Final Four Hoops

  Two things that set UConn and Louisville apart;

         #1.  U Conn won 4 games in 4 days in the Big East Tournament to start their run, and Louisville won three games in three days, to start theirs..

         #2. UConn went on to win the National Championship, and Louisville won't.

                                          BOL

Holy Shit

Fantastic write-up as usual......pretty unreal analysis. I know these teams though like the back of my hand, so I'm sticking with Kentucky.

Kentucky won comfortably in the first match-up(don't let the score fool you) and they have improved a lot since then. I do think U of L has also improved, but they also don't have Buckles who they had the first game as an extra body. Don't forget T. Jones was also coming back from a dislocated finger and obviously by his 0'fer from the line and 1'fer form the field he was clearly affected.

Anthony Davis also only played 27 minutes and was in foul trouble. That was an anomoly playing against a non-offensive threat like Dieng. Davis really was only in foul trouble 2 or 3 other times this whole season and it was against a strong offensive threat in the paint....Cody Zeller. 

U of L shot better both from the field and 3 point land than UK and UK still won easy. the only advantage UK had was at the free throw line, but that is to be expected this game again due to size and athleticism and attacking the rim. I certainly don't expect Uof L to shoot better than UK again this game.

Also, I would factor in that UK just played several games in New Orleans for the SEC tourney. Comfort with the court and scenery might be a small advantage, but I think anything giving an advantage period is important. Crowd will also be a UK crowd as usual.

Bottom line is the game could be sloppy due to the rivalry, whats at stake, and how both teams play great defense. I just think UK has too mnay playmakers, size and athleticism for U of  L to contain for 40 minutes.

I see UK winning by double digits. Probably 11-13 range. Going to be a war though with neither team backing down and crazy competive players and coaches. Let's just hope the refs call a good game and let the players play.

Much respect for your analysis and thoghts dude.......I'm just on the other side and riding the freight train on this one.

 Hey Ropp..... You have influenced my trend of thinking in so many plays this NCAA tournament. Some of your plays I followed, some I  was on the other side ! You have made we look at betting in a whole different way!! Many thanks for all your reads !! Love your writeup on Louisville ! Much respect !! Keep up the great work !!

Zima?  

Would be a crazy day in sports if it happened, and it could. Not the 1st time Calipari has taken a much more talented team and run off the rails in crunch time.

And he's surrounded by previous NC coaches.....hmmmm

love it nropp GL 

Great write-up.  BOL with your play.  I have a futures bet on UK to win it all, so I may take the +8.5 and root for a close win by UK.

If Gary Williams says Kentucky can beat the Wizards , then I'm all in on the Cats 

amazing write up. let's go LOU.

03/30/12
09:54PM    5 Team Parlay

 Baseball    938   SFO vs. SDG - Exhibition Baseball
SAN DIEGO PADRES
[Action]
-160  03/30/12
10:05PM     500  9269   
  
Baseball    939   TEX vs. COL - Exhibition Baseball
TEXAS RANGERS
[Action]
-105  03/30/12
10:10PM        
  
Basketball    523   Portland vs. LA Clippers - ESPN
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
+9½   -110  03/30/12
10:45PM        
  
Hockey    16   Dallas vs Vancouver
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
-145  03/30/12
10:05PM        
  
College Basketball    817   Louisville vs. Kentucky - CBS
LOUISVILLE
+9   -110  03/31/12
06:05PM        
  
TOTALS       500             9269

 
after stumbling across this post, i am not even going to consider hedging this play... good luck to the forum. and thanks Nropp, you sir are a invaluable resource.  

GREAT WRITE UP NEAL. BEEN FOLLOWING ALL YEAR AND YOU HAVE MADE ME ALOT OF $. JUST WANTED TO SAY THANKS BECAUSE I DON'T HAVE ALOT OF TIME TO RESEARCH GAMES. BEST OF LUCK

In reading Neil's final four thread this week in addition to this entire message board all season, one thing I can take away from it is that we all defend our analysis to the death -  we can take the same stat and spin it to support opposite sides of the same game. Or we overlook some angle or stat and act like it doesnt matter to our analysis since looking at it blows a hole in our logic and we get into back and forth battles with a poster whos opposite our side and we will never give that person credit for making a valid point because then our selection seems so muich weaker.

 Neil does this too - difference with him is that he wins more than the majority of this board.  

I follow the betting axiom that says you dont bet the dog if you dont think they can win SU....I dont think Pitino can continue the smoke and mirrors show anymore.  Louisville isnt chopped liver by any means  - I have bet them alot this past month but for 32 minutes but they dont have the athleticism to match-up here.  How does Kuric get open?  Kidd-Gilchrist is a match-up problem whether or not Cards play zone or man...If Dieng gets in foul trouble, this could be a disaster for Cards....

Neil what are you leaning in the other game?

i said before and i said it again--- i do respect nropp ive tailed him sime times---but some others like the baylor play well it was obvious that was going to be a spanking, and i do pointed out what came to be, a  sloppy undisciplined baylor team that was rubbish with the ball and trailed soon, at the end baylor backers had a lil ray of hope because kty was letting baylor score in garbage time but it didnt happened---

here well, patiño is a great coach, he sure will have the best oh his boys, but yet again, not all the prep time and the great deffense will or can save louiville, like in all sports u win by scoring pts, and this kty is the kind of team u beat by trying to outscore them, louiville is just dreadful on the offensive side, and kty has too many weapons-- i do think this will be a bit close may be even at the half, but i dont just see louiville containing kty for too long between the hacking and the offensive power kty has this might be a  DD and never look back, cal and the boys wont make the same mistake as donovan and the gators did

Thanks Neill Great write-up bro and super detailed insight ! I don't know how you do it ... But thanks a million !

Ky is just too good. Throw all the stats out the window and all the coaching,
the simple fact is they are by FAR the best team in the tourney this year and could win with one hand tied behind their back.
GL with the play- in basketball with this talent disparity, talent wins.
If someone wants to point to Caliparis team with Wall and Cousins, there is one big difference, that team had great athletes, this team has great and basketball players.

Great insight my man and BOL to you as always!

 Nropp....Question .... have you looked who is officiating this game ?, do you have any info., on #'s on fouls called, call tight games ?, hand checking, more charges ?, etc.... The mind blowing # of times of the Cats getting to line and shooting well, just think it is something to consider. Lou. getting in first half foul trouble could spell trouble ?. Thanks for the help and best of luck on your plays. Ice

nice write up bro, tons of respect on your capping skills and BOL on your picks today.