards to tournament victories, and/or covering a line of 8.5 points.
Well just to be clear, I ML'ed VCU (and played them bigger on the pts) all the way to the Final Four last year. Probably my biggest plays last year...just like Kentucky has been this tournament (which really screwed me in the first round, but has been cash since).
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Posted:
#50
Just have to say, great work.
These last two games...you could write up another 5K words on.
And though I lean your way, for all the homework (been there and do that) I just wonder about the refs. How much will that whistle blow, and the thing you can't cap (like turnovers in football) is those refs and how tight they call the game or let them play, 1st half, last ten minutes, etc. Last couple of games they are calling touch fowls early and often and to the end. Like an umpire in MLB, sure would like to study the refs here. I'd like to see a few paragraphs on those stats and what it does to the totals and favs. And those points...I've played them this tourney, and been really burned by 1/2 a point, a few times when the team down a few "extends the game" by fouling with 3 minutes left, it just throws the "points" play out the window, because there is no tomorrow and the team down would risk losing by 15 than not win at all. I think this game comes down to who will win. As much as I want to play this one, I might just stay away. Sometimes cash in the pocket is a win. What I do take from your read is the under looks like the best play of all. But then, that last 3 minutes spent mostly at the foul line, if that's how it plays out, will spoil that too.
Would like to hear your comments on how the refs play into this one.
Just wanted to say much respect for your write up and best of fortunes to you.
These last two games...you could write up another 5K words on.
And though I lean your way, for all the homework (been there and do that) I just wonder about the refs. How much will that whistle blow, and the thing you can't cap (like turnovers in football) is those refs and how tight they call the game or let them play, 1st half, last ten minutes, etc. Last couple of games they are calling touch fowls early and often and to the end. Like an umpire in MLB, sure would like to study the refs here. I'd like to see a few paragraphs on those stats and what it does to the totals and favs. And those points...I've played them this tourney, and been really burned by 1/2 a point, a few times when the team down a few "extends the game" by fouling with 3 minutes left, it just throws the "points" play out the window, because there is no tomorrow and the team down would risk losing by 15 than not win at all. I think this game comes down to who will win. As much as I want to play this one, I might just stay away. Sometimes cash in the pocket is a win. What I do take from your read is the under looks like the best play of all. But then, that last 3 minutes spent mostly at the foul line, if that's how it plays out, will spoil that too.
Would like to hear your comments on how the refs play into this one.
Just wanted to say much respect for your write up and best of fortunes to you.
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