Fade the Consensus...

Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

I have been developing a list, mainly of the cappers on this site who  have been posting this season.  As you can see, I have been a member of Covers for several years but dont have many posts.  I was mainly a lurker who did what many of you do ...watched to see who the hot cappers were, took the consensus of the hot cappers...threw in a bit of my own reasoning/capping and then tossed my hard earned money to the books..
There was always a good reason why the good cappers lost, and of course...they would adjust their records based on the last 10 or 20 selections where they happened to go 60% winner or so.  It just always seemed that I lost when following them and it really didnt take that long to start the losing.

This year, I sat back and very deliberately thought about my gambling ...and I came to a realization that I was a loser at sports gambling.  And after reading thread after thread after thread year after year after year....that almost everyone else was a loser too.  So, based on the FACT that the HUGE majority lose money in sports gambling...how hard can it be to say that you should really be FADING all the time instead of working hard to JOIN those who lose money ????????????????

However, even with this realization...it was very very hard for me to make the switch to fading...and I finally found out why...Pride.  My ego said.."I don't like this...you arent being a MAN and making your  OWN picks.  You , are a coward.  Make your own picks and lose the money...at least that way you can still be a real MAN...even though you will continue to be broke."

So, it has taken even longer to truly get to the point where I actually put my money down on fading.  And I don't expect any of you who take this path to be any different than me.  You will have a very hard time making the switch from following others to fading others.  But once you do...you will wonder why you did not see it before.

As far as what consensus to fade..it really truly doesn't matter.  You can fade the big Covers consensus tracker...you can pick out a few cappers on this site..which is what I do.  The one I faded earlier in this thread is a very respected capper and a big name here.  Did not scare me in the least to fade him...not even for a second. 

If you are still wondering if fading is the way to go...test it out.  Pick out 5 cappers on this board and , on paper, track them over a week.  Actually do it...don't just say you will and then forget about it or let it go...Spend some time to see if this works.  Pick out the "Best" cappers and track 5 of them...it won't matter.  Find out the truth...know the dirty little secret of sports gambling for yourself...97% of sports gamblers lose money.  As long as you dont fade the extremely rare and lucky guy who actually has a long term documented and verified better than 56% record...you cant go wrong because all the others are fodder for your winning as a fader..

And there is plenty to choose from...you don't have to look far

award..no record posted to this point as I am lazy and only keep track for myself.  However, I may start as of the new year as it will be my first full year of fading.